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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR10.26
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR12.80
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Very strong NBV
growth
|
|
While the operating environment remains challenging for
the general insurance division, Allianz Life has stepped up to support
the group’s underlying fundamentals with very strong new business value
(NBV) growth of 67% YoY. We maintain our earnings forecasts and BUY
call on Allianz with an unchanged SOP-derived TP of MYR12.80.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Net earned premiums
|
3,254.3
|
3,504.3
|
3,616.5
|
3,695.3
|
|
Core profit (MYR m)
|
295.9
|
308.9
|
320.2
|
337.6
|
|
BVPS (MYR)
|
6.6
|
7.6
|
8.5
|
9.6
|
|
P/B (x)
|
1.6
|
1.4
|
1.2
|
1.1
|
|
EVPS (MYR)
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
|
PEV (x)
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
|
VNB (MYR)
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
|
VNB multiple (x)
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
|
ROE (%)
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
|
ROA (%)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR3.25
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR3.63
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2H16 likely to
be stronger
|
|
SPSB’s upcoming 2Q16 results are likely to come within
expectations. Earnings should start to pick up strongly in 4Q16 on the
recognition of lumpy contributions from its Melbourne and London
projects. Elsewhere, the issuance of up to 1,069.7m new perpetual
RCPS-I is expected to be completed by end Nov 2016. In view of the
steady dividend rate of 6.49% (vs M-REITs’ 5.1%), we advocate investors
to subscribe for the RCPS-i. We maintain our earnings forecasts,
MYR3.63 TP and BUY rating on SPSB.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Oct (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
3,810.1
|
6,746.3
|
5,493.6
|
6,244.1
|
|
EBITDA
|
1,107.6
|
2,063.3
|
1,208.6
|
1,373.7
|
|
Core net profit
|
376.0
|
918.3
|
705.5
|
908.8
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
14.9
|
35.7
|
26.6
|
34.3
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(17.2)
|
140.1
|
(25.4)
|
28.8
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
9.7
|
23.0
|
15.6
|
19.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
21.9
|
9.1
|
12.2
|
9.5
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.1
|
0.9
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.0
|
7.1
|
4.8
|
5.8
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
6.6
|
13.9
|
8.7
|
10.1
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
2.9
|
6.2
|
4.0
|
4.6
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
10.1
|
4.9
|
9.6
|
8.5
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
32.5
|
19.5
|
17.0
|
18.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.27
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.90
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fundamentals
intact; U/G to BUY
|
|
We upgrade BFood to BUY (from HOLD) following the recent
plunge in share price which provides a huge upside to our MYR1.90 TP
(unchanged) with total return of 52% (including FY17 net yield of
2.5%). Given that BFood has remained operationally and fundamentally
stable, we think its current valuation of CY17 FD PER of 15x is
attractive, on the back of a decent 11% 3-year net profit CAGR.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Apr (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
376.8
|
554.1
|
609.7
|
679.8
|
|
EBITDA
|
213.7
|
79.5
|
70.4
|
83.8
|
|
Core net profit
|
25.7
|
22.9
|
26.5
|
34.8
|
|
Core FDEPS (sen)
|
6.8
|
6.0
|
7.0
|
9.2
|
|
Core FDEPS growth(%)
|
(2.4)
|
(11.4)
|
15.7
|
31.5
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
5.8
|
4.3
|
3.1
|
4.1
|
|
Core FD P/E (x)
|
18.7
|
21.1
|
18.3
|
13.9
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
1.1
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
4.5
|
3.3
|
2.5
|
3.3
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
9.2
|
5.8
|
6.5
|
8.3
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
5.7
|
3.1
|
3.5
|
4.6
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
5.1
|
11.2
|
9.5
|
8.0
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
39.1
|
48.5
|
48.3
|
47.4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.93
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.85
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Signs of
recovery?
|
|
While still in the red, TCM’s 2Q16 core net losses
narrowed by 58% QoQ, helped by improved sales mix and slightly lower
imported component costs. We make no changes to our earnings estimates
for now as 1H16 core net losses are in line (52% of our FY16 forecast).
We expect a better 2H16 as the industry enters a seasonally stronger
half in terms of sales. Also, margins may recover with a stronger MYR.
