|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR13.12
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR15.20
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Decent earnings
momentum
|
|
We maintain our BUY call on HL Bank. 1QFY17 has thus far
seen decent earnings momentum relative to peers and this has been aided
by positive JAWS as well by renewed earnings expansion from Bank of
Chengdu (BOC). Liquidity is more than ample while loan loss coverage is
comfortable. Our forecasts are maintained as is our TP of MYR15.00
(1.4x CY17 PBV, 10% ROE).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Jun (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Operating income
|
4,039.1
|
4,066.9
|
4,333.2
|
4,527.8
|
|
Pre-provision profit
|
2,246.8
|
2,253.1
|
2,466.6
|
2,600.2
|
|
Core net profit
|
2,102.3
|
2,233.2
|
2,291.0
|
2,370.8
|
|
Core EPS (MYR)
|
1.19
|
1.26
|
1.27
|
1.32
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
12.8
|
5.9
|
0.8
|
3.5
|
|
Net DPS (MYR)
|
0.41
|
0.41
|
0.42
|
0.43
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
11.0
|
10.4
|
10.3
|
10.0
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.7
|
1.5
|
1.4
|
1.3
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.1
|
3.1
|
3.2
|
3.3
|
|
Book value (MYR)
|
7.73
|
8.93
|
9.48
|
10.06
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
15.3
|
14.3
|
13.2
|
12.9
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
1.3
|
1.3
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR15.10
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR17.10
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1QFY17 within
expectations
|
|
HLFG’s 1QFY17 results were within expectations, with HL
Bank (HLBK MK, BUY; TP: MYR15.00) accounting for 93% of group pretax
profit. We maintain our HOLD call on HLFG with an unchanged SOP-derived
TP of MYR17.10. At this stage, we believe there is better value in HL
Bank which offers exposure to a retail bank with impeccable
fundamentals and an upside of 15% to our TP.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Jun (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Operating income
|
4,490.9
|
4,543.3
|
4,783.5
|
5,045.1
|
|
Pre-provision profit
|
2,490.7
|
2,258.9
|
2,557.0
|
2,732.6
|
|
Core net profit
|
1,543.6
|
1,489.5
|
1,540.9
|
1,618.4
|
|
Core FDEPS (MYR)
|
1.48
|
1.43
|
1.48
|
1.55
|
|
Core FDEPS growth(%)
|
(9.6)
|
(3.5)
|
3.5
|
5.0
|
|
Net DPS (MYR)
|
0.38
|
0.38
|
0.39
|
0.41
|
|
Core FD P/E (x)
|
10.2
|
10.6
|
10.2
|
9.7
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.2
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
1.0
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
2.5
|
2.5
|
2.6
|
2.7
|
|
Book value (MYR)
|
12.45
|
13.37
|
14.31
|
15.31
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
12.6
|
10.5
|
9.7
|
9.5
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
0.8
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.55
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.90
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1QFY/17 results
in line
|
|
1Q17 core earnings accounted for 23%/30% of our
forecast/consensus. Dialog is a direct proxy to PETRONAS’ RAPID and
Pengerang plays. It offers steady, long-term, sustainable growth
prospects with strong cash flows and dividends to boot. A proposed
capacity expansion at its Phase 1 operations in Pengerang is a prospect
not factored into our model yet, potentially adding 25sen
(back-of-envelope calculation) to NPV.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Jun (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
2,358.2
|
2,534.5
|
2,640.0
|
2,690.0
|
|
EBITDA
|
292.0
|
367.5
|
352.4
|
352.7
|
|
Core net profit
|
253.0
|
261.0
|
272.3
|
296.8
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
5.1
|
5.0
|
5.3
|
5.7
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
18.2
|
(0.9)
|
4.3
|
9.0
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
2.2
|
2.2
|
2.2
|
2.3
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
30.4
|
30.7
|
29.4
|
27.0
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
3.9
|
3.3
|
3.1
|
2.9
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
1.4
|
1.4
|
1.4
|
1.5
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
15.5
|
13.4
|
10.9
|
11.1
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
7.4
|
6.7
|
6.9
|
7.8
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
27.3
|
21.7
|
24.0
|
24.2
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
13.7
|
15.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.69
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.78
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Potential
kitchen-sinking exercise in 4Q16
|
|
FGV guides for a full-year loss for 2016 after 9M16
headline profits disappointed. While the operational outlook could be
better in 4Q16, FGV guides for potential impairment of asset(s) at
year-end. Without factoring potential kitchen-sinking exercises, we cut
our core 2016-18 EPS by -123%/-17%/-18%, and tweak our TP to MYR1.78
(-1%) on an unchanged 1x P/BV. Given the recent correction in price, we
