Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Tiong Nam: Major shareholders bid for WEC. High precision component parts maker, Wong Engineerin






AirAsia X Bhd | 2Q16 in-line
Mohshin Aziz







Sime Darby | Beats estimates
Chee Ting Ong







MSM Malaysia | 2Q16: Rising sugar price hits
Liew Wei Han







SP Setia | Earnings on track
Wei Sum Wong







WCT Holdings | 2Q16: Dragged by taxes
Li Shin Chai







Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia | 2Q16: No surprises
Liew Wei Han







MISC Bhd | Competitiveness remains
Yen Ling Lee







IOI Corporation | Distorted by higher depreciation charges
Chee Ting Ong







Media Chinese International | Temporary dip in adex
Samuel Yin Shao Yang







Kossan Rubber Industries | In need of a differentiation
Yen Ling Lee








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COMPANY RESEARCH





Rating Change





AirAsia X Bhd (AAX MK)
by Mohshin Aziz





Share Price:
MYR0.46
Target Price:
MYR0.40
Recommendation:
Sell




2Q16 in-line

2Q16 core net loss was MYR12.8m (-91% YoY) after adjusting for one-off items, FX-translation and AAX’s share of losses in associates. This was within our expectations with reduced 1H16 core net profit accounting for 54% of our full-year forecast. We keep our earnings forecasts but raise our TP to MYR0.40 (from MYR0.36) as we roll forward our base valuation year to 2017 with an unchanged 8x PER peg. The current share price is above our fair value; hence AAX is now a SELL.



FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue
2,939.1
3,062.6
4,103.7
5,121.0
EBITDAR
303.6
788.1
1,286.9
1,574.7
Core net profit
(394.8)
(234.9)
155.7
205.1
Core EPS (sen)
(16.7)
(6.9)
3.8
4.9
Core EPS growth (%)
nm
nm
nm
31.8
Net DPS (sen)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Core P/E (x)
nm
nm
12.3
9.3
P/BV (x)
1.4
2.5
2.2
1.7
Net dividend yield (%)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
ROAE (%)
(36.6)
(32.9)
20.6
20.7
ROAA (%)
(10.1)
(6.1)
3.4
3.5
EV/EBITDAR (x)
8.8
2.2
2.6
2.6
Net debt/equity (%)
180.8
179.7
155.9
201.7










Results Review





Sime Darby (SIME MK)
by Chee Ting Ong





Share Price:
MYR7.80
Target Price:
MYR7.56
Recommendation:
Hold




Beats estimates

Sime exceeded its FY6/16 KPI net profit target of MYR2b by 20% and beat ours and street’s earnings estimates. FY6/16 was unexpectedly lifted by MYR349m special tax incentives for its Indonesia ops which is unlikely to recur in FY6/17. But operationally, we still expect a better FY6/17. Sime remains a HOLD with an unchanged TP of MYR7.56 on 21x FY17 PER, pegged at its historical 5-year mean. A final DPS of 21sen was proposed (ie 2.7% net div. yield).



FYE Jun (MYR m)
FY15A
FY16A
FY17E
FY18E
Revenue
43,729.0
43,962.8
46,528.4
49,642.8
EBITDA
4,801.4
4,328.2
4,421.3
4,899.5
Core net profit
2,430.0
2,408.8
2,280.3
2,543.5
Core EPS (sen)
39.1
38.1
36.0
40.2
Core EPS growth (%)
(29.2)
(2.7)
(5.3)
11.5
Net DPS (sen)
25.0
27.0
23.4
26.1
Core P/E (x)
19.9
20.5
21.6
19.4
P/BV (x)
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
Net dividend yield (%)
3.2
3.5
3.0
3.4
ROAE (%)
8.2
7.6
6.9
7.5
ROAA (%)
4.3
3.8
3.5
3.8
EV/EBITDA (x)
14.1
14.2
14.3
13.0
Net debt/equity (%)
45.8
38.3
38.5
38.5










Rating Change





MSM Malaysia (MSM MK)
by Liew Wei Han





Share Price:
MYR5.00
Target Price:
MYR4.22
Recommendation:
Sell




2Q16: Rising sugar price hits

2Q16 results were below expectations on higher-than-expected raw sugar costs and operating expenses. Into 2H16, while we understand that MSM has plans to pass on higher costs to industries and domestic groups, we view that the lagged effect of the pass through may continue to pressure its margins. We lower our earnings forecasts by 10-26% for FY16-18. Consequently, our TP is reduced to MYR4.22 (-48sen; 15.3x FY17 PER).



FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue
2,281.5
2,307.3
2,383.1
2,461.1
EBITDA
383.4
384.1
317.6
414.8
Core net profit
257.0
271.1
178.1
194.0
Core EPS (sen)
36.6
38.6
25.3
27.6
Core EPS growth (%)
1.5
5.5
(34.3)
8.9
Net DPS (sen)
24.0
26.0
15.2
16.6
Core P/E (x)
13.7
13.0
19.7
18.1
P/BV (x)
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
Net dividend yield (%)
4.8
5.2
3.0
3.3
ROAE (%)
13.5
13.6
8.6
9.0
ROAA (%)
11.0
10.3
6.0
5.5
EV/EBITDA (x)
9.6
9.9
13.3
11.1
Net debt/equity (%)
10.4
14.9
34.0
49.3










Results Review





SP Setia (SPSB MK)
by Wei Sum Wong





Share Price:
MYR3.25
Target Price:
MYR3.63
Recommendation:
Buy




Earnings on track

SPSB’s 1H16 net profit was in line. Earnings should start to pick up strongly in 4Q16 on the recognition of lumpy contributions from its Melbourne and London projects. In view of the challenging domestic property market, SPSB has lowered its 2016 sales target by 12.5% to MYR3.5b (2.5% below our sales assumption). We maintain our earnings forecasts, MYR3.63 TP and BUY rating on SPSB.



FYE Oct (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue
3,810.1
6,746.3
5,493.6
6,244.1
EBITDA
1,107.6
2,063.3
1,208.6
1,373.7
Core net profit
376.0
918.3
705.5
908.8
Core EPS (sen)
14.9
35.7
26.6
34.3
Core EPS growth (%)
(17.2)
140.1
(25.4)
28.8
Net DPS (sen)
9.7
23.0
15.6
19.0
Core P/E (x)
21.9
9.1
12.2
9.5
P/BV (x)
1.1
0.9
0.7
0.7
Net dividend yield (%)
3.0
7.1
4.8
5.8
ROAE (%)
6.6
13.9
8.7
10.1
ROAA (%)
2.9
6.2
4.0
4.6
EV/EBITDA (x)
10.1
4.9
9.6
8.5
Net debt/equity (%)
32.5
19.5
17.0
18.0










Results Review





WCT Holdings (WCTHG MK)
by Li Shin Chai





Share Price:
MYR1.59
Target Price:
MYR2.30
Recommendation:
Buy




2Q16: Dragged by taxes

WCT’s 2Q16 core net profit continued to show YoY improvement, driven by its high construction orderbook of MYR4.3b and recovery in property development margins. However, it was QoQ weaker and below expectations due to higher-than-expected taxes and lower construction margins. We keep our earnings forecasts pending further clarification with management. Maintain BUY at MYR2.30 TP.



FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue
1,662.2
1,667.9
2,250.2
2,400.5
EBITDA
147.5
145.7
242.0
256.9
Core net profit
112.3
129.3
134.8
146.5
Core EPS (sen)
10.3
11.3
11.2
12.2
Core EPS growth (%)
(44.9)
9.6
(0.4)
8.7
Net DPS (sen)
6.2
4.2
4.2
4.2
Core P/E (x)
15.5
14.1
14.2
13.0
P/BV (x)
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
Net dividend yield (%)
3.9
2.6
2.6
2.6
ROAE (%)
5.1
5.3
5.1
5.3
ROAA (%)
1.9
2.0
1.9
2.0
EV/EBITDA (x)
21.6
27.1
16.3
15.7
Net debt/equity (%)
66.4
78.9
73.9
73.6










