Thursday, May 31, 2018

FW: [Maybank IB] Today's Research - Malaysia

 

 

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FEATURED
CALLS

Malaysia | CIMB Group Holdings
1Q18 results below expectations
Desmond Ch'ng

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COMPANY
RESEARCH

Hong Leong Financial Group | No surprises in 3QFY18
Desmond Ch'ng

Hong Leong Bank | 9MFY18 results in-line
Desmond Ch'ng

BIMB Holdings | 1Q18 results above expectations
Desmond Ch'ng

Gamuda | When it rains, it pours
Adrian Wong

IJM Corporation | Another disappointing quarter
Adrian Wong

KPJ Healthcare | 1Q18: Within expectations
Adrian Wong

Barakah Offshore Petroleum | 1Q18: Above expectations
Thong Jung Liaw

Kimlun Bhd | 1Q18: Below expectations
Adrian Wong

TH Plantations | 1Q18: Missed estimates as CPO price near production cost
Chee Ting Ong

Media Chinese International | 4QFY3/18: Above expectations
Jade Tam

MMS Ventures | No surprises
Ivan Yap

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SECTOR
RESEARCH

Malaysia Oil & Gas | PETRONAS 1Q18 report card | POSITIVE
Thong Jung Liaw

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MACRO
RESEARCH

Malaysia | FBMKLCI Index: Major Support Violated
Nik Ihsan Raja Abdullah

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COMPANY RESEARCH

Malaysia

TP Revision

CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB MK)
by Desmond Ch'ng

Share Price:

MYR5.90

Target Price:

MYR6.50

Recommendation:

Hold

1Q18 results below expectations

1Q18 earnings were lacklustre as operating profit excluding one-offs declined 2% YoY. We lower our core profit forecasts by 2-4% for slower loan growth, higher NIM compression and a weaker Rupiah. We cut our TP to MYR6.50 (-MYR1.20), pegging on a lower CY19 PBV of 1.1x versus 1.4x previously (ROE: 10.0% vs 10.5% before). Its share price is nevertheless supported by a prospective yield of 4.6%. HOLD maintained.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Operating income

16,065.3

17,626.5

18,877.3

18,587.8

Pre-provision profit

7,413.6

8,492.9

9,533.9

9,023.6

Core net profit

3,414.4

4,355.2

4,810.7

5,273.4

Core FDEPS (MYR)

0.41

0.50

0.64

0.57

Core FDEPS growth(%)

22.0

21.0

28.5

(10.4)

Net DPS (MYR)

0.20

0.25

0.27

0.30

Core FD P/E (x)

14.4

11.9

9.3

10.3

P/BV (x)

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.0

Net dividend yield (%)

3.4

4.2

4.6

5.1

Book value (MYR)

5.24

5.37

5.62

5.89

ROAE (%)

7.9

9.3

9.6

10.0

ROAA (%)

0.7

0.9

0.9

1.0

Malaysia

Results Review

Hong Leong Financial Group (HLFG MK)
by Desmond Ch'ng

Share Price:

MYR18.50

Target Price:

MYR20.80

Recommendation:

Buy

No surprises in 3QFY18

HLFG's 3QFY18 results were within expectations. At current prices, HLFG's market cap of MYR21.2b is a 16% discount to its share of HL Bank's market cap i.e. MYR24.6b, yet again reinforcing our preference for HLFG (BUY). Our RNAV-TP of MYR20.80 is maintained.

