Wednesday, October 21, 2015

[Maybank Kim Eng] Today's Research - Malaysia

21 Oct 2015, Wednesday


g Macro Research
- Malaysia: Technicals - Index reverses down from 1,727.41
| Lee Cheng Hooi
- Malaysia: Other News -
| Malaysia Research Team



MY: Top Glove (TOPG MK)
Share Price: MYR9.10
Target Price: MYR10.80
Recommendation: Buy


Yen Ling Lee
(603) 2297 8691
lee.yl@maybank-ib.com


Company Update: Driving internal efficiencies

FYE Aug (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue
2,275.4
2,510.5
2,819.7
3,084.9
EBITDA
298.8
452.8
552.9
590.8
Core net profit
180.5
280.1
345.5
368.0
Core EPS (sen)
29.1
45.2
55.7
59.3
Core EPS growth (%)
(8.2)
55.2
23.3
6.5
Net DPS (sen)
16.0
20.0
27.9
29.7
Core P/E (x)
31.3
20.1
16.3
15.3
P/BV (x)
4.1
3.5
3.2
2.9
Net dividend yield (%)
1.8
2.2
3.1
3.3
ROAE (%)
13.3
18.7
20.4
19.6
ROAA (%)
9.8
12.1
12.3
12.2
EV/EBITDA (x)
9.4
10.2
9.8
9.0
Net debt/equity (%)
net cash
net cash
net cash
net cash
§  Raising productivity for sustainably high margins.
§  Strong earnings to stay in the near-term on weak MYR.
§  Maintain BUY and TP of MYR10.80 (19x 2016 PER).

MY: Hong Leong Bank (HLBK MK)
Share Price: MYR14.24
Target Price: MYR15.20
Recommendation: Buy


Desmond Ch'ng
(603) 2297 8680
desmond.chng@maybank-ib.com

Company Update: Cost efficiencies via an MSS

FYE Jun (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Operating income
4,039.1
4,066.9
4,333.2
4,527.8
Pre-provision profit
2,246.8
2,253.1
2,466.6
2,600.2
Core net profit
2,102.3
2,233.2
2,291.0
2,370.8
Core EPS (MYR)
1.19
1.26
1.27
1.32
Core EPS growth (%)
12.8
5.9
0.8
3.5
Net DPS (MYR)
0.41
0.41
0.42
0.43
Core P/E (x)
11.9
11.3
11.2
10.8
P/BV (x)
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.4
Net dividend yield (%)
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.1
Book value (MYR)
7.73
8.93
9.48
10.06
ROAE (%)
15.3
14.3
13.2
12.9
ROAA (%)
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
§  MSS follows the footsteps of other banks, in efforts to drive cost efficiencies in a challenging operating environment.
§  A 10% acceptance rate could lower our projected FY17 CIR to 40.8% from 42.6% and raise FY17 net profit by 2.7%.
§  Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of MYR15.20, pegged to 1.5x proforma CY16 post-rights BVPS.

MY: Malaysia Automotive
Recommendation: Neutral

Ivan Yap
(603) 2297 8612
ivan.yap@maybank-ib.com

Sector Note: Sustained weakness in Sep TIV


§  September 2015 TIV weakened further by 4% MoM to 51k units, amid weak consumer sentiment and a weaker MYR.
§  Trim our 2015 TIV forecast by 0.8% to 655k units (-2% YoY) on weaker demand. TIV weakness could sustain into 2016.
§  Maintain NEUTRAL; remain cautious on auto earnings from the weaker MYR. BUYs are MBM and BAuto.

MY: Malaysia Media
Recommendation: Neutral

Samuel Yin Shao Yang
(603) 2297 8916
samuel.y@maybank-ib.com
Jade Tam
(603) 2297 8687
jade.tam@maybank-ib.com
Sector Note: Sep 2015 adex: Stability in sight? | NEUTRAL


§  Sep total gross adex was down 14% YoY but up 5% MoM, suggesting a slight recovery in sentiment on a MoM basis.
§  Public sector ad spend continues to fall YoY and MoM but interestingly, private sector ad spend was up 6% MoM.
§  Maintain NEUTRAL on the sector for now with BUYs on MPR and MCIL on cheap valuations and high dividend yields.

MY: Technicals

Lee Cheng Hooi
(603) 2297 8694
chenghooi.lee@maybank-ib.com

Technical Research: Index reverses down from 1,727.41


§  SUCCESS - On a very strong upward Wave 3 and 5 move.
§  FBMKLCI – Index reverses down from 1,727.41.
§  Supports of 1,661 and 1,691 will be weaker.
§  Resistances of 1,705 and 1,727 will cap any rebound.

MY: Other News

Malaysia Research Team

Economics Research:


Outside Malaysia
   U.S: Housing starts rise in September as construction underpins economy
   U.S: Payrolls declined in 27 states in September, led by Missouri
   Russia: Buys most gold in a year as it adds 34 tons to reserves
   China: Financial sector shrugged off a slumping stock market to underpin growth
Malaysia
   Construction: UEM-Samsung close to bagging KL118 job
   IOI Properties: Acquires 2 firms
   Bina Puri Holdings: Wins job in PIPC worth MYR234m
   Yinson: Gets three-year extension for FPSO Adoon
  

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