|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR4.75
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR5.25
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3Q16 results
within expectations
|
|
| While RHB’s 3Q16 results were within expectations, the
rise in gross impaired loans (+26% YTD) warrants monitoring at this
stage, especially since loan loss coverage (LLC), including regulatory
reserves, has further declined to 75% end-Sep 2016. Our forecasts are
maintained while our TP is tweaked marginally lower to MYR5.25 (-5sen)
on an unchanged 2017 PBV of 0.9x (estd 9.7% ROAE). HOLD maintained. |
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
Operating income
|
6,234.9
|
6,191.2
|
6,338.3
|
6,563.2
|
Pre-provision profit
|
2,823.7
|
2,398.0
|
3,151.1
|
3,348.2
|
Core net profit
|
1,925.6
|
1,689.2
|
2,118.4
|
2,229.0
|
Core EPS (MYR)
|
0.71
|
0.65
|
0.53
|
0.56
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
3.2
|
(9.2)
|
(18.6)
|
5.2
|
Net DPS (MYR)
|
0.06
|
0.12
|
0.16
|
0.17
|
Core P/E (x)
|
6.6
|
7.3
|
9.0
|
8.5
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.7
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
0.8
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
1.3
|
2.5
|
3.4
|
3.6
|
Book value (MYR)
|
7.31
|
5.11
|
5.58
|
5.83
|
ROAE (%)
|
10.8
|
9.3
|
10.6
|
9.7
|
ROAA (%)
|
0.9
|
0.8
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR0.60
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR0.72
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3Q16 results a
miss
|
|
| 9M16 results was below our expectations, on a
weaker-than-expected 3Q16, resulting in an 11-66% cut in 2016-18
earnings and a lower TP. While we expect a knee-jerk reaction in share
price from this setback, downside is limited. Its investment focus from
2017 onwards is on improving its risk-to-reward outlook. The successful
delivery of its 4 key FPSO/ FSU projects from 4Q16 will contribute to a
rebound in earnings/ cashflows. Positive outcome from Armada Claire’s
ongoing court case is a catalyst |
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
Revenue
|
2,397.3
|
2,179.7
|
1,508.7
|
1,918.9
|
EBITDA
|
1,029.4
|
1,101.7
|
693.6
|
1,182.4
|
Core net profit
|
399.6
|
360.7
|
73.8
|
269.8
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
7.9
|
6.1
|
1.3
|
4.6
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(48.4)
|
(22.2)
|
(79.5)
|
265.4
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
1.6
|
0.8
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Core P/E (x)
|
7.6
|
9.8
|
47.7
|
13.0
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.5
|
0.5
|
0.5
|
0.5
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
2.7
|
1.4
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
ROAE (%)
|
4.0
|
(3.4)
|
(8.9)
|
4.0
|
ROAA (%)
|
3.4
|
2.2
|
0.4
|
1.5
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
8.2
|
11.4
|
16.5
|
9.4
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
43.0
|
89.1
|
119.2
|
108.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR10.52
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR10.18
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Earnings caught
up in 3Q16
|
|
| After a dismal 1H16 core earnings which met just 28% of
our full-year forecast, earnings caught up significantly in 3Q16 on
higher CPO and PK ASPs. 9M16 core profit met 65% of our full-year
forecast – within expectations. We anticipate an equally strong, if
not, better earnings in 4Q16 on higher output and still strong CPO ASP.