believe the negatives have been priced in - maintain HOLD.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
16,434.3
|
15,669.7
|
16,795.2
|
17,097.3
|
|
EBITDA
|
1,293.9
|
957.4
|
856.7
|
1,094.0
|
|
Core net profit
|
95.7
|
(171.8)
|
(32.7)
|
208.0
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
2.6
|
(4.7)
|
(0.9)
|
5.7
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
545.6
|
nm
|
nm
|
nm
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
10.0
|
4.0
|
0.0
|
3.4
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
64.4
|
nm
|
nm
|
29.6
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
5.9
|
2.4
|
0.0
|
2.0
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
5.2
|
0.7
|
(0.2)
|
3.2
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
0.5
|
(0.8)
|
(0.2)
|
1.0
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
9.0
|
12.4
|
14.4
|
11.6
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
13.6
|
34.3
|
38.9
|
41.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.62
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.80
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3Q16: Slightly
behind
|
|
SCG’s 9M16 results came in slightly behind our forecast
due to slower-than-expected construction works recognition and lower
precast margin. We trim our FY16/FY17/FY18 net profit forecasts by
5.0%/0.3%/0.8% after tweaking for works recognition and lowering
precast EBIT margin assumption. We remain positive on SCG with its
strong outstanding orderbook of MYR4.8b which should provide for decent
earnings growth ahead. The stock stays our top mid-cap BUY in the
construction sector.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,880.7
|
1,916.9
|
2,329.6
|
2,528.4
|
|
EBITDA
|
151.2
|
178.2
|
195.5
|
241.4
|
|
Core net profit
|
114.2
|
127.7
|
128.3
|
164.3
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
8.8
|
9.9
|
9.9
|
12.7
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
20.9
|
11.9
|
0.4
|
28.1
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
30.5
|
4.0
|
3.5
|
4.4
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
18.3
|
16.4
|
16.3
|
12.7
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
6.3
|
4.6
|
3.9
|
3.3
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
18.9
|
2.5
|
2.1
|
2.7
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
26.3
|
32.6
|
26.0
|
28.0
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
8.4
|
9.2
|
8.1
|
9.4
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
na
|
8.7
|
8.8
|
6.7
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
Chew Hann Wong
|
|
|
|
Adrian Wong
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR0.40
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR0.42
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Great 3Q16 but
fading outlook
|
|
3Q16 core net profit was MYR34.9m (versus a loss of
MYR50.4m in 3Q15) after adjusting for one-off items, FX-translation and
AAX’s share of losses in associates. This was slightly ahead of our
expectations and 9M16 accounted for 76% of our full-year forecast. We
keep our earnings forecasts, our HOLD call and TP of MYR0.42 unchanged
based on 8x 2017 PER, which is the bottom of the typical airline cycle
of 8-15x.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
2,939.1
|
3,062.6
|
4,040.7
|
5,008.2
|
|
EBITDAR
|
303.6
|
788.1
|
1,295.6
|
1,585.5
|
|
Core net profit
|
(394.8)
|
(234.9)
|
164.3
|
215.1
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
(16.7)
|
(6.9)
|
4.0
|
5.2
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
nm
|
nm
|
nm
|
30.9
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
nm
|
nm
|
10.1
|
7.7
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.2
|
2.2
|
1.9
|
1.5
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
(10.1)
|
(6.1)
|
3.7
|
3.7
|
|
EV/EBITDAR (x)
|
8.8
|
2.2
|
2.3
|
2.4
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
180.8
|
179.7
|
151.1
|
195.3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR3.30
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR3.80
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
A decent
kick-off
|
|
Softer sequential core earnings (-4% QoQ) despite a 10%
QoQ improvement in 1QFY6/17 revenue were in line having accounted for
start-up costs at Inari’s new manufacturing plants. Going forward,
2QFY6/17 earnings could potentially be boosted by favourable USD/MYR
forex and operations turnaround at the P-21 plant. We keep our earnings
forecasts unchanged seeing upside bias in terms of our FY17-19 USD/MYR
estimate which stands a 3.90 currently. Maintain BUY with unchanged
MYR3.80 TP (17.5x CY17 EPS)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Jun (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
933.1
|
1,040.9
|
1,340.6
|
1,547.5
|
|
EBITDA
|
187.3
|
203.0
|
268.5
|
318.1
|
|
Core net profit
|
147.7
|
155.8
|
198.0
|
225.6
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
15.9
|
16.0
|
20.3
|
23.1
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
37.1
|
0.5
|
27.1
|
13.9
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
7.1
|
8.4
|
9.1
|
10.4
