* Exports in July 2016 fell to US$ 9.51 bn (down by 26.67% m-o-m). Meanwhile imports in July 2016 also decreased to US$ 8.92 bn (down by 26.28% m-o-m). The falling of exports and imports mainly came from reduced working

Trade Performance: “Still Surplus”

       Exports in July 2016 fell to US$ 9.51 bn (down by 26.67% m-o-m). Meanwhile imports in July 2016 also decreased to US$ 8.92 bn (down by 26.28% m-o-m). The falling of exports and imports mainly came from reduced working days in July due to the Eid Al-Fitr holiday. Furthermore, the monthly decreased in exports due to the fall in the export of oil & gas, machinery/electrical appliance, jewelry, machinery/mechanical appliance, not-knitted apparel, and ores/slag & ash. The fall in the month-on-month imports mainly due to the decrease in the import of oil & gas, machinery/electrical appliance, machinery/mechanical appliance, plastics & the article there of, iron & steel, and organic chemical . On a yearly basis, exports fell by 17.02% y-o-y in July 2016, while imports also decreased by 11.56% y-o-y. The fell in the year-on-year exports indicates demand for Indonesia's exports in July 2016 was lower than in July 2015. The decreased in the year-on-year imports suggests relatively weakening domestic activity in July 2016 than in July 2015.

       We expect Indonesia's exports may increase in August 2016. The increase in Indonesia's exports performance was caused by back to normal activities of loading and unloading goods at the port after the Eid Al-Fitr holiday last month. In addition, the increasing exports were also triggered by the rising of commodity prices such as crude oil, CPO, coal, and metal. Furthermore, the increasing Indonesia’s exports performance is also caused by the improving in the economy of the countries of Indonesia's major trading partners that also impact the increased demand for goods and services from these countries. We expect Indonesia’s exports will increased to US$ 11.65 billion in August 2016 compared with US$ 9.51 billion in previous month.

       Meanwhile, we expect Indonesia's import performance will increase in August 2016. The rise in the performance of Indonesia's imports was also caused by back to normal activities of loading and unloading goods at the port after the Eid Al-Fitr holiday last month. We expect Indonesia’s imports may increase to US$ 11.20 billion in August 2016 compared with US$ 8.92 billion in the previous month. Consequently, Indonesia’s trade balance is expected to surplus US$ 0.45 billion in August 2016, narrowing compare than a surplus US$ 0.60 billion in one month earlier.