With limited downside to our unchanged MYR1.85 TP (0.45x FY16 NTA), we
upgrade TCM to HOLD.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
4,760.6
|
5,716.7
|
5,322.3
|
5,183.2
|
|
EBITDA
|
330.7
|
302.4
|
25.4
|
121.8
|
|
Core net profit
|
68.6
|
51.8
|
(91.3)
|
(44.5)
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
10.5
|
7.9
|
(14.0)
|
(6.8)
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(76.6)
|
(24.4)
|
nm
|
nm
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
6.0
|
5.0
|
3.0
|
3.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
18.4
|
24.3
|
nm
|
nm
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.5
|
0.5
|
0.5
|
0.5
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.1
|
2.6
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
2.5
|
1.9
|
(3.3)
|
(1.7)
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
1.4
|
1.0
|
(1.8)
|
(0.9)
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
9.7
|
9.2
|
86.0
|
15.7
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
37.0
|
37.7
|
33.3
|
23.6
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR0.23
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR0.24
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Secures a
6-month extension for FPSO Kamelia
|
|
While the charter extension is positive to optimising
Perisai’s FPSO utilisation, it has an adverse impact to 2016-18
earnings, for it has a crude oil price element, absent in the earlier
contract. A successful restructuring exercise of Perisai’s MTNs due in
Oct 2016 is crucial. Cost cutting and asset divestment exercises are
short-term agendas to ease its financials. Our unchanged TP of MYR0.24
imputes a 10% discount to its 1x EV/replacement valuation to reflect
short-term risks.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
122.1
|
214.8
|
191.6
|
182.8
|
|
EBITDA
|
50.2
|
118.4
|
76.7
|
67.9
|
|
Core net profit
|
11.8
|
3.2
|
0.6
|
(16.2)
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
1.0
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
(1.4)
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(84.1)
|
(73.2)
|
(80.2)
|
nm
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
22.4
|
83.5
|
421.3
|
nm
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.2
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
1.1
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
(2.2)
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
(0.7)
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
34.2
|
15.3
|
22.1
|
24.4
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
90.9
|
192.4
|
173.9
|
164.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.81
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.72
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unveil plans for
PDI Centre
|
|
We are mildly positive on AXRB’s announced plans for the
redevelopment of Axis PDI Centre which is long-term EPU and DPU
accretive. That said, as in any asset redevelopment/construction, there
is a construction risk element. We revise up our beta assumption
leading to a lower MYR1.72 DDM-TP (-8sen). We also trim FY17/18
earnings by -4%/-7% as Axis PDI Centre would only resume contribution
later. Maintain HOLD.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
140.0
|
165.7
|
168.5
|
179.0
|
|
Net property income
|
118.5
|
141.9
|
142.6
|
152.4
|
|
Distributable income
|
81.3
|
91.5
|
92.3
|
99.8
|
|
DPU (sen)
|
8.9
|
7.6
|
7.6
|
8.2
|
|
DPU growth (%)
|
6.8
|
(14.9)
|
(0.1)
|
8.1
|
|
Price/DPU(x)
|
20.4
|
23.9
|
24.0
|
22.2
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
|
DPU yield (%)
|
4.9
|
4.2
|
4.2
|
4.5
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
6.9
|
6.8
|
6.8
|
7.4
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
4.4
|
4.3
|
4.3
|
4.6
|
|
Debt/Assets (x)
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR3.89
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR3.90
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Awaiting next
impetus
|
|
Solid order backlog should see 1H16’s revenue growth
momentum sustained in 2H16; 3-month average book-to-bill ratio remains
healthy (>1x) at 1.11x as at end-Jul 2016. We make no changes to our
topline projection but impute higher operating expense and tax rate to
reflect 1H16 results. As a result, our FY16-18 earnings forecasts are
lowered by 5%-8%. Correspondingly, our TP is now MYR3.90 (-5%), pegged
at unchanged 14x CY17 EPS; maintain HOLD.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
169.9
|
160.3
|
225.8
|
252.3
|
|
EBITDA
|
53.5
|
59.1
|
70.1
|
81.2
|
|
Core net profit
|
50.3
|
51.3
|
62.4
|
65.6
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
21.4
|
21.8
|
26.5
|
27.9
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
134.4
|
1.9
|
21.7
|
5.1
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
6.0
|
5.0
|
6.6
|
7.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
18.2
|
17.9
|
14.7
|
14.0
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
5.2
|
4.4
|
3.6
|
3.0
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
1.5
|
1.3
|
1.7
|
1.8
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
32.9
|
26.7
|
26.9
|
23.4
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
25.5
|
21.2
|
20.2
|
15.9
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
8.9
|
12.7
|
12.9
|
11.3
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
0.8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SECTOR RESEARCH
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TIV took a dive in July, falling 26% MoM, due to a
shorter working month and frontloaded sales before the Hari Raya
festivity. This brings 7M16 TIV to 318k units (-17% YoY),
representing 53% of our 2016 TIV forecast of 590k units (-11% YoY).