FYE Jun (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Operating income

4,543.3

5,034.6

5,314.1

5,599.9

Pre-provision profit

2,258.9

2,812.3

3,014.7

3,212.6

Core net profit

1,489.5

1,608.8

1,818.5

1,921.7

Core EPS (MYR)

1.35

1.41

1.59

1.68

Core EPS growth (%)

(9.0)

4.2

13.0

5.7

Net DPS (MYR)

0.38

0.38

0.46

0.49

Core P/E (x)

13.7

13.2

11.6

11.0

P/BV (x)

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.2

Net dividend yield (%)

2.1

2.1

2.5

2.6

Book value (MYR)

13.37

14.47

14.38

15.57

ROAE (%)

10.5

10.1

11.0

11.2

ROAA (%)

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

Malaysia

Results Review

Hong Leong Bank (HLBK MK)
by Desmond Ch'ng

Share Price:

MYR18.60

Target Price:

MYR18.75

Recommendation:

Hold

9MFY18 results in-line

HL Bank's 3QFY18 results were within expectations. Our earnings forecasts are maintained, as is our TP of MYR18.75, which pegs on a CY19 PBV multiple of 1.5x (ROE: 10.9%). HOLD maintained and we prefer HLFG (HLFG MK; BUY; TP: MYR20.80) for indirect exposure instead.

FYE Jun (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Operating income

4,177.9

4,550.6

4,842.3

5,085.8

Pre-provision profit

2,263.1

2,543.1

2,767.9

2,941.6

Core net profit

2,075.4

2,145.0

2,575.6

2,713.6

Core EPS (MYR)

1.09

1.05

1.23

1.30

Core EPS growth (%)

(16.7)

(3.6)

17.7

5.4

Net DPS (MYR)

0.41

0.45

0.53

0.56

Core P/E (x)

17.1

17.7

15.1

14.3

P/BV (x)

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.6

Net dividend yield (%)

2.2

2.4

2.8

3.0

Book value (MYR)

9.74

10.47

11.14

11.85

ROAE (%)

11.0

9.8

11.0

10.9

ROAA (%)

1.1

1.1

1.3

1.3

Malaysia

TP Revision

BIMB Holdings (BIMB MK)
by Desmond Ch'ng

Share Price:

MYR3.86

Target Price:

MYR4.80

Recommendation:

Buy

1Q18 results above expectations

BIMB's 1Q18 results were above expectations but we are maintaining our earnings forecasts for now, in anticipation of higher expenses in the coming quarters. We maintain our BUY call but with a lower TP of MYR4.80 (-20sen) on pegging on a lower CY19 PBV of 1.4x (1.5x previously; FY19E ROE: 11.9%) to Bank Islam.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Operating income

2,440.0

2,531.7

2,720.6

2,878.4

Pre-provision profit

961.0

933.0

1,006.1

1,068.9

Core net profit

559.0

583.8

603.5

628.1

Core EPS (MYR)

0.36

0.36

0.36

0.37

Core EPS growth (%)

2.1

(1.4)

(0.3)

4.1

Net DPS (MYR)

0.13

0.14

0.16

0.16

Core P/E (x)

10.6

10.8

10.8

10.4

P/BV (x)

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.3

Net dividend yield (%)

3.4

3.6

4.1

4.2

Book value (MYR)

2.44

2.68

2.84

3.05

ROAE (%)

15.3

14.0

13.0

12.6

Malaysia

TP Revision

Gamuda (GAM MK)
by Adrian Wong

Share Price:

MYR3.18

Target Price:

MYR4.00

Recommendation:

Hold

When it rains, it pours

With both the KL-SG HSR and KVMRT 3 scrapped, Gamuda is unlikely to hit its MYR6b-8b of job wins for CY18. Other major infra projects such as the ECRL and Pan Borneo Sabah are also expected to be reviewed and we do not discount the possibility of them being delayed or cancelled. We stress our valuation estimates for Gamuda, deriving a new RNAV-TP of MYR4.00 (-14%). Despite upside to our new TP, Gamuda remains a HOLD given the still uncertain outlook for its toll concessions.

