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Share
Price:
|
MYR4.45
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR4.30
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Recommendation:
|
Hold
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RSPO suspension
lifted
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RSPO lifted IOI’s certification suspension ahead of our
expectation. It is a positive surprise but largely priced in after
Friday’s share price jump. The lifting will help contain losses as IOI
stands to lose more business if the suspension drags on. We have
restored our FY17-18F core net profit forecasts by +7%/+4% and lifted
our TP to MYR4.30 (+7%) on unchanged 25x FY17 PER, pegged at its 5-year
historical mean. IOI remains a HOLD.
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FYE Jun (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
Revenue
|
12,664.1
|
11,621.0
|
11,910.3
|
11,926.1
|
EBITDA
|
2,376.3
|
847.4
|
1,673.8
|
1,782.2
|
Core net profit
|
1,549.4
|
860.1
|
1,022.8
|
1,097.6
|
Core FDEPS (sen)
|
24.0
|
13.3
|
15.8
|
17.0
|
Core FDEPS growth(%)
|
(6.9)
|
(44.6)
|
18.9
|
7.3
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
20.0
|
9.0
|
7.9
|
8.5
|
Core FD P/E (x)
|
18.5
|
33.4
|
28.1
|
26.2
|
P/BV (x)
|
4.8
|
5.7
|
5.2
|
4.7
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
4.5
|
2.0
|
1.8
|
1.9
|
ROAE (%)
|
15.7
|
15.5
|
19.2
|
18.8
|
ROAA (%)
|
7.9
|
6.0
|
7.5
|
7.9
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
15.8
|
36.9
|
20.0
|
18.6
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
58.6
|
96.1
|
81.9
|
68.3
|
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Share
Price:
|
MYR0.23
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR0.24
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Addressing
short-term challenges
|
|
Perisai’s key agenda is to ride through the cyclical
downturn and its immediate plan is to restructure its MYR359m MTNs due
in Oct 2016, a crucial exercise. It remains committed to cutting costs
and divesting underperforming assets (E3 and MOPU). Executing these
plans would ease its financials. Having said that, these are defensive
moves, which reflect our HOLD call. The 11% cut in our TP to MYR0.24
inputs a 10% discount to its 1x EV/replacement valuations to reflect
short-term risks.
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|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
Revenue
|
122.1
|
214.8
|
191.6
|
182.8
|
EBITDA
|
50.2
|
118.4
|
76.7
|
67.9
|
Core net profit
|
11.8
|
3.2
|
2.5
|
(1.6)
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
1.0
|
0.3
|
0.2
|
(0.1)
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(84.1)
|
(73.2)
|
(21.4)
|
nm
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Core P/E (x)
|
22.4
|
83.5
|
106.2
|
nm
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.2
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
ROAE (%)
|
1.1
|
0.3
|
0.4
|
(0.2)
|
ROAA (%)
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
(0.1)
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
34.2
|
15.3
|
22.1
|
24.4
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
90.9
|
192.4
|
173.4
|
160.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.80
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.70
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Enlarging the
industrial portfolio
|
|
Post the 1H2016 results analyst briefing, we remain
neutral on AXRB’s near-term earnings outlook but positive on its
industrial buildings' long-term and stable prospects. Growth catalysts
are future acquisitions of industrial assets and redevelopment of Axis
PDI Centre. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged DCF-TP of MYR1.70 (WACC:
6.2%, terminal yield: 7%).
|
|
|
|
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|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
Revenue
|
140.0
|
165.7
|
168.5
|
183.6
|
Net property income
|
118.5
|
141.9
|
142.6
|
156.5
|
Distributable income
|
81.3
|
91.5
|
92.3
|
104.4
|
DPU (sen)
|
8.9
|
7.6
|
7.6
|
8.5
|
DPU growth (%)
|
6.8
|
(14.9)
|
(0.1)
|
13.1
|
Price/DPU(x)
|
20.3
|
23.8
|
23.8
|
21.1
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
DPU yield (%)
|
4.9
|
4.2
|
4.2
|
4.7
|
ROAE (%)
|
6.9
|
6.8
|
6.8
|
7.7
|
ROAA (%)
|
4.4
|
4.3
|
4.3
|
4.8
|
Debt/Assets (x)
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
|
|
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|
MACRO RESEARCH
|
|
|
|
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|
|
Economics Research
by
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
External reserves as at end-July 2016 were the same as
at mid-July 2016 i.e. USD97.3b, which is a tad higher than the
USD97.2b as at end-June 2016. The latest count covers 8.1 months of
retained imports and 1.2 times of short-term external debt.