We maintain our earnings forecasts. HOLD with an unchanged RNAV-TP of
MYR10.18. |
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
Revenue
|
1,642.9
|
1,374.9
|
1,501.7
|
1,669.1
|
EBITDA
|
562.6
|
358.7
|
423.4
|
541.7
|
Core net profit
|
380.0
|
205.7
|
256.1
|
340.4
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
49.3
|
26.3
|
32.7
|
43.5
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
22.7
|
(46.7)
|
24.5
|
32.9
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
10.0
|
5.5
|
6.5
|
8.7
|
Core P/E (x)
|
21.3
|
40.0
|
32.1
|
24.2
|
P/BV (x)
|
2.1
|
2.0
|
1.9
|
1.8
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
1.0
|
0.5
|
0.6
|
0.8
|
ROAE (%)
|
10.3
|
4.7
|
5.9
|
7.5
|
ROAA (%)
|
7.3
|
3.2
|
3.5
|
4.4
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
14.1
|
26.3
|
22.6
|
17.8
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
19.2
|
23.6
|
23.8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR2.42
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR2.35
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Challenging
times ahead
|
|
| We cut our FY16-18 earnings estimates by 13%-22%. We also
lower our FY17-18 DPS estimates to 15sen but keep FY16 DPS estimates
unchanged. With poor consumer sentiment expected to prolong for the
remainder of the year, we do not expect a substantial print adex
recovery in 4Q16 despite 4Q being seasonally stronger for ads. Our
SOP-based TP is unchanged at MYR2.35 as our earnings adjustments were
mainly from non-cash expenses. Maintain HOLD. |
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
Revenue
|
1,013.7
|
1,019.0
|
1,055.2
|
1,056.7
|
EBITDA
|
242.3
|
211.2
|
159.1
|
176.3
|
Core net profit
|
151.5
|
131.9
|
72.3
|
94.3
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
20.5
|
17.9
|
9.8
|
12.8
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
4.8
|
(12.9)
|
(45.2)
|
30.5
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
18.0
|
18.0
|
18.0
|
15.0
|
Core P/E (x)
|
11.8
|
13.5
|
24.7
|
18.9
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
7.4
|
7.4
|
7.4
|
6.2
|
ROAE (%)
|
9.7
|
11.6
|
8.1
|
8.3
|
ROAA (%)
|
9.0
|
7.8
|
4.3
|
5.8
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
5.7
|
6.8
|
9.4
|
8.5
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
Samuel Yin Shao
Yang
|
|
|
Jade Tam
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR3.38
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR4.10
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Discovery of a
new gold mine?
|
|
| We are excited over Inari’s entry into the fast growing
infrared LED segment whose applications include iris recognition. Post
yesterday’s analyst briefing, our FY17-19 earnings forecasts are raised
by 8-11%, having rejigged our USD/MYR estimates and revenue
contribution from each division. Further upside could emerge on (i)
faster adoption of iris scanners by smartphone players and/or (ii)
sustained USD/MYR forex at above 4.40. Reiterate BUY with higher TP of
MYR4.10 on unchanged 17.5x CY17 EPS |
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Jun (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
Revenue
|
933.1
|
1,040.9
|
1,405.8
|
1,589.5
|
EBITDA
|
187.3
|
203.0
|
284.7
|
343.8
|
Core net profit
|
147.7
|
155.8
|
213.7
|
250.3
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
15.9
|
16.0
|
21.8
|
25.6
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
37.1
|
0.5
|
36.9
|
17.1
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
7.1
|
8.4
|
9.8
|
11.5
|
Core P/E (x)
|
21.3
|
21.2
|
15.5
|
13.2
|
P/BV (x)
|
5.9
|
4.8
|
4.1
|
3.5
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
2.1
|
2.5
|
2.9
|
3.4
|
ROAE (%)
|
38.4
|
24.3
|
28.8
|
28.8
|
ROAA (%)
|
22.1
|
18.2
|
22.4
|
22.6
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
11.9
|
13.4
|
11.1
|
9.0
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.80
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.95
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1QFY17 below
expectations
|
|
| With softer overall car production by its major customers,
Pecca’s 1QFY6/17 core earnings fell to MYR4.4m (-8% QoQ), making up
only 17% of our initial full-year forecasts. Nevertheless, vehicle
production of the major marques has recovered strongly since Oct 2016,
while potential corporate developments could provide upside to
earnings, Meanwhile, valuations are still undemanding and we maintain
BUY with a lower TP of MYR1.95 (MYR2.18 previously), pegged to an
unchanged 14.5x CY17 PER. |
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Jun (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
Revenue
|
129.5
|
126.3
|
166.4
|
185.0
|
EBITDA
|
27.7
|
22.6
|
30.4
|
41.4
|
Core net profit
|
17.9
|
16.5
|
21.3
|
29.2
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
9.5
|
8.8
|
11.3
|
15.5
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