FYE Jul (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

2,121.9

3,211.4

4,164.5

4,320.6

EBITDA

548.5

831.2

883.9

990.4

Core net profit

626.1

700.6

832.1

887.6

Core EPS (sen)

26.0

28.8

34.3

36.5

Core EPS growth (%)

(10.2)

11.0

18.8

6.7

Net DPS (sen)

12.0

12.0

12.0

12.0

Core P/E (x)

12.2

11.0

9.3

8.7

P/BV (x)

1.1

1.0

1.0

0.9

Net dividend yield (%)

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.8

ROAE (%)

9.5

8.4

10.8

10.7

ROAA (%)

4.6

4.7

5.1

5.2

EV/EBITDA (x)

29.0

21.5

15.0

12.7

Net debt/equity (%)

55.2

59.8

60.7

48.2

Malaysia

Rating Change

IJM Corporation (IJM MK)
by Adrian Wong

Share Price:

MYR1.84

Target Price:

MYR2.10

Recommendation:

Hold

Another disappointing quarter

FY18 earnings came in below ours/consensus expectations largely due to the weaker-than-expected contribution from the property and industries segments and losses from its associates and JVs in 4QFY18. We cut our FY19E/FY20E earnings by 24%/25% after adjusting for i) construction works progress, ii) lower PBT margins from industries and property, and iii) higher operating cost at plantations. Our RNAV-based TP is lowered to MYR2.10. IJM is now a HOLD.

FYE Mar (MYR m)

FY17A

FY18A

FY19E

FY20E

Revenue

6,065.3

6,026.9

7,102.0

7,524.1

EBITDA

1,390.8

1,139.7

1,109.0

1,175.5

Core net profit

505.1

378.7

480.6

512.3

Core EPS (sen)

14.0

10.4

13.2

14.1

Core EPS growth (%)

(2.0)

(25.3)

26.9

6.6

Net DPS (sen)

7.5

6.0

7.0

7.0

Core P/E (x)

13.2

17.6

13.9

13.0

P/BV (x)

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

Net dividend yield (%)

4.1

3.3

3.8

3.8

ROAE (%)

7.1

3.7

5.0

5.2

ROAA (%)

2.5

1.8

2.3

2.4

EV/EBITDA (x)

12.5

13.5

11.8

11.0

Net debt/equity (%)

35.3

41.0

45.9

42.5

Malaysia

Results Review

KPJ Healthcare (KPJ MK)
by Adrian Wong

Share Price:

MYR0.94

Target Price:

MYR1.08

Recommendation:

Hold

1Q18: Within expectations

1Q18 results were within ours/consensus expectations. YoY earnings growth was supported by the Malaysian operations which saw both inpatient and outpatient figures improve YoY. However, Indonesia continues to make small losses. Start-up costs from the new Perlis and Bandar Dato Onn (BDO) hospitals, which are expected to be opened by 2Q18 and 3Q18 respectively, could potentially dampen earnings. Our earnings estimates and RNAV-based TP of MYR1.08 remain unchanged.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

3,021.1

3,180.0

3,463.5

3,731.7

EBITDA

351.6

391.1

443.4

461.7

Core net profit

125.4

161.9

163.2

170.3

Core EPS (sen)

2.9

3.7

3.8

4.0

Core EPS growth (%)

(17.4)

28.5

3.1

4.4

Net DPS (sen)

1.2

1.8

1.9

2.0

Core P/E (x)

32.7

25.4

24.7

23.6

P/BV (x)

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.1

Net dividend yield (%)

1.3

1.9

2.0

2.1

ROAE (%)

9.8

10.0

9.2

9.2

ROAA (%)

3.2

4.1

3.8

3.6

EV/EBITDA (x)

16.7

14.6

12.3

11.9

Net debt/equity (%)

72.2

76.7

69.4

68.7

Malaysia

Rating Change

Barakah Offshore Petroleum (BARAKAH MK)
by Thong Jung Liaw

Share Price:

MYR0.10

Target Price:

MYR0.09

Recommendation:

