Friday, November 25, 2016

Palette Multimedia: Plans to diversify into traditional Chinese medicine. The group entered into a term






Axiata Group | Recalibrating expectation
Chi Wei Tan







Genting Bhd | Laggard play to GENM and GENS
Samuel Yin Shao Yang







Genting Malaysia | All eyes on 2017
Samuel Yin Shao Yang







Magnum Berhad | Ought to have fared better
Samuel Yin Shao Yang







IHH Healthcare | Healthy results but expansion drag continued
John Cheong







AirAsia Bhd | Record 3Q16 to underpin a record 2016
Mohshin Aziz







KNM Group | 3Q16: Missed expectations
Thong Jung Liaw







7-Eleven Malaysia Holdings | 3Q16 below expectations
Liew Wei Han







AEON Co. (M) | 3Q16: Retailing took a big hit
Kevin Wong







Hock Seng Lee | 3Q16: Still lagging
Chew Hann Wong







Oldtown | 2QFY17: On track
Liew Wei Han









break





Malaysia | SAKP to be replaced by IJM?
Chew Hann Wong







Malaysia | 34 additions, 30 deletions
Desmond Ch'ng







Malaysia | Growth slowdown stabilised
Suhaimi Ilias







Singapore | Switching to slower lane
Suhaimi Ilias








break


COMPANY RESEARCH





Company Update





Axiata Group (AXIATA MK)
by Chi Wei Tan





Share Price:
MYR4.31
Target Price:
MYR4.60
Recommendation:
Hold




Recalibrating expectation

9M16 results were below ours/consensus expectations, partly on higher-than-expected depreciation. Celcom’s revenue trends appear to have stabilised, while there seems to be an element of kitchen-sinking with respect to cost. Maintain HOLD with a lower MYR4.60 TP (-20%) as we lower earnings (-20%-31%) to reflect latest operating trends.



FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue
18,711.8
19,883.5
20,891.1
22,682.4
EBITDA
6,998.6
7,284.1
8,021.2
8,799.5
Core net profit
2,239.0
2,071.0
1,666.9
1,781.5
Core EPS (sen)
26.1
23.9
18.9
20.2
Core EPS growth (%)
(15.8)
(8.6)
(20.9)
6.9
Net DPS (sen)
22.0
20.0
16.1
17.2
Core P/E (x)
16.5
18.0
22.8
21.3
P/BV (x)
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.5
Net dividend yield (%)
5.1
4.6
3.7
4.0
ROAE (%)
11.6
11.5
6.9
7.2
ROAA (%)
4.8
3.9
2.8
2.9
EV/EBITDA (x)
10.1
9.4
6.9
6.2
Net debt/equity (%)
38.9
42.3
52.5
48.3










Rating Change





Genting Bhd (GENT MK)
by Samuel Yin Shao Yang





Share Price:
MYR8.06
Target Price:
MYR9.75
Recommendation:
Buy




Laggard play to GENM and GENS

Core net profit outperformed on lower-than-expected core tax rate and higher-than-expected VIP win rate. We raise our EPS estimates by 9-16%. Utilising our higher TPs for GENM (MYR5.35) and GENS (SGD0.73) and ascribing an unchanged 20% discount, our new SOP-based TP for GENT is MYR9.75. GENT currently trades at -34% to its SOP/sh valuation or -1SD to its long term mean. With the Genting Integrated Tourism Plan (GITP) and Banten power plant, we expect the discount to narrow.



FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue
18,216.5
18,100.4
18,667.6
19,688.2
EBITDA
6,419.7
5,393.8
5,717.1
7,416.9
Core net profit
1,771.7
1,276.4
1,617.6
2,402.0
Core FDEPS (sen)
46.0
34.2
39.6
57.2
Core FDEPS growth(%)
1.2
(25.6)
15.7
44.4
Net DPS (sen)
4.0
3.5
4.0
5.8
Core FD P/E (x)
17.5
23.5
20.4
14.1
P/BV (x)
1.1
0.9
0.9
0.8
Net dividend yield (%)
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.7
ROAE (%)
5.7
4.7
6.4
7.1
ROAA (%)
2.4
1.6
1.8
2.6
EV/EBITDA (x)
7.6
8.3
7.9
5.8
Net debt/equity (%)
net cash
net cash
net cash
net cash


Samuel Yin Shao Yang








TP Revision





Genting Malaysia (GENM MK)
by Samuel Yin Shao Yang





Share Price:
MYR4.63
Target Price:
MYR5.35
Recommendation:
Buy




All eyes on 2017

Core net profit outperformed on lower-than-expected core tax rate. That said, Resorts World Bimini (RWB) continues to drag group earnings. Trim our GENM pre-tax profit estimates by 5-8% but lift our core net profit estimates by 11-12%. Our SOP-based TP is shaved by 3% to MYR5.35. We remain bullish on Resorts World Genting’s (RWG) Genting Integrated Tourism Plan (GITP) as major properties such as Sky Avenue and Sky Plaza will be opening as soon as next month.



FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue
8,229.4
8,395.9
8,941.2
9,978.2
EBITDA
2,247.6
2,016.3
2,405.1
2,810.7
Core net profit
1,358.1
1,157.9
1,490.1
1,712.4
Core FDEPS (sen)
23.9
20.4
26.2
30.1
Core FDEPS growth(%)
(20.8)
(14.8)
28.5
14.9
Net DPS (sen)
6.5
7.1
8.5
9.9
Core FD P/E (x)
19.3
22.7
17.7
15.4
P/BV (x)
1.6
1.4
1.3
1.2
Net dividend yield (%)
1.4
1.5
1.8
2.1
ROAE (%)
7.5
7.1
14.0
8.3
ROAA (%)
6.7
4.8
5.4
6.1
EV/EBITDA (x)
9.7
12.3
10.4
8.9
Net debt/equity (%)
net cash
0.1
net cash
net cash


Samuel Yin Shao Yang








Rating Change





Magnum Berhad (MAG MK)
by Samuel Yin Shao Yang





Share Price:
MYR2.29
Target Price:
MYR2.50
Recommendation:
Hold




Ought to have fared better

Earnings and dividends disappointed on poorer-than-expected gross number forecasting operating (NFO) sales/draw. We gather that Classic 4D sales fell markedly YoY. It was also disappointing that 3Q16 gross NFO sales/draw was only flattish QoQ after the UEFA Euro Cup. Lower our EPS estimates by 4-6% and our DPS estimates from 16sen p.a. to 13-15sen. Rolling forward our DCF base to end-FY17 from end-FY16, we trim our TP to MYR2.50 to MYR2.58. Downgrade to HOLD.



FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue
2,886.5
2,767.0
2,683.4
2,621.5
EBITDA
416.1
373.9
324.7
370.4
Core net profit
254.8
226.5
203.8
243.0
Core EPS (sen)
17.9
15.9
14.3
17.1
Core EPS growth (%)
(21.9)
(10.9)
(10.0)
19.2
Net DPS (sen)
20.0
16.0
13.0
14.0
Core P/E (x)
12.8
14.4
16.0
13.4
P/BV (x)
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
Net dividend yield (%)
8.7
7.0
5.7
6.1
ROAE (%)
10.4
9.3
8.4
9.9
ROAA (%)
6.9
6.2
5.6
6.9
EV/EBITDA (x)
10.7
11.4
12.1
10.5
Net debt/equity (%)
21.3
25.7
24.7
22.7


Samuel Yin Shao Yang








Results Review





IHH Healthcare (IHH MK)
by John Cheong





Share Price:
MYR6.39
Target Price:
MYR6.52
Recommendation:
Hold




Healthy results but expansion drag continued

3Q16 results were in line with our forecast but missed consensus. 3Q16 core earnings fell 2% YoY and start-up costs for the upcoming Hong Kong Hospital rose 128% QoQ, to MYR20m. We expect the costs to remain high and drag earnings until the opening of the hospital in 1H17. Positively, 3Q16 revenue (+18% YoY) and EBITDA (+15% YoY) growth remain healthy, from sustained organic growth, new hospitals and newly acquired entities in India and Bulgaria. Maintain HOLD and SOTP-based TP of MYR6.52.



FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue
7,344.0
8,455.5
10,547.2
12,281.2
EBITDA
1,943.0
2,218.7
2,473.3
2,844.5
Core net profit
785.0
899.2
858.1
1,016.8
Core FDEPS (sen)
9.5
10.9
10.4
12.3
Core FDEPS growth(%)
28.5
14.5
(5.2)
18.5
Net DPS (sen)
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.5
Core FD P/E (x)
67.0
58.5
61.7
52.0
P/BV (x)
2.7
2.4
2.3
2.2
Net dividend yield (%)
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
ROAE (%)
4.0
4.5
3.8
4.4
ROAA (%)
2.8
2.8
2.4
2.7
EV/EBITDA (x)
22.1
27.4
24.5
21.5
Net debt/equity (%)
8.5
19.3
23.1
22.6










Results Review





AirAsia Bhd (AIRA MK)
by Mohshin Aziz





Share Price:
MYR2.71
Target Price:
MYR3.17
Recommendation:
Buy




Record 3Q16 to underpin a record 2016

3Q16 core earning was MYR459m (+280% YoY, +105% QoQ) after adjusting for FX-translation and asset disposal gain. This was above and accounted for 90% of our full-year forecast. The outlook in 4Q16 is equally good but we have concerns over 2017 on higher competitive pressures and volatile MYR fluctuations. We raise our 2016 earnings by 31% on the strong outlook and raise 2017-18 earnings by 0.6% and 0.8% post-results housekeeping. Our BUY call and TP of MYR3.17 are unchanged.



FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue
5,415.7
6,299.1
7,201.3
6,939.8
EBITDAR
1,732.3
2,617.4
3,471.8
2,877.8
Core net profit
33.2
181.8
1,654.8
1,055.1
Core EPS (sen)
1.2
6.5
49.5
31.6
Core EPS growth (%)
(91.1)
446.8
657.8
(36.2)
Net DPS (sen)
0.0
0.0
16.0
8.0
Core P/E (x)
226.8
41.5
5.5
8.6
P/BV (x)
1.7
1.7
1.3
1.1
Net dividend yield (%)
0.0
0.0
5.9
3.0
ROAE (%)
1.7
12.0
37.4
14.8
ROAA (%)
0.2
0.9
7.5
4.5
EV/EBITDAR (x)
10.9
5.3
4.8
6.4
Net debt/equity (%)
249.9
228.9
106.5
117.9










Company Update





KNM Group (KNMG MK)
by Thong Jung Liaw





Share Price:
MYR0.36
Target Price:
MYR0.65
Recommendation:
Buy




3Q16: Missed expectations

9M16 results came in below, mainly due to persistent setbacks at its Canadian operations in 3Q16. For that, we cut 2016/17 earnings by 31%/24%. Accordingly, we cut our EV/backlog-based TP to MYR0.65 (-19%) on: (i) lower orders assumption by 20% to MYR2b and (ii) rolling over our net debt base year to 2017. KNM’s ability to raise cash in this cyclical downturn is commendable, fuelled by its transformation into a renewable energy (RE) play, a major catalyst. BUY.



FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue
1,865.1
1,641.3
1,665.8
2,170.4
EBITDA
207.9
205.7
105.5
180.4
Core net profit
36.8
45.7
27.0
83.9
Core EPS (sen)
2.4
2.4
1.4
4.5
Core EPS growth (%)
61.2
3.4
(40.8)
210.6
Net DPS (sen)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Core P/E (x)
15.2
14.7
24.9
8.0
P/BV (x)
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
Net dividend yield (%)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
ROAE (%)
2.0
2.0
1.0
3.1
ROAA (%)
0.9
1.1
0.6
1.9
EV/EBITDA (x)
6.3
7.1
10.8
6.0
Net debt/equity (%)
27.2
19.2
17.6
15.1


Thong Jung Liaw








Results Review





7-Eleven Malaysia Holdings (SEM MK)
by Liew Wei Han





Share Price:
MYR1.68
Target Price:
MYR1.40
Recommendation:
Sell




3Q16 below expectations

3Q16 results were below expectations on higher operating expenses (eg. minimum wage hike effective 1 Jul 2016) and weaker-than-expected sales growth. Store openings as of 9M16 at 113 stores lag its target of 200 stores per year. In the near term, focus on cost efficiencies could be key. We lower earnings by 6-8% for FY16-18. Valuations are stretched at 33x FY17 (versus peer average of 27.5x). D/G to SELL with a lower TP of MYR1.40 (-14sen, on an unchanged 27.5x PER CY17; in line with peers).



FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue
1,893.1
2,006.3
2,108.2
2,308.3
EBITDA
130.9
126.5
136.1
146.4
Core net profit
58.1
55.8
56.5
62.6
Core EPS (sen)
4.7
4.6
4.6
5.1
Core EPS growth (%)
15.9
(3.3)
1.2
10.8
Net DPS (sen)
5.1
4.7
2.3
2.6
Core P/E (x)
35.7
36.9
36.4
32.9
P/BV (x)
8.8
12.1
10.4
9.0
Net dividend yield (%)
3.0
2.8
1.4
1.5
ROAE (%)
41.7
27.5
30.6
29.2
ROAA (%)
8.5
7.5
7.3
7.4
EV/EBITDA (x)
12.3
13.9
14.0
12.8
Net debt/equity (%)
net cash
net cash
net cash
net cash










Rating Change





AEON Co. (M) (AEON MK)
by Kevin Wong





Share Price:
MYR2.74
Target Price:
MYR2.00
Recommendation:
Sell




3Q16: Retailing took a big hit

3Q16 results missed estimates. This was mainly due to higher-than-expected operating loss from the Retailing segment and higher interest costs. We lower FY16-18 net profit forecasts by 3-28% and consequently lower our TP by 10sen to MYR2.00 pegged to 24.5x FY17 PER (from 24x).



FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue
3,705.5
3,834.6
4,024.3
4,174.7
EBITDA
485.6
443.9
402.3
458.6
Core net profit
197.7
133.4
73.6
115.3
Core EPS (sen)
14.1
9.5
5.2
8.2
Core EPS growth (%)
(14.4)
(32.5)
(44.9)
56.7
Net DPS (sen)
5.0
4.0
1.8
2.9
Core P/E (x)
19.5
28.8
52.3
33.4
P/BV (x)
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.0
Net dividend yield (%)
1.8
1.5
0.7
1.0
ROAE (%)
12.5
7.4
4.0
6.0
ROAA (%)
6.2
3.6
1.8
2.7
EV/EBITDA (x)
9.3
9.9
10.9
9.3
Net debt/equity (%)
3.3
30.1
27.0
21.2










Results Review





Hock Seng Lee (HSL MK)
by Chew Hann Wong





Share Price:
MYR1.70
Target Price:
MYR2.00
Recommendation:
Buy




3Q16: Still lagging

3Q16 results fell slightly short on slower-than-expected construction works recognition. However, we believe earnings could pick up in 4Q16 as progress of its major construction projects continue to pick up. We keep our earnings estimates unchanged. Its commendable outstanding orderbook of MYR2.2b will help boost earnings growth in FY17. Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of MYR2.00 pegged to 12.5x 2017 PER.



FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue
604.7
654.7
564.3
799.7
EBITDA
109.4
109.2
93.3
126.3
Core net profit
76.9
76.2
63.4
88.5
Core EPS (sen)
14.0
13.9
11.5
16.1
Core EPS growth (%)
(9.2)
(0.9)
(16.9)
39.6
Net DPS (sen)
2.8
2.4
1.7
2.4
Core P/E (x)
12.1
12.3
14.8
10.6
P/BV (x)
1.6
1.4
1.3
1.2
Net dividend yield (%)
1.6
1.4
1.0
1.4
ROAE (%)
na
na
na
na
ROAA (%)
9.7
9.4
7.6
9.6
EV/EBITDA (x)
7.1
8.6
8.5
6.4
Net debt/equity (%)
net cash
net cash
net cash
net cash










Results Review





Oldtown (OTB MK)
by Liew Wei Han





Share Price:
MYR2.02
Target Price:
MYR1.95
Recommendation:
Hold




2QFY17: On track

2QFY3/17 results were in line. F&B saw some higher staff cost in the quarter (from hike in minimum wage effective 1 Jul 2016). Cost management for the segment would be vital as consumers continue to economize in the near term. Meanwhile, FMCG should continue to be the main earnings driver on growing export sales. Our earnings forecasts, HOLD call and TP of MYR1.95 are unchanged. That OTB has dropped off the SC’s Shariah list could result in near term share price weakness.



FYE Mar (MYR m)
FY15A
FY16A
FY17E
FY18E
Revenue
397.7
393.4
422.0
459.2
EBITDA
82.9
84.7
91.5
95.8
Core net profit
51.0
55.3
57.6
61.2
Core EPS (sen)
11.2
11.9
12.4
13.2
Core EPS growth (%)
4.2
6.1
4.2
6.3
Net DPS (sen)
6.0
9.0
6.8
7.3
Core P/E (x)
18.0
16.9
16.2
15.3
P/BV (x)
2.7
2.6
2.4
2.3
Net dividend yield (%)
3.0
4.5
3.4
3.6
ROAE (%)
14.2
15.0
15.4
15.2
ROAA (%)
11.8
12.5
12.4
12.3
EV/EBITDA (x)
8.2
6.4
8.4
7.8
Net debt/equity (%)
net cash
net cash
net cash
net cash








MACRO RESEARCH






SAKP to be replaced by IJM?
by Chew Hann Wong


Strategy Research





SAKP may be replaced by IJM Corp in the upcoming FBM KLCI constituents review for December. This would result in slight declines in the individual weights of the other existing FBM KLCI constituent stocks. Then again, this is quite a similar situation as per the last FBM KLCI constituents review in June but SAKP stayed as a constituent stock then. There is no change to our stock calls - SAKP remains a BUY, IJM a HOLD.












34 additions, 30 deletions
by Desmond Ch'ng


Strategy Research





The Securities Commission’s (SC) revised Shariah compliant securities/ stocks list, released last evening, will take effect from today, 25 Nov. It includes 34 additions and 30 deletions. The number of Shariah compliant stocks now stands at 672 (73%), out of total 921 listed stocks (including REITs) on Bursa Securities.












Growth slowdown stabilised
by Suhaimi Ilias


Economics Research





Index of leading economic indicators fell -0.9% YoY in Sep 2016 from +0.1% YoY increase in Aug 2016. The YoY change in the index improved in Aug-Sep 2016 compared with sustained decline in Nov 2015 – July 2016, indicating growth slowdown stabilized in 2H 2016.












Switching to slower lane
by Suhaimi Ilias


Economics Research





Real GDP grew +1.1% YoY and shrank -2.0% QoQ SAAR in 3Q 2016 (2Q 2016: +2.0% YoY; +0.1% QoQ SAAR), better than preliminary release of +0.6% YoY and -4.1% QoQ SAAR. 2016 YTD growth was +1.7%. Revised our 2016 growth forecast to +1.5% from +1.8% previously, with 2017 growth now also expected at +1.5% vs +1.8% previously.