23.8
|
(8.0)
|
29.3
|
36.9
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
4.4
|
4.0
|
5.7
|
7.8
|
Core P/E (x)
|
18.9
|
20.5
|
15.9
|
11.6
|
P/BV (x)
|
4.8
|
2.2
|
2.0
|
1.9
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
2.4
|
2.2
|
3.1
|
4.3
|
ROAE (%)
|
27.6
|
12.7
|
13.1
|
16.7
|
ROAA (%)
|
17.5
|
11.3
|
11.3
|
14.4
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
na
|
9.4
|
8.6
|
6.1
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR2.43
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR3.00
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3Q17 missed
expectations
|
|
| A fire incident at a major insulation part vendor’s plant
capped MBM’s earnings recovery in 3Q16 as the supply chain disruption
snowballed to Perodua and MBM's auto parts operations . As such, we cut
our FY16 earnings forecast by 8%, having reduced (i) Perodua’s FY16
vehicle sales to 215k units and (ii) contribution from its auto parts
JV. Our FY17/18 earnings forecast are unchanged. MBM is still on track
for recovery in FY17. Maintain BUY with unchanged MYR3.00 TP, pegged at
10x FY17 EPS. |
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
Revenue
|
1,774.1
|
1,815.1
|
1,688.9
|
1,916.2
|
EBITDA
|
17.8
|
49.7
|
16.9
|
31.8
|
Core net profit
|
112.2
|
87.1
|
81.9
|
117.2
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
28.7
|
22.3
|
21.0
|
30.0
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(18.8)
|
(22.3)
|
(6.0)
|
43.1
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
8.0
|
10.0
|
8.0
|
8.0
|
Core P/E (x)
|
8.5
|
10.9
|
11.6
|
8.1
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.3
|
4.1
|
3.3
|
3.3
|
ROAE (%)
|
7.6
|
5.4
|
5.2
|
7.1
|
ROAA (%)
|
4.6
|
3.7
|
3.4
|
4.6
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
91.1
|
28.2
|
77.9
|
40.3
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
11.2
|
8.8
|
2.7
|
0.4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MACRO RESEARCH
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
OPR stays, eyes on MYR
by
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BNM kept the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 3.00% at
the last MPC meeting for the year, notwithstanding the US election
outcome. This is in line with our expectation following the
better-than-expected 4.3% YoY real GDP growth in 3Q 2016 and amid
current weakness bias in MYR. We now expect OPR to stay at 3.00% in
2017 against the previous forecast range of 2.75%-3.00%, which implied
possibility of a 25bps cut. |
|
|
|
|
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
Zamros
Dzulkafli
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Deflating deflation
by
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Headline deflation rate eased further to -0.1% YoY in
Oct 2016 (Sep 2016: -0.2% YoY) while core inflation edged up to +1.1%
YoY (Sep 2016: +0.9% YoY). Our full-year headline deflation and core
inflation forecasts are -0.4% and +1.0% respectively. |
|
|
|
|
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
Zamros
Dzulkafli
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEWS
|
|
|
Outside Malaysia:
U.S: Consumer sentiment jumps after Trump election
victory. Consumer confidence rose more than previously reported to a
six-month high in November, showing Americans became more optimistic
about their finances and the economy after Donald Trump won the presidential
election. The University of Michigan said that its final index of
sentiment rose to 93.8 from 87.2 in October, after a preliminary reading
of 91.6 that reflected pre-election views. The split was stark between
respondents in the month’s survey before and after the Nov. 8 vote, with
sentiment rising 8.2 points in the post-election group from the
pre-election cohort. (Source: Bloomberg)
U.S: Fed officials saw rate hike relatively soon, minutes
show. Federal Reserve officials saw a strengthening case to raise
interest rates as the labor market tightened, with some saying a hike
should happen in December, according to minutes of their November
gathering released. “Some participants noted that recent committee
communications were consistent with an increase in the target range for
the federal funds rate in the near term or argued that to preserve
credibility, such an increase should occur at the next meeting,” the
record of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed. Many
officials said a rate rise could be appropriate “relatively soon,” data
permitting, it said. (Source: Bloomberg)
U.S: Orders for capital goods rise for fourth month in
last five and sales also advanced, indicating corporate investment may be
starting to thaw. Bookings for non-military capital goods excluding
aircraft -- a proxy for future spending on items like computers, engines
and communications gear -- rose 0.4%, Commerce Department data showed.
