|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR6.56
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR7.50
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Improving
prospects
|
|
Taking into consideration our recent upgrade of CIMB
Niaga’s earnings forecasts and improved credit costs for CIMB Group
into FY18, we have marginally raised CIMB Group’s FY17/FY18 earnings by
1%/3%, with revised ROEs of 9.6% and 10.6% respectively. We upgrade the
stock to BUY with TP raised to MYR7.50 on a higher 2018 PBV peg of 1.3x
- what differentiates CIMB is the expected expansion in its ROEs into
FY18, versus a step-down in avg ROEs to 12.2% in 2018 from 12.6% in
2017, for its peers.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Operating income
|
15,395.8
|
16,065.3
|
17,022.2
|
18,119.9
|
|
Pre-provision profit
|
6,146.8
|
7,413.6
|
8,155.8
|
8,984.3
|
|
Core net profit
|
3,411.2
|
3,414.4
|
4,440.2
|
5,151.8
|
|
Core EPS (MYR)
|
0.40
|
0.39
|
0.50
|
0.58
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
5.6
|
(2.4)
|
27.4
|
16.0
|
|
Net DPS (MYR)
|
0.14
|
0.20
|
0.25
|
0.29
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
16.3
|
16.7
|
13.1
|
11.3
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.3
|
1.3
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
2.1
|
3.0
|
3.8
|
4.4
|
|
Book value (MYR)
|
4.87
|
5.24
|
5.38
|
5.67
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
8.7
|
7.9
|
9.6
|
10.6
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
0.8
|
0.7
|
0.9
|
1.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.73
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.85
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2Q17: Within
expectations
|
|
2Q17 results and 1st gross DPU of 4.3sen were in line. The
YoY bottomline growth was mainly encouraged by sustained occupancy
rates and positive rental reversions at both prime malls. Our earnings
forecasts and DDM-TP of MYR1.85 (cost of equity: 7.5%) are intact.
IGBREIT is still our top pick for the sector based on its resilient
earnings.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
489.2
|
507.3
|
524.9
|
544.1
|
|
Net property income
|
342.8
|
361.1
|
373.6
|
387.7
|
|
Distributable income
|
291.0
|
317.3
|
328.0
|
342.8
|
|
DPU (sen)
|
7.4
|
7.8
|
8.4
|
8.7
|
|
DPU growth (%)
|
5.1
|
6.3
|
7.4
|
3.8
|
|
Price/DPU(x)
|
23.5
|
22.1
|
20.5
|
19.8
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
|
DPU yield (%)
|
4.3
|
4.5
|
4.9
|
5.1
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
6.9
|
7.6
|
7.9
|
8.1
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
4.9
|
5.4
|
5.6
|
5.8
|
|
Debt/Assets (x)
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR0.88
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR0.92
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Saying goodbye
to MNI
|
|
MPR will recognize an impairment of MYR142.4m from winding
up 21%-owned MNI. Elsewhere, our hopes on an industry-wide adex
recovery this year may have been overly sanguine. We cut FY17/18/19
core net profit forecasts by 93%/76%/70%, DPS to 4sen/1sen/2sen from
8sen/6sen/7sen. This leads to lower end-FY17E ex-goodwill BVPS of
MYR1.02 vs. MYR1.20 previously. Ascribing an unchanged 0.9x peg to
end-FY17E BVPS, our revised TP for MPR is MYR0.92 vs. MYR1.10
previously.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,427.7
|
1,289.0
|
1,195.5
|
1,260.2
|
|
EBITDA
|
325.8
|
163.6
|
103.0
|
112.8
|
|
Core net profit
|
138.7
|
38.7
|
4.7
|
20.0
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
12.5
|
3.5
|
0.4
|
1.8
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(2.4)
|
(72.1)
|
(87.8)
|
323.1
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
10.0
|
8.0
|
4.0
|
1.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
7.0
|
25.1
|
205.3
|
48.5
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.6
|
0.7
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
11.4
|
9.1
|
4.6
|
1.1
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
8.6
|
(3.8)
|
(10.0)
|
1.6
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
5.8
|
1.7
|
0.2
|
1.1
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
4.0
|
7.5
|
9.8
|
8.8
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
2.2
|
1.4
|
|
|
|
|
|
Samuel Yin Shao
Yang
|
|
|
|
Jade Tam
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SECTOR RESEARCH
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
KVLRT 3 gathering steam
by
Adrian Wong
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prasarana Malaysia has awarded the light rail vehicle
(LRV) work package for KVLRT 3 to the consortium of CRRC Zhuzhou
Locomotive Co Ltd, Siemens Ltd China and Tegap Dinamik Sdn Bhd with a
value of MYR1.56b. Thus, we can expect the awards for the major civil
work packages to be next. Maintain our POSITIVE call on the sector
with IJM as our top BUY pick, followed by Sunway Construction.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Adrian Wong
|
|
|
|
Chew Hann Wong
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MACRO RESEARCH
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
COMEX Gold - Bull Run in Sight
by Nik
Ihsan Raja Abdullah
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FBMKLCI rose for a second day, climbing 5.48pts to
1,770.61 yesterday, in line with regional gains. Gainers were led by
MISC, CIMB and Genting. Market breadth, however, remained negative
with losers outpacing advancers by 446 to 384. A total of 1.80b shares
worth MYR1.75b changed hands. With the Dow pushing past 22,000 for
the first time in history, we expect domestic sentiment to improve
with FBMKLCI likely to trade between 1,765 and 1,780 in the
near-term.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nik Ihsan Raja
Abdullah
|
|
|
|
Tee Sze Chiah
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEWS
|
|
|
Outside Malaysia:
U.S: Fed officials point to balance-sheet announcement in
September. Two regional Federal Reserve presidents signaled that policy
makers may announce the timing of the balance-sheet unwind when they meet
next month, as the U.S. economy shows itself strong enough to withstand a
return to more normal monetary policy. The September Federal Open Market
Committee meeting “would be an appropriate time to do this,” San
Francisco Fed chief John Williams told reporters of balance-sheet
normalization. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren signaled he, too,
might support a balance-sheet announcement at the Sept. 19-20 gathering.