NEWS


Outside Malaysia:

E.U: ECB warned that the risk of an abrupt global market correction on the back of rising political uncertainty has intensified, posing a threat to banks, stability and economic growth. “More volatility in the near future is likely and the potential for an abrupt reversal remains significant,” the central bank said in its twice-yearly Financial Stability Review. “Elevated geopolitical tensions and heightened political uncertainty amid busy electoral calendars in major advanced economies have the potential to reignite global risk aversion and to trigger a major confidence shock.” ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio confirmed that the despite the risk build-up, the ECB still sees euro-area growth around 1.6% in 2017, with inflation rising to about 1.25% in the spring. (Source: Bloomberg)

Germany: Economic growth was supported by domestic demand last quarter as a slump in exports slowed the expansion to its weakest pace in a year. Government spending climbed 1% and private consumption rose 0.4% in the three months through September, while exports contracted 0.4%, the Federal Statistics Office said. Capital investment stagnated as spending on machinery fell. GDP rose by a seasonally-adjusted 0.2% in the three months through September. (Source: Bloomberg)

Germany: Business sentiment held at the highest level in more than two years in November, signaling that the recovery in Europe’s largest economy remains on track. The Munich-based Ifo institute’s business climate index stayed at 110.4, unchanged from a revised reading for October. The report adds to signs that Germany’s economy is gathering pace after a slowdown in the third quarter. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.K: Consumer credit surged more than 7% last month, the fastest in a decade, reinforcing the view that Brexit hasn’t shaken household confidence. British Bankers Association data shows that credit jumped an annual 7.2% in October, with personal loans and overdrafts up 7.8%. Credit-card lending increased the most in more than three years. (Source: Bloomberg)

Japan: CPI falls again, extending longest streak since 2011. Japan’s consumer prices fell for an eighth straight month -- the longest streak of declines since 2009-2011, underlining how distant the nation is from achieving its 2% inflation target. Consumer prices excluding fresh food, the Bank of Japan’s primary gauge of inflation, dropped 0.4% YoY in October (forecast -0.4% YoY.). Overall consumer prices rose 0.1% YoY while consumer prices excluding food and energy rose 0.2% YoY.





Other News:

Benalec: Benalec, Dutch firm team up for soil solutions venture. Benalec and CeTeau Malaysia S/B will form a joint-venture company to provide world-class soil improvement solutions using specialised geosynthetics engineering techniques. CeTeau, which is based in the Netherlands, specialises in soft soil improvement using prefabricated vertical drain. Benalec said it will hold a 51% equity stake of the JV company called Benalec CeTeau Asia S/B, while CeTeau holds the remaining 49%.Under the JV, it will provide an integrated marine construction solutions in the areas of land reclamation and coastal protection along with CeTeau’s specialist capabilities in the areas of advanced ground improvement technologies and specialised geosynthetic environmental techniques. (Source: The Sun Daily)

Palette Multimedia: Plans to diversify into traditional Chinese medicine. The group entered into a term sheet for the proposed acquisition of a 51% stake in Genopharma S/B (GSB) for MYR1.53m. The proposed acquisition will enable Palette to expand its earnings base and to invest in a profitable business. GSB is principally involved in the trading of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), food and herbal supplement. Currently, the products of GSB are being sold at TCM clinics, pharmacies and chain stores. In addition, GSB also supplies herbal based medicines and supplements to hospitals and clinics in Malaysia. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Kim Teck Cheong: Expects strong revenue growth in FY17. Sabah-based consumer packaged goods distributor Kim Teck Cheong Consolidated (KTC) said it expects a strong double-digit revenue growth for the financial year ending June 30, 2017 (FY17), with its newly secured distribution contracts from SCGM, Anakku S/B Marigold and Procter & Gamble (Malaysia) S/B. After the IPO (initial public offering), they have successfully built up their infrastructure. The group is in talks with a number of brand owners for the possible business avenues and to ensure that they continue to build their brand portfolio. (Source: The Star)


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