Demand for all durable goods -- items meant to last at least three years
-- jumped 4.8% on a surge in orders for commercial aircraft. (Source:
Bloomberg)
E.U: Euro-area economic growth accelerated to its fastest
pace this year as growing order books prompted companies to add more
workers and raise prices. A Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing
and services rose to 54.1 in November from 53.3 a month earlier, IHS
Markit said. That’s the strongest level in 11 months and above the 50
mark that divides expansion from contraction. The signs that recovery is
gathering momentum should give some relief to the European Central Bank
as it faces a complex decision on Dec. 8 whether to extend its EUR 1.7t
(USD 1.8t) quantitative-easing program. (Source: Bloomberg)
Thailand: Seeking to set up an investment holding company
next year for government shareholdings, part of a wider effort to improve
the performance of state-controlled enterprises. A law to boost the
governance of such firms and enable the creation of the holding company
may be enacted by March, according to Ekniti Nitithanprapas, the director
general of the State Enterprise Policy Office. "We’d like the
holding company to work in an efficient way like Temasek or
Khazanah," Ekniti said. State enterprises are planning THB 446b (USD
12.5b) of investment in 2017, according to the policy office. (Source:
Bloomberg) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other News:
Ekovest: MYR400m more construction jobs in FY17. The group
is close to securing approximately MYR400m more construction contracts
for its 2017 financial year, which will boost its order book to over
MYR7b. According to its managing director Datuk Seri Lim Keng Cheng, its
current order book of MYR6.6b will keep the group busy over the next
three to four years. The group is targeting to add about MYR800m more to
their order book, (of which) about MYR400m comprises the recent Kuala
Lumpur City Hall DBKL awards. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)
Sedania Innovator: U Mobile partners Sedania Innovator to
develop dealers’ portal. U Mobile S/B has partnered with technology
empowerment company Sedania Innovator to develop U Mobile dealers’ portal
to increase the efficiencies of the telco’s 200 dealers nationwide. Upon
completion of the portal, U Mobile said its network of dealers will be
provided with the use of U Mobile approved comprehensive customer focus
experience material that they can refer to at any time. Sedania Innovator
managing director Datuk Azrin Mohd Noor said the portal would allow U
Mobile to “enforce” their strict code of “customer first” golden rule to
all its dealers – either existing or new. (Source; The Sun Daily)
Malakoff : Seeks MYR785m compensation from EPCC
contractors of Tg Bin plant. Its subsidiary Tanjung Bin Power S/B (TBP)
is seeking claims totaling MYR785m from the consortium engaged to
construct its 2,100 MW power plant in Johor. The arbitration is in
relation to boiler tube failures at the plant in 2013. It followed a
MYR782m lawsuit filed by TBP against IHI Corp Japan, ISHI Power S/B and
IHI Power Systems (M) S/B in December last year. Malakoff said there were
at least 22 different boiler tube failure incidents at the plant, which led
to the plant’s inability to meet certain required output conditions.
(Source: The Star)
Econpile: 1Q net profit up 13.5%, pays 1.5 sen dividend.
Piling and foundation specialist Econpile, net profit rose 13.5% to
MYR16.45m or 3.07 sen a share in the 1QFY17 from MYR14.5m or 2.71 sen a
share a year ago, mainly driven by contributions from piling and
foundation works for property development projects. Econpile also
announced a first interim dividend of 1.5 sen per share for FY17, payable
on Dec 21. The group has a dividend policy of distributing minimum 20% of
its net profit to shareholders. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)
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