Not A Clean Bill Of Health

Economic Research	19 September 2016
Singapore
Economic Highlights
Not A Clean Bill Of Health Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) were unchanged on a y-o-y basis in August, rebounding from a 10.6% contraction the month before. Nevertheless, the recovery was from a low base in August 2015, and with the collapse of Hanjin Shipping Co. (68 ships, 7.8% of trans-Pacific freight) bound to cause disruption in the global shipping industry going forward, we feel that the exports are not out of the woods just yet. In addition, following August’s inertia, NODX has declined 5.3% over the first two months of 3Q, compared to a 0.3% advance in 2Q, pointing to a slowdown manufacturing activities. However, in light of a strong jump in re-exports, services sector is likely to help mitigate some of the downside. Overall, we estimate that GDP is likely to have slowed to 1.4% y-o-y in 3Q, from 2.1% in the previous quarter. Economist:  Ng Kee Chou | +603 92802179
To access our recent reports please click on the links below: 01 September  2016: Singapore’s Business Loans Extend Decline In July 29 August  2016: July IPI Slumped On Broad-based Weakness 24 August  2016: Inflation Stays Negative In July 18 August  2016: July NODX Slump Deepened On Broad-based Weaknesses 12 August  2016: Singapore’s 2Q GDP Revised Lower As MTI Cuts 2016 Forecast 01 August  2016: Sharp Dive In Business Loans Point To Economic Weakness Ahead