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
20.8
|
20.7
|
16.3
|
14.3
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
5.7
|
4.7
|
4.1
|
3.5
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
2.2
|
2.5
|
2.8
|
3.2
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
38.4
|
24.3
|
26.8
|
26.4
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
22.1
|
18.2
|
20.9
|
20.7
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
11.9
|
13.4
|
11.4
|
9.5
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR6.89
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR6.35
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Disappointing
3Q16 results
|
|
Weaker 3Q16 results were below our expectations and the
market’s. However, earnings could improve in 4Q on the progressive
completion of the plant revamp and higher USD/MYR. We lower our 2016-18
EPS by 16%/6%/6%; but our TP is nudged up to MYR6.35 (+6%) based on 18x
CY17 PER (latest 4-year mean PER; 16x CY17 PER previously). While
Kossan is a beneficiary of a rising USD/MYR, we are neutral on the
stock as it is already fairly valued, with its CY17 PER at 20x.
Maintain HOLD.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,299.3
|
1,635.9
|
1,925.8
|
2,238.3
|
|
EBITDA
|
247.9
|
343.2
|
325.2
|
399.8
|
|
Core net profit
|
143.8
|
203.3
|
179.0
|
224.8
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
22.5
|
31.8
|
28.0
|
35.1
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
5.4
|
41.4
|
(11.9)
|
25.5
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
7.0
|
12.7
|
14.0
|
17.6
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
30.6
|
21.7
|
24.6
|
19.6
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
5.5
|
4.5
|
4.1
|
3.7
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
1.0
|
1.8
|
2.0
|
2.6
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
nm
|
nm
|
nm
|
nm
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
12.1
|
14.8
|
11.5
|
12.9
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
12.0
|
17.4
|
13.7
|
11.3
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
11.0
|
1.7
|
2.1
|
8.1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR0.83
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.02
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Better earnings
ahead
|
|
The weaker 1QFY6/17 results were below our expectation but
we expect earnings to pick up sequentially. Our FY6/17-18 EPS is
lowered by 11%/5% and consequently, our SOP-based TP is lowered to
MYR1.02 (-5%). HALG’s share price has fallen 38% YTD and the stock
currently trades at a CY17 PER of 7x, in line with its historical mean.
Given the upside to our SOP (backed by its landbank), we upgrade the
stock to BUY (from HOLD). At our revised TP, the implied CY17 PER of 8x
is still undemanding.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Jun (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
507.0
|
592.7
|
564.4
|
613.9
|
|
EBITDA
|
97.4
|
133.3
|
102.4
|
103.5
|
|
Core net profit
|
48.2
|
59.0
|
45.4
|
51.4
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
12.0
|
14.7
|
11.3
|
12.8
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Core EPS growth (%)
|
44.2
|
22.5
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(23.0)
|
13.2
|
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Net DPS (sen)
|
2.5
|
2.0
|
2.3
|
2.6
|
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Core P/E (x)
|
6.9
|
5.6
|
7.3
|
6.5
|
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P/BV (x)
|
1.2
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
0.8
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Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.0
|
2.4
|
2.7
|
3.1
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ROAE (%)
|
na
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na
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na
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na
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ROAA (%)
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9.0
|
10.0
|
7.4
|
7.9
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EV/EBITDA (x)
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5.1
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3.1
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3.3
|
2.9
|
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Net debt/equity (%)
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net cash
|
0.4
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net cash
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net cash
|
|
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MACRO RESEARCH
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Surprisingly up
by
Suhaimi Ilias
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External reserves as at 15 Nov 2016 increased USD0.5b
to USD98.3b (MYR407.8b) from USD97.8b (MYR405.5b) at end-Oct 2016. This
is the highest level since reserves level fell below USD100b at
end-July 2015. Latest tally is equivalent to 8.4 months of retained
imports and 1.2 times of short-term external debt.
