Wednesday, April 6, 2016

[Maybank IB] Today's Research - Malaysia






Alliance Financial Group | A profitable niche
Desmond Ch'ng









break

break


COMPANY RESEARCH





Company Update





Alliance Financial Group (AFG MK)
by Desmond Ch'ng





Share Price:
MYR4.11
Target Price:
MYR4.60
Recommendation:
Buy




A profitable niche

We are trimming AFG’s FY16-FY17 earnings by 2-3% to account for higher NIM compression expectations amid stiff deposit competition. Nevertheless, the stock remains our top pick in the sector for its niche exposure to the profitable SME segment. Our valuations are rolled forward to CY17 on an unchanged PBV target of 1.3x and our TP is raised to MYR4.60 from MYR4.20 (10.8% ROE). Maintain BUY.



FYE Mar (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Operating income
1,349.0
1,383.0
1,428.6
1,483.7
Pre-provision profit
720.8
736.1
745.3
789.1
Core net profit
557.8
530.8
514.8
532.0
Core FDEPS (MYR)
0.37
0.35
0.34
0.35
Core FDEPS growth(%)
4.1
(5.3)
(3.0)
3.3
Net DPS (MYR)
0.29
0.15
0.16
0.17
Core FD P/E (x)
11.2
11.8
12.2
11.8
P/BV (x)
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
Net dividend yield (%)
7.2
3.7
3.9
4.0
Book value (MYR)
2.74
2.95
3.13
3.32
ROAE (%)
13.6
12.3
11.1
10.8
ROAA (%)
1.2
1.0
1.0
0.9








MACRO RESEARCH






Technical Research
by Lee Cheng Hooi


Fails to surpass 1,727 again





The FBMKLCI fell 7.16 points to close at 1,718.08 yesterday, while the FBMEMAS and FBM100 lost 31.25 and 33.11 points respectively. In terms of market breadth, the gainer-to-loser ratio was 367-to-450, while 376 counters were unchanged. A total of 1.71b shares were traded valued at MYR1.94b.







NEWS


Outside Malaysia:

U.S: Services pick up for first time in five months, indicating the economy was improving after a sluggish start to the year. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index, covering industries including construction, finance and retailing, rose to 54.5 from 53.4 in February, the Tempe, Arizona-based group’s data showed. Readings above 50 signal expansion. (Source: Bloomberg)

E.U: Economy grew slower than initially anticipated at the end of the first quarter, according to Markit Economics, which revised down a key index of activity. Markit said its composite Purchasing Managers Index rose to 53.1 in March from 53 in February. While that’s above the 50 level that divides expansion from contraction, it’s below the initial reading of 53.7 published March 22. (Source: Bloomberg)

Germany: Factory orders unexpectedly fell in February in a sign that a global trade slowdown is weighing on Europe’s largest economy. Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, dropped 1.2% from the prior month, when they rose a revised 0.5%, data from the Economy Ministry showed. Orders climbed 0.5% YoY. (Source: Bloomberg)

China: Forex losses jump 13-fold to USD 7.5b, with more ahead. The impact of August’s yuan devaluation has shown up in Chinese publicly traded companies’ annual results -- and investors are bracing for more pain. Some 980 listed Chinese companies reported combined foreign-exchange losses of CNY 48.7b (USD 7.5b) for last year, almost 13 times the amount in 2014, Bloomberg- compiled data show. Profits at those firms slumped 11% last year to CNY 789.2b. State-owned oil refiner China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., or Sinopec, reported CNY 3.9b in net FX losses, increasing from CNY 179m in 2014. The yuan’s 4.5% tumble last year, the largest since 1994, swelled financing costs for Chinese companies, the biggest dollar borrowers in Asia. More depreciation in January triggered a global stock rout and contributed to a 31% first- quarter drop in Chinese dollar bond sales. While the CNY has rallied against the U.S. dollar for two months, it is still weakening against a basket of currencies. (Source: Bloomberg)

India: Central bank lowered its key interest rate for the first time in six months and said it would look for more room to ease as it watches monsoon rains. Governor Raghuram Rajan cut the benchmark repurchase rate to 6.5% from 6.75%, the Reserve Bank of India said. “The stance of monetary policy will remain accommodative,” Rajan said in the statement. “The Reserve Bank will continue to watch macroeconomic and financial developments in the months ahead with a view to responding with further policy action as space opens up.” (Source: Bloomberg)





Other news:

Aviation: Sky-high DCA fees, airlines to pay up to 10 times present rate effective April 15. The increase in fees for everything from the usage of air space, air traffic facilities and other services to the air operator’s certificate (AOC) and the pilot’s flight license will see a big increase under a review of fees and charges made by the DCA after 40 years. Under the revised fee, the bigger the aircraft, the more the cost, and even the smaller jets, cargo planes and helicopters have not been spared. DCA said the new charges will help with rising expenses, upgrade and maintenance works and replacement of systems. (Source: The Star)

Plantation: Colombia cuts palm oil import tariff to 0%. To counter inflation, for a period of six months commencing on Feb 29, 2016 and ending on Aug 29, 2016, Colombia has authorized imports of palm oil at 0% from the previous 40%.This offers an opportunity for Malaysian palm oil and oleo-chemical manufacturers to make inroads into the market. According to Matrade, Colombian trade statistics show that imports of palm oil-related products in 2015 totaled USD129m (MYR501m). Malaysia’s exports are valued at USD0.9m and registered 0.71% of Colombia’s import market share. (Source: The Sun Daily)

MAHB: KAFS seeks MYR456m from MAHB for shortened concession. This is for the alleged losses and damages related to changes in the concession period under the Airport Facilities Agreement (AFA). AFA gave Kuala Lumpur Fueling System Sdn Bhd the rights and authority to operate and maintain the aircraft fueling system for a concession period of 50 years.. MAHB said its solicitors have the opinion that MAHB has a good arguable case against KAFS in the arbitration. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Mudajaya: Buys 74% stake in PT Harmoni Energi. PT Harmoni Energi, a subsidiary of PT ISI is a special purpose vehicle and has a power purchase agreement (PPA) with PT PLN (Persero) Wilayah Papua Dan Papua Barat for the development of a 2x7 MW coal-fired steam power plant on a build-operate-own basis in Manokwari, West Papua of Indonesia. The PPA is for 25 years from the commercial operation date. The financial close pursuant to the PPA is Oct 26, 2016. The proposed acquisition, if completed, is expected to contribute positively towards the earnings and net assets of the group in the future financial year, said Mudajaya. (Source: The Sun Daily)


No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.

Related Posts with Thumbnails