Wednesday, October 28, 2015

[Maybank Kim Eng] Today's Research - Malaysia

28 Oct 2015, Wednesday


g Macro Research
- Malaysia: Technicals - A weaker index below 1,700
| Lee Cheng Hooi
- Malaysia: Other News -
| Malaysia Research Team



MY: Genting Bhd (GENT MK)
Share Price: MYR7.46
Target Price: MYR9.20
Recommendation: Buy


Samuel Yin Shao Yang
(603) 2297 8916
samuel.y@maybank-ib.com


Company Update: Still has plenty of upside potential

FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
Revenue
17,111.7
18,216.5
18,580.6
20,049.4
EBITDA
6,116.4
6,627.5
6,390.8
7,001.9
Core net profit
1,681.4
1,777.4
1,749.7
1,983.7
Core FDEPS (sen)
45.5
46.2
42.5
47.8
Core FDEPS growth(%)
(27.2)
1.5
(7.9)
12.3
Net DPS (sen)
37.5
4.0
3.7
4.1
Core FD P/E (x)
16.4
16.2
17.5
15.6
P/BV (x)
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
Net dividend yield (%)
5.0
0.5
0.5
0.6
ROAE (%)
7.2
6.8
6.4
6.8
ROAA (%)
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.6
EV/EBITDA (x)
8.5
7.3
6.9
6.6
Net debt/equity (%)
net cash
net cash
net cash
net cash
§  GENT is trading at a 35% discount to SOP/sh, which is more than –1SD to its long-term mean of 21% discount to SOP/sh.
§  Steep discount is not justified; we forecast strong 3-yr core earnings CAGR of 17% with a bumper growth in FY17 at 42%!
§  LT earnings growth also driven by the ‘under-researched’ Banten IPP. Maintain BUY with a revised TP of MYR9.20 (-2%).

MY: RHB Capital (RHBC MK)
Share Price: MYR6.26
Target Price: MYR6.80
Recommendation: Hold


Desmond Ch'ng
(603) 2297 8680
desmond.chng@maybank-ib.com

Company Update: 12% acceptance rate for CTS

FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
Operating income
5,950.8
6,234.9
6,181.7
6,368.9
Pre-provision profit
2,898.6
2,823.7
2,677.2
2,726.7
Core net profit
1,831.2
1,925.6
1,766.2
1,857.0
Core EPS (MYR)
0.73
0.75
0.68
0.71
Core EPS growth (%)
(7.7)
3.2
(9.7)
4.1
Net DPS (MYR)
0.16
0.06
0.06
0.06
Core P/E (x)
8.6
8.3
9.2
8.8
P/BV (x)
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
Net dividend yield (%)
2.6
1.0
1.0
1.0
Book value (MYR)
6.57
7.31
8.16
8.81
ROAE (%)
11.5
10.8
8.8
8.4
ROAA (%)
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
§  CTS completes with cost of MYR309m and annual savings of MYR193m – 31% higher than CIMB on a per employee basis.
§  Would lower our FY15 net profit forecast by 12% but raise our FY16 earnings by 8%.
§  Maintain HOLD with an unchanged TP of MYR6.80 (P/BV target of 1x on post-rights BVPS).

MY: WCT Holdings (WCTHG MK)
Share Price: MYR1.36
Target Price: MYR2.20
Recommendation: Buy


Li Shin Chai
(603) 2297 8684
lishin.c@maybank-ib.com

Company Update: RAPID flow of contracts

FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
Revenue
1,655.0
1,662.2
1,800.1
1,992.0
EBITDA
282.4
147.5
183.5
229.9
Core net profit
200.5
97.0
90.7
137.9
Core EPS (sen)
18.7
8.9
8.3
12.6
Core EPS growth (%)
11.1
(52.4)
(6.6)
51.9
Net DPS (sen)
6.8
6.2
6.2
6.2
Core P/E (x)
7.3
15.3
16.4
10.8
P/BV (x)
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
Net dividend yield (%)
5.0
4.6
4.6
4.6
ROAE (%)
10.0
4.4
4.1
6.0
ROAA (%)
3.7
1.7
1.5
2.2
EV/EBITDA (x)
10.7
21.6
16.4
12.9
Net debt/equity (%)
40.1
66.4
64.9
61.4
§  New MYR267m civil construction contract in RAPID from PETRONAS lifts external orderbook by 8% to MYR3.69b.
§  WCT’s job wins have exceeded our MYR2b target for 2015; earnings forecasts unchanged pending further details.
§  Expect further job replenishment from RAPID, TRX, Kwasa Land and WCE. Reiterate BUY at MYR2.20 TP (unchanged).