Results Review





Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia (CAB MK)
by Liew Wei Han





Share Price:
MYR14.98
Target Price:
MYR14.70
Recommendation:
Hold




2Q16: No surprises

2Q16 results were in-line. Going forward, we expect cost efficiencies and growing SG ops to continue to be the main drivers. Following the share price gain, we now rate CAB as a HOLD. We maintain our earnings forecasts and DCF-TP of MYR14.70 (7.8% WACC, 2.0% LT growth). FY16E dividend yield of 5.1% should provide support to share price.



FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue
1,635.1
1,659.9
1,723.6
1,781.8
EBITDA
293.6
306.0
330.6
336.5
Core net profit
211.6
228.3
237.3
245.6
Core EPS (sen)
69.2
74.7
77.6
80.3
Core EPS growth (%)
15.0
7.9
3.9
3.5
Net DPS (sen)
69.3
72.0
77.0
80.0
Core P/E (x)
21.6
20.1
19.3
18.6
P/BV (x)
14.7
13.6
13.0
12.6
Net dividend yield (%)
4.6
4.8
5.1
5.3
ROAE (%)
72.2
70.5
68.9
68.6
ROAA (%)
33.6
34.5
35.1
34.8
EV/EBITDA (x)
12.2
11.7
13.9
13.7
Net debt/equity (%)
net cash
net cash
net cash
net cash










Company Update





MISC Bhd (MISC MK)
by Yen Ling Lee





Share Price:
MYR7.53
Target Price:
MYR7.60
Recommendation:
Hold




Competitiveness remains

Contribution from the new brownfield FSO project in Gulf of Thailand is insignificant to MISC, lifting our FY18 net profit and SOP by <1%. However, it signals the Group’s optimism and competitiveness in securing more brownfield projects in the region. We maintain our earnings forecasts, HOLD rating and SOP-based TP of MYR7.60. Valuation is also fair with its 2017 PER of 14.8x (historical mean: 14.1x).



FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue
9,296.3
10,908.4
9,758.7
9,688.6
EBITDA
3,024.0
3,913.2
4,277.1
4,583.3
Core net profit
1,942.5
2,782.0
2,204.8
2,268.4
Core EPS (sen)
43.5
62.3
49.4
50.8
Core EPS growth (%)
37.0
43.2
(20.7)
2.9
Net DPS (sen)
10.0
20.0
12.3
12.7
Core P/E (x)
17.3
12.1
15.2
14.8
P/BV (x)
1.2
1.0
0.9
0.9
Net dividend yield (%)
1.3
2.7
1.6
1.7
ROAE (%)
7.4
8.8
6.1
6.0
ROAA (%)
4.7
6.2
4.4
4.2
EV/EBITDA (x)
12.3
11.2
9.4
8.7
Net debt/equity (%)
14.1
2.4
14.4
12.7










Results Review





IOI Corporation (IOI MK)
by Chee Ting Ong





Share Price:
MYR4.43
Target Price:
MYR4.20
Recommendation:
Hold




Distorted by higher depreciation charges

IOI Corp’s (IOI) FY6/16 disappointed largely on unexpected early adoption of new accounting standards which resulted in higher depreciation charges (which is also applicable going forward too). We lower our earnings forecasts to factor this. With no catalyst in sight for now, IOI remains a HOLD with lower TP of MYR4.20 (-2%).