TIV should recover in August, helped by Perodua Bezza which has seen
more than 6k units delivered since its launch. We remain positive on
those with meaningful exposure to Perodua. Maintain BUY on Pecca, MBM
and BAuto; SELL on UMWH; TCM is now a HOLD.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEWS
|
|
|
Outside Malaysia:
U.S: Fed’s Fischer says. central bank close to its
targets. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said the U.S.
economy is close to the central bank’s goals and he expects growth to
pick up in the future. “We are close to our targets,” Fischer said
remarks prepared for a speech before the Aspen Institute in Aspen,
Colorado. “Looking ahead, I expect GDP growth to pick up in coming
quarters, as investment recovers from a surprisingly weak patch and the
drag from past dollar appreciation diminishes,” he added, without giving
his views on the rate outlook. He also called for more effective fiscal
and regulatory policies to help boost productivity. (Source: Bloomberg)
Canada: Eyes relaxing rules to attract investment from
China, including steps to open up to state-owned enterprises in China, in
a bid to attract more capital and spur economic growth, Finance Minister
Bill Morneau said. Morneau spoke to reporters in Sudbury, Ontario, at a
cabinet meeting ahead of the Group of 20 leaders’ summit in China in
early September. He and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will attend along
with other senior Canadian officials. Asked about reviewing restrictions
on the ability of state- owned enterprises such as those in China to
acquire Canadian oil assets, Morneau didn’t rule out such changes. He
said his government expects to discuss with its Chinese counterparts how
to spur more investment in Canada. (Source: Bloomberg)
Crude Oil: Declines after Iraq agrees to boost exports
amid global glut. Oil declined after Iraq, OPEC’s second- biggest
producer, said it will boost oil exports in the next few days amid a glut
of supply. Iraq will increase crude exports by about 5% in the next few
days after an agreement to resume shipments from three oil fields in
Kirkuk. U.S. oil drillers added 10 rigs last week, extending the biggest
and longest increases since April 2014, Baker Hughes Inc. data show.
Brent for October settlement fell as much as 48 cents to USD 50.40/bbl on
the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. (Source: Bloomberg)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other News:
Energy: Tembat, Puah dams to add power to Kenyir stations.
According to Tenaga Nasional (TNB), the newly-constructed MYR2.3b Tembat
and Puah dams, once fully operational in October, will add an additional
265MW of electricity to the generation capacity of the Kenyir
hydroelectric power stations. The two new cascading hydroelectric dams
are the third of its kind in the country after those in Cameron Highlands
and Sungai Perak. This would increase the capacity of the stations to
665MW. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)
Vivocom International: Bags MYR100m contract. The
company’s subsidiary, Vivocom Enterprise Sdn Bhd (VESB) has been awarded
a RM100 million contract from Green Ventures Development Sdn Bhd for the
appointment of VESB as turnkey contractor for two 18-storey apartment
blocks at Mukim Hulu Kinta, Perak. The project is to be completed within
24 months from site possession. (Source: The Sun Daily)
EUPE Corp: Expects better contribution with Novum’s
contribution. The Kedah-based property player expects its financial year
ending Feb 28, 2017 to chart better numbers in both revenue and profit.
The group’s maiden Kuala Lumpur project, Novum Serviced Residences in
Bangsar South is expected to have stronger sales from its developments
this year. The project has a GDV of MYR562m which will house 729
condominium units. Since launched in March this year, the take-up rate is
now above 70%. Inclusive of the Novum project, the GDV for the group’s
ongoing project is at MYR823m. Apart from that, the company is confident
that the recent OPR cut by Bank Negara will boost the slowing property
sector. As such, EUPE is gearing for better times ahead. (Source: The
Edge Financial Daily)
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