(Source: Bloomberg)
China: Bonds in demand as foreign holdings jump most in 10
months. Overseas investors boosted their holdings of Chinese sovereign
bonds in July by the most since September as a link with Hong Kong’s
offshore market made purchases easier. Foreign institutions bought CNY
37.8b (USD 5.6b) of the debt -- an increase of 8.4% from June -- to a
record CNY 486.8b, China Central Depository & Clearing Co. data
showed. The holdings have risen for the fifth month in a row now.
(Source: Bloomberg)
India: Cuts interest rates to the lowest since 2010 to
boost an economy struggling to recover from Prime Minister Narendra
Modi’s cash clampdown. The benchmark repurchase rate was cut to 6% from
6.25%, the Reserve Bank of India said. Five of the six-member monetary
policy committee voted for a cut with this seen as Governor Urjit Patel’s
last chance through 2018 to spur growth before the U.S. Federal Reserve
reduces its balance sheet, forcing emerging markets to tighten. (Source:
Bloomberg)
S. Korea: President Moon Jae-in’s government plans to
raise taxes on big corporations and high-earning individuals as part of
efforts to address inequality. Moon’s administration will propose
increasing the nominal tax rate on companies whose taxable income exceeds
KRW200b (USD178m) to 25% from 22%, the Finance Ministry said in a
statement. The income tax rate for individuals would rise to 40% from 38%
for those earning more than KRW300m, and to 42% from 40% for those
earning more than KRW500m. The package of tax revisions would raise a net
KRW5.5t of additional annual revenue, the ministry said. (Source:
Bloomberg)
Crude Oil: Hold gains as U.S. crude stockpiles extend
decline. Crude inventories slid by 1.5 million barrels last week,
according to the Energy Information Administration, dropping by about
half the amount analysts had forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Motor fuel
supplies fell for a seventh week while oil output expanded to the highest
level since July 2015. Oil climbed amid optimism output curbs by members
of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are
rebalancing the market. While U.S. stockpiles have dropped during a period
of strong seasonal demand, supplies remain about 95 million barrels above
the five-year average. Brent for October settlement was USD 52.36/bbl.
(Source: Bloomberg)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other News:
Oil & Gas: Petronas secures another block in Mexico.
Petronas subsidiary PC Carigali Mexico Operations, SA de CV, has been
awarded shallow water Block 6 in the Gulf of Mexico’s Salina Basin. Block
6 covers about 559 sq km in water depths of between 30 and 80 metres and
will be operated by PC Carigali Mexico in a 50:50 partnership with
Ecopetrol, the national oil company of Colombia. Petronas was awarded
deep water Block 4 and Block 5 in 2016 in a joint venture partnership
following Mexico’s first ever auction of its deep water exploration
areas. (Source: The Sun Daily)
Tenaga Nasional: To raise MYR2b via sukuk. The issuance by
TNB, in which state investor Khazanah is the biggest shareholder,
comprises a MYR500m 15-year tranche and a MYR1.5b 20-year tranche, with periodic
distribution rates of 4.95% and 5.18% respectively. The sukuk programme,
set up in July, is based on an agency-based contract known as wakala and
is rated “AAA” by credit agency RAM ratings. AmInvestment Bank and
Maybank Investment Bank will act as joint bookrunners for the sale.
(Source: The Star)
Glomac: Proposes 1-for-10 bonus issue. Glomac proposes to
undertake a bonus issue of up to 74.82m bonus shares on the basis of one
bonus share for every 10 existing shares held in the company. Its board
expected the proposed bonus issue to be completed by the fourth quarter
of calendar year 2017. The entitlement date will be announced later. The
proposed exercise is aimed at rewarding the existing shareholders for
their loyalty and continuing support, and to improve the liquidity and
marketability of Glomac shares on the bourse. (Source: The Star)
CCM: To distribute 73.37% stake in CCM Duopharma to
shareholders. CCM would distribute some 204.67m CCM Duopharma shares to
its shareholders. The chunk of the shares are worth MYR431.8m based on
yesterday’s closing price of MYR2.11. CCM is currently 70.25% owned by
PNB. Upon completion of the share distribution, PNB will be a substantial
shareholder of CCM Duopharma with a 47.17% stake. (Source: The Edge Financial
Daily)
|
|
|
|
|
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.