Hold

1Q18: Above expectations

1Q18 results were better than expected, prompting an improved FY18 earnings estimate. That said, Barakah has 3 key matters to address this FY: (i) improve replenishment, (ii) find a strategic solution to its KL101 vessel and (iii) do a cashcall to improve its balance sheet/cashflow. That said, the 67% fall in its share price YTD has absorbed most of the negatives and substantially narrowed the premium to our unchanged TP, which is based on 1x EV/ replacement value.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

622.6

310.9

305.0

471.8

EBITDA

58.9

(173.9)

(57.4)

50.9

Core net profit

10.0

(161.9)

(98.2)

2.8

Core EPS (sen)

1.2

(18.8)

(11.4)

0.3

Core EPS growth (%)

(21.8)

nm

nm

nm

Net DPS (sen)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Core P/E (x)

8.2

nm

nm

29.8

P/BV (x)

0.2

0.4

0.7

0.7

Net dividend yield (%)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

ROAE (%)

3.5

(69.1)

(63.7)

2.6

ROAA (%)

1.3

(23.5)

(18.0)

0.5

EV/EBITDA (x)

12.4

nm

nm

5.4

Net debt/equity (%)

35.9

45.1

208.9

179.9

Malaysia

TP Revision

Kimlun Bhd (KICB MK)
by Adrian Wong

Share Price:

MYR1.72

Target Price:

MYR1.70

Recommendation:

Hold

1Q18: Below expectations

1Q18 core earnings came in below ours/consensus expectations due to the weaker-than-expected contribution from its manufacturing division. This was attributed to the lack of delivery of precast supplies to one its KVMRT 2 clients as a result of a stop work order at one of the packages. We cut our FY18E-FY20E earnings by 5%-10% after imputing for lower EBIT margins for the manufacturing division. Our TP is lowered to MYR1.70 (-11%) pegged to unchanged 7x FY18 PER (-0.5 SD).

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

940.7

985.2

1,286.2

1,289.2

EBITDA

130.9

121.8

124.4

133.8

Core net profit

80.7

80.1

74.4

80.8

Core EPS (sen)

26.4

26.2

24.3

26.4

Core EPS growth (%)

23.0

(0.7)

(7.2)

8.6

Net DPS (sen)

6.5

5.5

6.6

7.1

Core P/E (x)

6.5

6.6

7.1

6.5

P/BV (x)

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

Net dividend yield (%)

3.8

3.2

3.8

4.1

ROAE (%)

na

na

na

na

ROAA (%)

8.2

7.4

5.9

5.9

EV/EBITDA (x)

5.1

5.9

4.6

4.1

Net debt/equity (%)

6.7

7.1

7.1

3.7

Malaysia

TP Revision

TH Plantations (THP MK)
by Chee Ting Ong

Share Price:

MYR0.63

Target Price:

MYR0.89

Recommendation:

Hold

1Q18: Missed estimates as CPO price near production cost

THP's 1Q18 earnings fell short due to poor CPO prices and seasonal slow start to production. However, earnings should improve in 2H18 on seasonally stronger production. We are keeping our earnings forecasts for now. Despite upside to our revised TP of MYR0.89 on 0.6x trailing P/NTA or -2SD of 5-year mean (previously MYR1.22 on 0.8x trailing P/NTA or -1SD to 3-year mean), the stock lacks re-rating catalyst and hence our HOLD call is unchanged.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

562.3

689.2

603.9

605.6

EBITDA

175.9

188.8

204.2

211.1

Core net profit

46.1

20.7

50.1

56.8

Core EPS (sen)

5.2

2.3

5.7

6.4

Core EPS growth (%)

247.2

(55.0)

141.5

13.4

Net DPS (sen)

6.0

3.6

1.7

1.9

Core P/E (x)

12.0

26.6

11.0

9.7

P/BV (x)

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

Net dividend yield (%)

9.6

5.8

2.7

3.1

ROAE (%)

11.0

0.8

3.6

4.0

ROAA (%)

1.3

0.6

1.4

1.6

EV/EBITDA (x)