MY: IGB REIT (IGBREIT MK)
Share Price: MYR1.31
Target Price: MYR1.50
Recommendation: Buy


Kevin Wong
(603) 2082 6824
kevin.wong@maybank-ib.com
Wei Sum Wong
(603) 2297 8679
weisum@maybank-ib.com
Results Review: Earnings on track

FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
Revenue
430.7
461.8
486.5
505.1
Net property income
285.7
312.6
335.7
348.1
Distributable income
241.1
268.8
294.1
307.3
DPU (sen)
6.3
7.0
7.7
7.9
DPU growth (%)
284.0
10.7
9.1
3.8
Price/DPU(x)
20.7
18.7
17.1
16.5
P/BV (x)
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
DPU yield (%)
4.8
5.4
5.8
6.1
ROAE (%)
5.9
6.4
6.9
7.2
ROAA (%)
4.2
4.6
4.9
5.1
Debt/Assets (x)
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
§  3Q15 net profit of MYR65m (+8.3% YoY) within expectations.
§  Near-term earnings are supported by sustained rental rates and stable occupancy rates in MVM and TGM.
§  Maintain BUY with an unchanged DCF-based TP of MYR1.50. Total return is 21%, inclusive of 6.1% FY16 net yield.

MY: Sunway REIT (SREIT MK)
Share Price: MYR1.53
Target Price: MYR1.50
Recommendation: Hold


Kevin Wong
(603) 2082 6824
kevin.wong@maybank-ib.com
Wei Sum Wong
(603) 2297 8679
weisum@maybank-ib.com
Results Preview: Dragged by Putra Mall and offices

FYE Jun (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue
427.8
453.5
509.8
541.5
Net property income
321.0
340.8
394.1
422.4
Distributable income
231.9
242.0
262.3
285.0
DPU (sen)
7.5
7.6
7.8
8.5
DPU growth (%)
0.7
1.3
2.3
8.6
Price/DPU(x)
20.3
20.1
19.6
18.1
P/BV (x)
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.1
DPU yield (%)
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.5
ROAE (%)
6.4
6.3
6.4
6.8
ROAA (%)
4.3
4.0
4.0
4.3
Debt/Assets (x)
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
§  Upcoming 1QFY16 earnings could fall short, due to slower Putra Mall and office assets’ earnings.
§  Lowering our FY16/17/18 net profit forecasts by 11%/9%/7%.
§  Maintain HOLD with a lower MYR1.50 DCF-TP (-5sen).

MY: Globetronics Technology (GTB MK)
Share Price: MYR6.11
Target Price: MYR7.35
Recommendation: Buy


Ivan Yap
(603) 2297 8612
ivan.yap@maybank-ib.com

Results Review: Let the good times roll

FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
Revenue
321.4
355.0
408.4
555.4
EBITDA
98.1
108.6
119.5
169.3
Core net profit
52.6
64.4
76.4
121.3
Core EPS (sen)
19.0
22.9
27.2
43.2
Core EPS growth (%)
27.3
20.7
18.6
58.8
Net DPS (sen)
18.0
23.0
24.5
38.9
Core P/E (x)
32.1
26.6
22.4
14.1
P/BV (x)
6.1
6.0
5.9
5.6
Net dividend yield (%)
2.9
3.8
4.0
6.4
ROAE (%)
19.6
23.0
26.5
40.7
ROAA (%)
15.8
18.5
21.0
31.8
EV/EBITDA (x)
7.5
9.7
13.1
9.4
Net debt/equity (%)
net cash
net cash
net cash
net cash
§  9M15 earnings within our and consensus estimates.
§  Growth to accelerate in 4Q15 and into 2016; maiden contribution from 3D-imaging sensor from 4Q15.
§  Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of MYR7.35 (17x 2016 PER). Ex-cash FY16 PER of 12.7x; 6.4% FY16 yield (90% DPR).

