Tuesday, October 20, 2015

CIMB Daily Fixed Income Commentary - 20 Oct 2015


Market Roundup
  • US Treasuries pared losses after going through choppy trading on Monday, as players awaited more guidance at this juncture. The 10T yield appears to be well supported at 2.00% in the near term, while we see a break above 2.10% will bring next resistance at 2.15% and 2.22%.
  • Ringgit denominated government bonds closed mixed, with gains concentrated on the short term MGS and GII papers. Meantime, daily volume was moderate, amounting RM2.6 billion.
  • Trading activities in Thai government bond market remained thin, with daily volume dipped further to Bt10.2 billion, from Bt12.0 billion posted last Friday. We noted selling pressure weighed on Thai govvies, driven by expectation of new supplies (LB446A and LB206A auctions) alongside the weaker THB. We see short term resistance for the 10-year benchmark at 2.65%.
  • Quiet day for Indonesia government bond market on Monday. The 10-year benchmark (FR70) was the most actively traded bond, while very few activities seen in other series. Today MoF will be holding Syariah bond auction with IDR 2 trillion indicative target volume. MoF also announced 3-year retail bond (ORI12) total issuance was IDR 27.4 trillion with 9% coupon. We think market will continue to range traded due to little catalyst seen this week. Aside, volume improved to IDR 8.5 trillion.
  • Asian dollar credit market continued to be held firm early this week, while sentiment appeared to be stable after the release of China 3Q2015 GDP, which fell below 7.0% for the first time to 6.9% since 1Q2009, but higher than consensus estimate of 6.8%.

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