13.9

13.3

9.9

9.3

Net debt/equity (%)

63.6

65.9

62.9

58.6

Malaysia

Rating Change

Media Chinese International (MCIL MK)
by Jade Tam

Share Price:

MYR0.29

Target Price:

MYR0.33

Recommendation:

Hold

4QFY3/18: Above expectations

4QFY3/18 core net profit of MYR15.9m beat our expectations due to lower-than-expected newsprint consumption, we estimate. Given MCIL's 27% fall in share price YTD, we believe MCIL's negative outlook has been priced in. Hence, we upgrade MCIL to HOLD (from SELL) with an unchanged TP of MYR0.33 (based on 12x CY18 PER, mean). Maintain earnings estimates for now pending a briefing today.

FYE Mar (MYR m)

FY17A

FY18A

FY19E

FY20E

Revenue

1,338.3

1,100.8

1,138.9

1,158.3

EBITDA

154.2

104.9

109.0

118.6

Core net profit

83.0

48.7

47.8

57.5

Core EPS (sen)

4.9

2.9

2.8

3.4

Core EPS growth (%)

(25.7)

(41.3)

(1.9)

20.5

Net DPS (sen)

3.2

1.7

2.0

2.4

Core P/E (x)

5.9

10.1

10.2

8.5

P/BV (x)

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Net dividend yield (%)

11.0

5.7

6.8

8.2

ROAE (%)

7.9

(5.5)

6.1

7.1

ROAA (%)

5.6

3.7

4.1

5.3

EV/EBITDA (x)

6.1

4.1

2.0

1.4

Net debt/equity (%)

net cash

net cash

net cash

net cash

Malaysia

Results Review

MMS Ventures (MMSV MK)
by Ivan Yap

Share Price:

MYR1.35

Target Price:

MYR2.02

Recommendation:

Buy

No surprises

Despite 1Q18 core net profit easing by 1% YoY, we keep our FY18 net profit forecast (-16% YoY) as we expect slower quarters ahead, due to a softer equipment replacement cycle YoY. Against local automation equipment peers' average 18.9x CY19 PER, MMSV's valuation at just 9.0x CY19 PER (7.7x CY19 PER ex-cash) is attractive for a tech name with a strong global clientele. Our unchanged MYR2.02 TP is based on 13.5x CY19 PER (+1SD to 5-year mean of 9.4x). Maintain BUY.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

35.6

75.6

65.7

86.5

EBITDA

9.8

21.1

17.7

23.5

Core net profit

9.5

21.1

17.9

24.1

Core EPS (sen)

5.9

13.1

11.1

15.0

Core EPS growth (%)

12.7

122.3

(15.0)

34.6

Net DPS (sen)

2.0

2.0

4.0

3.3

Core P/E (x)

22.9

10.3

12.1

9.0

P/BV (x)

5.3

3.7

3.1

2.5

Net dividend yield (%)

1.5

1.5

3.0

2.5

ROAE (%)

24.8

42.3

27.8

30.5

ROAA (%)

20.9

35.0

23.3

26.1

EV/EBITDA (x)

6.5

11.7

9.5

6.7

Net debt/equity (%)

net cash

net cash

net cash

net cash

SECTOR RESEARCH

MY: Malaysia Oil & Gas

PETRONAS 1Q18 report card | POSITIVE
by Thong Jung Liaw

Sector Note

PETRONAS' 1Q18 results diverged from those of its global peers in that it reported flat YoY earnings, while the latter reported growth. That said, we expect stronger quarters ahead, on higher crude oil price and rising activities for PETRONAS. RAPID's PIC is at 89% completion and scheduled delivery is key. Our key BUYs are Yinson, Bumi Armada and Dialog. Our TP for Yinson has yet to include the prospective new FPSO wins, while for Dialog has yet to reflect optimal Pengerang potential.