FYE Jun (MYR m)
FY15A
FY16A
FY17E
FY18E
Revenue
11,621.0
11,739.3
11,930.7
12,781.4
EBITDA
641.8
1,494.6
1,928.8
1,961.9
Core net profit
744.2
948.2
1,081.7
1,130.7
Core FDEPS (sen)
11.5
14.7
16.7
17.5
Core FDEPS growth(%)
(52.0)
27.4
14.1
4.5
Net DPS (sen)
9.0
8.0
8.4
8.7
Core FD P/E (x)
38.5
30.2
26.5
25.3
P/BV (x)
5.7
4.0
3.7
3.5
Net dividend yield (%)
2.0
1.8
1.9
2.0
ROAE (%)
13.4
15.5
14.6
14.2
ROAA (%)
5.2
6.1
6.1
6.2
EV/EBITDA (x)
48.7
22.6
17.5
17.0
Net debt/equity (%)
96.1
76.3
63.5
53.4










Results Review





Media Chinese International (MCIL MK)
by Samuel Yin Shao Yang





Share Price:
MYR0.75
Target Price:
MYR0.73
Recommendation:
Hold




Temporary dip in adex

1QFY3/17 results were slightly below expectations. We gather that advertisers took advantage of higher TV viewership during the UEFA Euro Cup to migrate ad spend from print to TV. Positively, losses narrowed in Greater China QoQ while earnings from travel recovered QoQ. Maintain earnings estimates, HOLD call and MYR0.73 TP on 10.5x CY16 PER for now. All eyes will be on how the net proceeds to be received from the disposal of 73%-owned One Media Group will be utilised.



FYE Mar (MYR m)
FY15A
FY16A
FY17E
FY18E
Revenue
1,589.3
1,362.3
1,378.7
1,402.8
EBITDA
268.1
205.2
211.1
223.6
Core net profit
144.4
110.2
118.8
131.5
Core EPS (sen)
8.6
6.5
7.0
7.8
Core EPS growth (%)
(8.3)
(23.7)
7.8
10.6
Net DPS (sen)
3.4
4.3
4.9
5.5
Core P/E (x)
8.7
11.4
10.6
9.6
P/BV (x)
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.4
Net dividend yield (%)
4.6
5.8
6.6
7.3
ROAE (%)
19.4
13.7
13.8
14.5
ROAA (%)
9.4
7.0
7.8
8.8
EV/EBITDA (x)
4.5
5.5
5.1
4.5
Net debt/equity (%)
5.9
net cash
net cash
net cash










TP Revision





Kossan Rubber Industries (KRI MK)
by Yen Ling Lee





Share Price:
MYR6.24
Target Price:
MYR6.00
Recommendation:
Hold




In need of a differentiation

Weaker 2Q16 results came in below ours and market’s expectations on intense ASP competition, higher costs and lower USD/MYR. We expect earnings to improve sequentially in 3Q as the nitrile competition has eased. However, we reduce our FY16-18 EPS forecasts by 7% p.a. which resulted in a lower TP of MYR6.00 (-7%), based on an unchanged 2017 PER of 16x (historical mean). Maintain HOLD.



FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue
1,299.3
1,635.9
1,884.6
2,126.2
EBITDA
247.9
343.2
369.5
417.8
Core net profit
143.8
203.3
213.3
239.1
Core EPS (sen)
22.5
31.8
33.4
37.4
Core EPS growth (%)
5.4
41.4
4.9
12.1
Net DPS (sen)
7.0
12.7
16.7
18.7
Core P/E (x)
27.8
19.6
18.7
16.7
P/BV (x)
5.0
4.1
3.7
3.3
Net dividend yield (%)
1.1
2.0
2.7
3.0
ROAE (%)
19.0
22.7
20.6
20.8
ROAA (%)
12.1
14.8
13.6
13.6
EV/EBITDA (x)
12.0
17.4
10.9
9.8
Net debt/equity (%)
11.2
1.7
net cash
4.2








NEWS


Outside Malaysia:

E.U: Euro-area economy maintained its momentum in August, with growth showing little sign of being curtailed by fallout from the U.K.’s Brexit vote. A composite Purchasing Managers Index for the 19-nation region rose for a second month to 53.3 from 53.2 in July. That’s above the 50 level that divides expansion from contraction and marks the best reading in seven months. The increase was driven by an improvement in services, while manufacturing activity slipped. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.K: Factories reap export benefits of Brexit’s drag on pound. Manufacturers are starting to see the benefits of the pound’s decline, with export orders posting their best performance in two years. An index of foreign demand rose to minus 5 this month, the highest since August 2014, from minus 22 in July, according to a survey published by the Confederation of British Industry in London. It said the result is a “tentative sign that sterling’s depreciation is starting to filter through.” Britain’s vote to leave the European Union pushed the pound to a three-decade low last month, which may provide a lift to foreign sales and support economic growth. (Source: Bloomberg)