MY: Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK)
Share Price: MYR5.37
Target Price: MYR5.45
Recommendation: Hold


Mohshin Aziz
(603) 2297 8692
mohshin.aziz@maybank-ib.com

Results Review: Cost fluctuation

FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
Revenue
4,134.0
3,343.7
3,918.1
4,298.3
EBITDA
899.6
815.0
1,980.5
1,828.0
Core net profit
361.8
148.9
(11.3)
152.7
Core EPS (sen)
29.4
11.1
(0.7)
10.0
Core EPS growth (%)
(20.2)
(62.3)
nm
nm
Net DPS (sen)
7.3
2.8
0.0
2.5
Core P/E (x)
18.3
48.5
(722.2)
53.5
P/BV (x)
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.9
Net dividend yield (%)
1.4
0.5
0.0
0.5
ROAE (%)
5.7
2.2
(0.1)
1.7
ROAA (%)
3.2
0.9
(0.1)
0.7
EV/EBITDA (x)
15.5
15.9
6.5
7.1
Net debt/equity (%)
55.7
57.7
51.1
51.8
§  3Q15 was above expectations on surprise cost slump.
§  Traffic slowing with no near term catalyst in sight.
§  Maintain HOLD with an unchanged TP of MYR5.45 based on unchanged 0.9x FY16 P/BV peg.

MY: British American Tobacco (ROTH MK)
Share Price: MYR64.20
Target Price: MYR63.00
Recommendation: Hold


Liew Wei Han
(603) 2297 8676
weihan.l@maybank-ib.com

Results Review: 3Q15: No surprises

FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
Revenue
4,517.2
4,796.0
4,865.4
4,757.0
EBITDA
1,182.4
1,277.0
1,312.4
1,305.8
Core net profit
823.4
902.0
934.9
932.9
Core EPS (sen)
288.4
315.9
327.4
326.7
Core EPS growth (%)
3.2
9.5
3.6
(0.2)
Net DPS (sen)
282.0
309.0
320.4
320.3
Core P/E (x)
22.3
20.3
19.6
19.7
P/BV (x)
36.1
35.0
33.7
32.4
Net dividend yield (%)
4.4
4.8
5.0
5.0
ROAE (%)
165.8
174.7
174.9
168.1
ROAA (%)
58.5
nm
nm
nm
EV/EBITDA (x)
15.9
14.8
14.2
14.2
Net debt/equity (%)
88.6
65.9
56.4
47.8
§  3Q15 results in line; some demand recovery post weak 2Q15.
§  Still wary of near-term demand given weaker purchasing power, while valuations are fair.
§  Maintain HOLD with an unchanged DCF-based TP of MYR63.

MY: Technicals

Lee Cheng Hooi
(603) 2297 8694
chenghooi.lee@maybank-ib.com

Technical Research: A weaker index below 1,700


§  DIGI - On a very strong downward Wave 5 move.
§  FBMKLCI – The index is expected to be weaker.
§  Supports of 1,661 and 1,690 may be weaker.
§  Resistances of 1,696 and 1,720 will cap any rebound.

MY: Other News

Malaysia Research Team

Economics Research:


Outside Malaysia
  U.S: Consumer confidence fell in October to a three-month low
  U.S: Orders for business equipment unexpectedly decline in September
  U.S: August home prices in 20 cities appreciate at faster pace
  U.K. Economy expands less than forecast in 3Q 2015 as production cools
  Japan: Retail sales up less than expected in September
Malaysia
  Construction: MYR8b Gemas-JB double-track rail plans up for inspection
  Success Transformer: To sell its SEB stake
  Brahim’s: Accepts MYR218m offer from Singapore-listed firm

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