Another Year Of Subdued Economic Growth In 2017

Economic Research	29 September 2016
ASEAN
Economic Outlook
Another Year Of Subdued Economic Growth In 2017 The ASEAN-5, in our view, will likely have to fall back again on domestic spending to keep their economies going in 2017, as exports will likely remain sluggish. Some countries, however, will have difficulties to spearhead economic growth using domestic demand due to fiscal constraint. Governments in Philippines and Thailand are stepping up their efforts to support growth and we envisage the former’s economic growth to inch higher to 6.8% in 2017, while the latter’s growth to catch up and expand by 3.8% during the year. Indonesia and Malaysia will likely face some constraints in using fiscal policies due to weakening revenue, especially in the case of the latter. However, the aggressive monetary policy easing in Indonesia is expected to overwhelm the moderate increase in fiscal spending, resulting in stronger GDP growth of 5.3% in 2017. Malaysia may not have that luxury and its growth will likely remain subdued at 4.0%, while Singapore’s growth is expected to weaken to 1.4% in 2017 due to sluggish exports. Economist:  Peck Boon Soon  | +603 9280 2163
To access our recent reports please click on the links below: 30 June 2016: Slower Economic Growth In 2H 2016 Amid Rising Global Uncertainties 31 March 2016: Subdued Economic Growth Given Challenging External Environment 18 December 2015: Improving Prospects With Domestic Demand Anchoring The Growth 30 September 2015: Prospects Remain Challenging Though Growth Will Likely Improve In 2016 30 June 2015: Modest Improvement In Growth In 2H 2015 Amid Exchange Rates Volatility   31 March 2015: Stronger Growth Amid Easing Inflation Pressure