China: To slash limits on foreign investment to revive spending. China will further open its economic borders to investors from abroad in a move intended to counter sliding confidence in the outlook for the world’s second-largest economy. The nation will continue opening its education, finance, culture and manufacturing sectors to foreign investors, the vice minister of commerce Wang Shouwen said at a briefing in Beijing. Measures will focus on boosting investment in inland, western regions, Wang said. Foreign capital utilized by the country declined by 1.6% in July 2016. (Source: Bloomberg)

US: Purchases of new U.S. homes unexpectedly jumped in July to the highest level in almost nine years, led by soaring demand in the nation’s south and adding to signs of persistent housing-market strength. Sales increased 12.4% to a 654,000 annualized pace, the fastest since October 2007. Purchases in the South were the strongest since before the start of the last recession. (Source: Bloomberg)

US: The boards of directors at eight of the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks sought last month to increase the rate on direct loans from the Fed to 1.25% from 1.0%, according to details released by the U.S. central bank. The votes mark the first time since policy makers raised the benchmark federal funds rate in December that a majority of the Fed’s regional boards backed a discount-rate increase. The votes can be a signal of whether a bank’s president favors a change in the main policy rate. (Source: Bloomberg)





Other News:

Tiong Nam: Major shareholders bid for WEC. High precision component parts maker, Wong Engineering Corporation Bhd (WEC), has been served an unconditional mandatory offer from TNTT Realty Sdn Bhd and persons acting in concert to acquire all its remaining shares for 65 sen, valuing the company at MYR59.5m. TNTT is a major shareholder of Tiong Nam Logistics Holdings Bhd’s and controlled by the latter’s major shareholder and managing director Ong Yoong Nyock. In a stock exchange announcement yesterday, WEC said TNTT yesterday acquired 39.42 million shares, or 43.07% stake in the latter for MYR25.63m cash or 65 sen per share. TNTT plans to maintain WEC’s listing status on the Main Market of Bursa Securities. (Source: The Star)

IJM Plantations: Eyes better FY17 on possible ‘windfall gains’. The company, which posted its worst-ever profit for the financial year ended March 31 2016 since FY03, is expecting a better FY17, supported by a mild recovery in palm oil prices and higher fresh fruit bunch (FFB) which may bring some “windfall gains”. The El Nino had impacted the group’s FFB in Malaysia, falling 18% to 481000 tonnes in FY16 from 589000 tonnes in FY15. FFB in Indonesia however improved 35% to 367000 tonnes from 273000 tonnes. Major countries like China and India will be replenishing stocks for their upcoming cultural festivities which should continue to lend support to fundamental oil prices. Tek Choon Yee, the company’s CEO and managing director, said that if the firming palm oil prices continues, it will be more positive to the group, adding that there would be potential for “windfall gains” if palm oil prices were to between MYR2600 and MYR2800. (source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Hartalega: Pricing pressures easing. The company expects its profitability to improve in the future as it believes competitive pricing pressures in the industry have retreated from its peak, as glove makers slow their pace of expansion, in accordance to market demand. Its confidence also stemmed from a recent cost management initiative it has undertaken. According to its managing director, Kuan Mun Leong for the past four months they have looked into the cost structure and trimmed down costs in four key area, namely raw materials, labour, energy and chemicals. In addition to that, it has reviewed the production line design to reduce wastage and improve energy efficiency. Kuan was expecting the company’s MYR2.2b Next Generation Integrated Glove Manufacturing Complex (NGC) to continue being its key driver to reinforce its pole position in the nitrile gloves segment. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)


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