MACRO RESEARCH

MY: Traders' Almanac

FBMKLCI Index: Major Support Violated
by Nik Ihsan Raja Abdullah

Technical Research

Dark cloud loomed over local bourses as FBMKLCI sank 56.56pts to 1,719.28 yesterday. Italy's political crisis as well as negative news flow surrounding construction stocks after the government decided to scrap KL-SG HSR and MRT3 projects triggered the selloff. Sentiment was extremely bearish with losers outpacing gainers by 995 to 148. Although the rebound in Wall Street overnight could lend some support to the local market, investors will likely take a more cautious stance.

NEWS

Outside Malaysia:

U.S: Fed says economy grew 'moderately' amid strong manufacturing. The U.S. economy expanded moderately through much of April and May, a subtle upgrade from previous periods, with little indication of overheating, a Federal Reserve survey showed. The central bank's Beige Book economic report, based on anecdotal information collected by the 12 regional Fed banks through May 21, said manufacturing showed "strong" gains, while employment and prices continued to rise "modestly" or "moderately." "Manufacturing shifted into higher gear with more than half of the districts reporting a pickup in industrial activity and a third of the districts classifying activity as 'strong,'". (Source: Bloomberg)

E.U: Euro-area confidence extended its slide in May as cooling economic growth in the region was met with budding political uncertainties. The European Commission's index of sentiment slipped to 112.5 from 112.7, taking the gauge to its lowest in nine months. While the decline was less than economists had forecast, it's the fifth straight drop after optimism reached a 17-year high in December. In Germany, the region's largest economy, the confidence gauge stabilized, while it declined in France, Spain and Italy. The euro area's business climate index improved for the first time in four months. (Source: Bloomberg)

China: Slams Trump's 'flip-flop' on tariffs as trade spat worsens. China hit back at U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to push ahead with tariffs on USD50b of Chinese imports despite a recent truce in the trade fight, saying it damages America's standing. If the U.S. insists on unilateral measures, China will respond accordingly, foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told reporters in Beijing. Earlier, the Wall Street Journal reported that the trade talks between the two countries scheduled for June 2 in Beijing may be derailed by the fresh threat from Washington. (Source: Bloomberg)

Japan: Industrial production rises less than expected in April, adding to concerns about the strength of any rebound in economic growth after a contraction in the first quarter. Industrial production rose 0.3% MoM in April from March, when it gained 1.4% MoM. Year-on-year output grew 2.5% YoY, compared with a 2.4% YoY rise in March. (Source: Bloomberg)

Indonesia: Bank Indonesia's new governor stamps his mark with rate hike. Indonesia's new central bank chief raised interest rates at an early policy meeting, moving swiftly to counter an emerging-market selloff that's shaken the nation's currency and bonds. Less than a week in office, Governor Perry Warjiyo led the board in increasing the seven-day reverse repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%. (Source: Bloomberg)

Other News:

LBS Bina: LBS Bina, NWP terminate deal for joint development in China. Property developer LBS Bina Group Bhd and timber products manufacturer NWP Holdings Bhd have decided to mutually terminate an agreement for a joint development project to transform the Zhuhai International Circuit in China, in which LBS has a 60% stake. Both parties have agreed to revoke the Heads of Agreement signed on March 5, LBS Bina said in a filing with the stock exchange today. Both parties had signed the HOA to jointly develop 264 acres on land in Gaoxin district, Zhuhai in Guangdong, China. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Ahmad Zaki: 1Q net profit up 49%. Net profit rose 49.3% to MYR9.13m in the first quarter ended March 31, 2018 (1QFY18) from MYR6.12m a year ago, mainly due to higher income contribution from the concession and property divisions coupled with lower losses from the plantation and oil and gas (O&G) divisions. On prospects, AZRB said recently, construction stocks faced knee-jerk sell down post-14th general election (GE14) and the sector outlook has been downgraded with uncertainties on the infrastructure project with foreign participation, tender, procurement and job awards moving forward. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

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