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Suhaimi Ilias
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Zamros
Dzulkafli
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NEWS
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Outside Malaysia:
U.S. Existing home sales climb to highest since early
2007, a sign of momentum in the housing market a month before a jump in
borrowing costs, National Association of Realtors data showed. Contract
closings rose 2% to a 5.60 million annual rate (forecast was 5.44
million). Sales increased 0.5% YoY from October 2015 before seasonal
adjustment. Median sales price rose 6% YoY from October 2015 to USD
232,200 while inventory of available properties fell 4.3% YoY to 2.02
million, marking the 17th straight year- over-year decline. (Source:
Bloomberg)
U.K: Britain posted a smaller-than-forecast budget deficit
in October as tax receipts jumped, handing a boost to Chancellor of the
Exchequer Philip Hammond on the eve of his key fiscal statement. Net
borrowing stood at GBP 4.8b (USD 6b), down from GBP 6.4b a year earlier
and below the GBP 6b predicted in a Bloomberg survey, Office for National
Statistics figures published show. Tax receipts rose 6.8% and government
spending grew 2.6%. (Source: Bloomberg)
Australia: RBA sees boost to economy as prospects in
mining states improve. Australia’s economy may get a boost from mining
states as the drag from falling resource investment eases and higher
commodity prices bring windfall cash. Nominal demand in Western Australia
and Queensland is set to improve, providing support to the national
economy, Reserve Bank Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said in a
speech in Sydney. “That would contribute to a rise in domestic
inflationary pressures and a gradual return of inflation to more normal
levels,” Kent said in the address to economists. “If our forecasts are
right, the terms of trade will shift from the substantial headwind of
recent years to a slight tail breeze providing some support to the growth
of nominal demand.” (Source: Bloomberg)
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Other News:
E.A. Technique: To acquire topside equipment for
MYR106.4m. E.A. Technique Bhd (Eatech) has entered into conditional sale
and purchase agreement with MTC Engineering Sdn Bhd to acquire topside
equipment currently attached to Eatech’s vessel for USD24m (MYR106.4m).
The equipment comprised, among others, an extended well test system,
flare tower system, metering skid, cargo pump, quick release hook and
helideck. Upon completion of the acquisition, Eatech will own the topside
equipment which will enable it to service the contract involving the
direct leasing of its vessel, MT Nautica Muar, and topside equipment to
Vestigo Petroleum Sdn Bhd IVPSB. (Source: The Star)
Top Glove: To expand R&D to improve product quality.
Top Glove Corporation’s Executive Chaiman, Tan Sri Dr Lim Wee Chai said
at the FMM Factory Management Conference 2016 yesterday that the company,
which currently employs 100 researchers, was planning to recruit between
200 and 300 researchers to be able to produce better gloves for surgical,
household and industrial use. On foreign labour, he also said that that
company may let go some 1,000 workers and replace them with automation as
savings may come up to MYR24m per year. (Source: The Star)
Bonia Corporation: Plans A&P campaigns, loss-making
boutique closures to improve results. Apparel manufacturer and retailer
Bonia Corp expects continuous advertising and promotional (A&P)
activities as well as the closing of its loss-making boutiques to improve
its performance in the financial year ending Jun 30, 2017. Group managing
director Datuk Albert Chiang said the company has allocated between 5%
and 7% of its revenue for A&P programmes. Also, In FY16, 10 boutiques
had been closed involving licensed brand boutiques and not the company’s
own brand outlets. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)
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