| | | | | 
| | | |
| | | |
| | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Share Price: | MYR5.29 | Target Price: | MYR7.85 | Recommendation: | Buy | | |
|
|
| | | Expect contained impact from fire incident | | A fire broke out at one of LCT's plants in Pasir Gudang on 20 Sep. It was put out within 10 minutes and there were no injuries nor fatalities. The impact is likely minor, in our view, as it involves an isolated production line and the major operations are unaffected. Assuming worst case scenario, product volume could be 3% lower than our base forecast and impact the earnings by a similar quantum. Risk-reward remains attractive despite this incident. Maintain our BUY call with a TP of MYR7.85. | | |
|
| | FYE Dec (MYR m) | FY15A | FY16A | FY17E | FY18E | Revenue | 8,147.8 | 8,136.6 | 8,003.8 | 10,523.6 | EBITDA | 1,548.0 | 2,193.0 | 1,769.6 | 2,468.4 | Core net profit | 625.9 | 1,396.5 | 1,193.5 | 1,555.9 | Core EPS (sen) | 36.2 | 80.8 | 52.5 | 68.5 | Core EPS growth (%) | nm | 123.1 | (35.0) | 30.4 | Net DPS (sen) | 5.9 | 6.9 | 17.4 | 22.6 | Core P/E (x) | 14.6 | 6.5 | 10.1 | 7.7 | P/BV (x) | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | Net dividend yield (%) | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | ROAE (%) | 11.3 | 18.6 | 11.8 | 11.9 | ROAA (%) | 9.4 | 16.7 | 10.3 | 10.7 | EV/EBITDA (x) | na | na | 4.9 | 4.1 | Net debt/equity (%) | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash |
| |
| | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Share Price: | MYR6.31 | Target Price: | MYR7.50 | Recommendation: | Buy | | |
|
|
| | | MUFG sells its stake | | BTMU's disposal of its 4.6% stake in CIMB at a discount to market price has caused some near term share price weakness, but fundamentals of the group remain intact, with the prospect of improving ROEs into 2018. CIMB is one of only two financial institutions in our portfolio that are expected to see improved ROEs into 2018 and this in itself, warrants a re-rating of the group. BUY maintained with TP of MYR7.50. | | |
|
| | FYE Dec (MYR m) | FY15A | FY16A | FY17E | FY18E | Operating income | 15,395.8 | 16,065.3 | 17,022.2 | 18,119.9 | Pre-provision profit | 6,146.8 | 7,413.6 | 8,155.8 | 8,984.3 | Core net profit | 3,411.2 | 3,414.4 | 4,440.2 | 5,151.8 | Core EPS (MYR) | 0.40 | 0.39 | 0.50 | 0.58 | Core EPS growth (%) | 5.6 | (2.4) | 27.4 | 16.0 | Net DPS (MYR) | 0.14 | 0.20 | 0.26 | 0.30 | Core P/E (x) | 15.7 | 16.1 | 12.6 | 10.9 | P/BV (x) | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | Net dividend yield (%) | 2.2 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 4.8 | Book value (MYR) | 4.87 | 5.24 | 5.37 | 5.65 | ROAE (%) | 8.7 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 10.6 | ROAA (%) | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| |
| | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Share Price: | MYR2.04 | Target Price: | MYR2.45 | Recommendation: | Buy | | |
|
|
| | | The worst is over; U/G to BUY | | We turn upbeat on BAuto as we believe that quarterly earnings have seen its worst in 1QFY17. Month-end's launch of the new Mazda CX-5 coupled with MYR's recent strength against JPY will put BAuto back onto a growth trajectory. We raise FY18-20 earnings forecasts by 4-10%, having tweaked sales mix assumption for more high-margin models, our JPY100/MYR assumption for FY19/20 to 3.80. We now peg BAuto back to its mean valuation of 14.5x CY18 PER, deriving a new MYR2.45 TP. BAuto is now a BUY. | | |
|
| | FYE Apr (MYR m) | FY16A | FY17A | FY18E | FY19E | Revenue | 2,095.4 | 1,660.0 | 2,023.8 | 2,284.0 | EBITDA | 267.2 | 166.5 | 231.9 | 315.7 | Core net profit | 201.4 | 118.8 | 157.4 | 216.3 | Core FDEPS (sen) | 17.3 | 10.2 | 13.5 | 18.6 | Core FDEPS growth(%) | (9.6) | (40.8) | 32.2 | 37.7 | Net DPS (sen) | 16.9 | 11.7 | 10.8 | 11.1 | Core FD P/E (x) | 11.8 | 20.0 | 15.1 | 11.0 | P/BV (x) | 4.5 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 4.2 | Net dividend yield (%) | 8.3 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.5 | ROAE (%) | 39.3 | 24.1 | 34.3 | 41.8 | ROAA (%) | 23.9 | 12.5 | 17.0 | 22.1 | EV/EBITDA (x) | 8.4 | 14.2 | 9.8 | 6.7 | Net debt/equity (%) | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash |
| |
| | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Share Price: | MYR2.32 | Target Price: | MYR3.05 | Recommendation: | Buy | | |
|
|
| | | Still placing our bet here | | 1QFY4/18 earnings were in-line but dividends marginally disappointed. More importantly, we hope that (i) the YoY decline in gaming revenue/ draw will come to an end thanks to recent crackdowns on illegal NFOs and (ii) legislation will be passed to cement these gains. Our EPS and DPS estimates are unchanged. Our DPS estimates translate into very attractive dividend yields of >7.8%. Even if the 1QFY18 DPS of 4sen were annualized, BST still offers very attractive dividend yields of >6.9%. | | |
|
| | FYE Apr (MYR m) | FY16A | FY17A | FY18E | FY19E | Revenue | 5,563.2 | 5,734.5 | 5,724.9 | 5,787.8 | EBITDA | 508.8 | 455.9 | 523.7 | 532.6 | Core net profit | 308.6 | 256.2 | 310.2 | 321.1 | Core EPS (sen) | 22.9 | 19.0 | 23.0 | 23.8 | Core EPS growth (%) | (10.3) | (17.0) | 21.1 | 3.5 | Net DPS (sen) | 19.0 | 14.0 | 18.0 | 18.6 | Core P/E (x) | 10.1 | 12.2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | P/BV (x) | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | Net dividend yield (%) | 8.2 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 8.0 | ROAE (%) | 42.5 | 31.4 | 38.5 | 36.7 | ROAA (%) | 12.6 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 13.6 | EV/EBITDA (x) | 8.8 | 9.4 | 6.9 | 6.6 | Net debt/equity (%) | 35.4 | 58.1 | 45.4 | 33.7 |
| |
| | | |
| | | | | SECTOR RESEARCH | | | | | | | Slow, but steady
by Ivan Yap |
|
|
|
| | | | | | Strong 36% MoM growth in July TIP translated to a 7% MoM rebound in Aug TIV to 51.7k units (-1% YoY), led by the non-national marques. The industry's fundamental continues to show improvement (i.e. TIV growth, higher auto loans approval, stronger MYR), albeit a gradual one, supporting auto stocks' earnings recovery. We remain POSITIVE on the sector with BUYs on BAuto, MBM and TCM (ranked in preference). | |
| |
| | | | |
| |
| | | | MACRO RESEARCH | | | | | | | Higher than expected
by Suhaimi Ilias |
|
|
|
| | | | | | Headline inflation rate in Aug 2017 rose to +3.7% YoY (Jul 2017: +3.2% YoY) while core inflation moderated to +2.4% YoY (Jul 2017: +2.6% YoY). For Jan-Aug 2017, headline inflation rate was +3.9% YoY (Jan-Aug 2016: +2.3% YoY) and core inflation rate was +2.5% YoY (Jan-Aug 2016: +2.7% YoY). Maintain our full-year 2017 inflation rate forecast at 3.5%-4.0% (2016: +2.1%) and view that there will be no change in OPR this year. | |
| |
| | | | |
| | | | | | | | FBMSCAP Index, Ready to Roll
by Nik Ihsan Raja Abdullah |
|
|
|
| | | | | | FBMKLCI declined for three consecutive days after losing 3.08pts to 1,773.58 yesterday, led by CIMB, PCHEM and MAXIS. Market breadth remained negative with losers outpacing gainers by 476 to 377. A total of 3.15b shares worth MYR2.38b changed hands. After the Federal Reserve outlined its plan to reduce its balance sheet, market could be choppy in the early going. However, bargain hunting activities should cushion any downside. | |
| |
| | | | |
| |
| | NEWS | | | Outside Malaysia:
U.S: Yellen brushes aside inflation 'Mystery' as Fed eyes rate hike. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen acknowledged that the fall in inflation this year was a bit of a "mystery" but suggested that the central bank was on course to raise interest rates again in 2017 nonetheless. She told reporters that the economy was robust enough to withstand further rate increases and an imminent reduction in the Fed's USD4.5t balance sheet, as it exits from a crisis-era policy a decade after the onset of the Great Recession. "We continue to expect that the ongoing strength of the economy will warrant gradual increases" in rates, she told a press conference after the Federal Open Market Committee announced that it will slowly begin to pare its bond holdings next month. As expected, the target range for the federal funds rate was held at 1% to 1.25%.(Source: Bloomberg)