|
|
|
|
|
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
Zamros
Dzulkafli
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
Economics Research
by
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Exports in June 2016 rebounded by +3.4% YoY (May 2016:
-0.8% YoY) while import growth quickened to +8.3% YoY (May 2016:
+3.1% YoY), resulting in wider trade surplus of +MYR5.52b (May 2016:
+MYR3.3b). Faster import growth relative to export growth in 2Q 2016
resulted in narrower trade surplus in 2Q 2016, implying net external
demand was a drag in 2Q 2016. We expect external trade condition to
remain challenging in 2H 2016.
|
|
|
|
|
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
Zamros
Dzulkafli
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
NEWS
|
|
|
Outside Malaysia:
U.S: Payrolls surge as hiring gains broad-based for second
month. Payrolls jumped in July for a second month and wages climbed,
pointing to renewed vigor in the U.S. labor market that will sustain
consumer spending into the second half of the year. Payrolls climbed by
255,000 last month, following a 292,000 gain in June that was a bit
larger than previously estimated, a Labor Department report showed. The
jobless rate held at 4.9% as many of the people streaming into the labor
force found jobs. (Source: Bloomberg)
U.K. July business confidence falls to three-year low, BDO
says. Optimism index in July Business Trends Report fell to 97.9 from
98.9 in June, BDO LLP says e-mailed statement. “While there is a definite
and continued decline in the confidence of U.K. business people, the
latest drops are not yet as dramatic as may have been predicted” after
the EU referendum on June 23. This suggests that the initial impact of
the Brexit vote has been less severe than expected” (Source: Bloomberg)
China: Foreign-currency stockpile stabilized at USD 3.2tr.
China’s foreign-exchange reserves were little changed in July as the
central bank burned less of the hoard to defend its currency and weakness
in the dollar helped to boost valuations. The reserves edged down by USD
4.1b to USD 3.2tr, the People’s Bank of China said in a statement. The
stabilization suggests capital-outflow pressures eased. The yen and the
euro strengthened last month, aiding the dollar valuation of the
stockpile, on haven demand amid Britain’s vote to leave the European
Union. (Source: Bloomberg)
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Other News:
Mah Sing: To invest MYR5b in Bandar Baru Meridin East. The
company will invest MYR5b to build the 531.35ha Bandar Baru Meridin East
in Kong Kong, Pasir Gudang. The five-phased development project which
aims to meet the needs of the people is expected to be fully completed
between 12 to 15 years. According to Johor Menteri Besar Datuk Seri
Mohamed Khaled Nordin, the project which is being implemented in East
Johor, will help improve the people’s lives. (Source: The Edge Financial
Daily)
Protasco: Wins MYR315.8m highway job. The company’s
subsidiary HCM Engineering Sdn Bhd has received letter of acceptance from
Turnpike Synergy Sdn Bhd for the construction of a stretch of the
proposed Sungai Besi-Ulu Kelang Elevated Expressway (SUKE) for MYR315.8m.
The contract is to be undertaken jointly by HCM and Hatimuda Sdn Bhd on a
40:60 basis. Work is expected to be completed in 30 months, by Feb 28,
2019. (Source: The Sun Daily)
MMC Corp: Acquires 49% of Penang Port. The company is
buying a 49% stake in Penang Port Sdn Bhd (Penang Port) for MYR200m in a
related party deal. A conditional share sale and purchase agreement last
Friday was entered with Seaport Terminal (Johore), which is a major
shareholder of MMC for the stake. According to MMC, the acquisition is in
line with the company’s initiative to make further strategic investments
in one of its core business – ports and logistics. The deal will be
financed with internally generated funds and/or bank borrowings. (Source:
The Sun Daily)
AirAsia: Denies (again) it plans to sell leasing arm. The
company has again denied it plans to sell off its majority stake in its
plane-leasing unit, Asia Aviation Capital Ltd. As filed with Bursa, the
company said its board of directors had not been presented with any
proposal or deliberated on the matter. "As part of our corporate
disclosure policy, we will make the necessary disclosures to Bursa
Malaysia as and when there are material developments on this matter in
accordance with the Main Market Listing Requirements," it said. The company
added that it is continuously assessing and evaluating any corporate
proposal that may enhance its shareholders' value such as acquisitions,
asset divestment and corporate restructuring. (Source: The Sun Daily)
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