U.S: Sales of previously owned U.S. homes declined to a one-year low in August as affordability continued to hamper demand and Hurricane Harvey caused a slump in Houston- area purchases, a National Association of Realtors report showed. Contract closings fell 1.7% MoM to a 5.35m annual rate (est.5.45m). Purchases in Houston decreased 25% YoY; excluding Harvey's effect, sales would have been "flat," according to NAR's chief Economist. Median sales price rose 5.6% YoY to USD253,500. Inventory of available properties decreased 6.5% YoY to 1.88m, marking the 27th consecutive year-on-year decline. (Source: Bloomberg)
U.K: May to test limits of money pledges to unlock Brexit talks. Prime Minister Theresa May is said to be weighing whether to accept for the first time the need to discuss the European Union's demand for a "Brexit bill" of tens of billions of pounds, in a move designed to kick-start stalled negotiations in Brussels. May will hold talks with her cabinet ministers before deciding how far she can go in promising money to the EU when she makes a landmark speech on Brexit in Florence, Italy, a person familiar with the matter said. Sticking points include differences over the financial settlement the EU wants the U.K. to pay and the rights of its citizens in post-Brexit Britain. The EU wants Britain to pledge to pay the so-called Brexit bill, which includes long-term liabilities for items such as the pensions of EU staff. (Source: Bloomberg)
N.Z: Economy grew at a faster pace in the second quarter, buoyed by increased consumption and manufacturing, a report showed two days before a general election. GDP gained 0.8% in the three months through June, matching economists' median forecast. Growth is recovering after two sluggish quarters, putting New Zealand on course for a ninth straight year of expansion just two days before voters go to the polls in the Sept. 23 election. While demand is being stoked by record-low interest rates and surging immigration, there are few signs that inflation pressures are building sufficiently for the Reserve Bank to change its forecast that borrowing costs will stay unchanged until 2019. (Source: Bloomberg) | |
| | | | | Other News:
Econpile: Bags MYR18m Pavillion Damansara Heights contract. Its wholly-owned unit Econpile S/B was awarded a MYR18m contract to undertake contiguous bored pile works by Jendela Mayang S/B for the Pavilion Damansara Heights Phase 2 mixed development project. The contract is for 27 weeks and expected to be completed in April 2018.(Source: The Edge Financial Daily)
PPB: Disposes of Myanmar packaging business for USD2.4m. The group is disposing of its entire equity interest in Tefel Packaging Industries Co Ltd in Myanmar for USD2.4m (MYR10.06m). PPB's 79.9%-owned indirect subsidiary Tego S/B inked an agreement to transfer its entire 100% stake in Tefel Packaging Industries Co Ltd — a polypropylene bags manufacturer — to Messrs Natthi Cholsaipant and Tanapat Cholsaipant. Tego's parent company is FFM Bhd, which is owned 80% by PBB and 20% by Wilmar International Ltd via PGEO Group S/B. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)
Hai-O Enterprise: Kick starts FY18 with 83% growth in net profit. The group announced an 83.35% growth in net profit for 1QFY4/18 from MYR9.74m to MYR17.87m, thanks to higher sales of its products and additional sales from newly recruited members. Quarterly revenue came in 58.32% higher at MYR124.54m, compared with MYR78.66m in the corresponding quarter in the preceding year, mainly attributable to higher contribution from its multi-level marketing and retail divisions. Overall, net margin improved by 2.1% as a result of higher sales of its premium products and improvement in operational efficiency. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily) | |
| |
| |
|
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.