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Share
Price:
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MYR4.30
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Target
Price:
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MYR4.60
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Recommendation:
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Hold
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A defensive
remedy
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The overall secular growth trends in healthcare will
likely remain intact in 2016, thus a de-rating of the sector is
unlikely from our standpoint. We view KPJ as being fairly valued
following its 16% share price appreciation in FY15. While KPJ presently
trades at a discount to its Asian peers on a PER basis, this is
justified given its more moderate earnings growth profile and higher
net gearing level. Initiate coverage with a HOLD rating and SOTP-based
TP of MYR4.60.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
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FY14A
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FY15A
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FY16E
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FY17E
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Revenue
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2,639.1
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2,818.5
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3,119.6
|
3,499.5
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EBITDA
|
297.9
|
350.9
|
381.4
|
428.9
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Core net profit
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125.1
|
144.6
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149.1
|
167.4
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Core EPS (sen)
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12.3
|
13.9
|
14.4
|
16.1
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Core EPS growth (%)
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20.5
|
13.3
|
3.1
|
12.2
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Net DPS (sen)
|
7.5
|
5.3
|
7.2
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8.1
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Core P/E (x)
|
35.0
|
30.8
|
29.9
|
26.7
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P/BV (x)
|
3.5
|
3.1
|
2.9
|
2.8
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Net dividend yield (%)
|
1.7
|
1.2
|
1.7
|
1.9
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ROAE (%)
|
10.7
|
10.7
|
10.0
|
10.7
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ROAA (%)
|
4.1
|
4.0
|
3.7
|
4.0
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EV/EBITDA (x)
|
16.1
|
16.0
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15.1
|
13.6
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Net debt/equity (%)
|
75.1
|
77.5
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77.4
|
76.9
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Share
Price:
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MYR1.50
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Target
Price:
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MYR1.33
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Recommendation:
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Sell
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Aborts
acquisition in China
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We are Neutral on FGV’s decision to abort the acquisition
of Zhong Ling Nutril-Oil Holdings (ZL). The new CEO may have fresh
plans for FGV and hence this termination does not surprise us. Still,
he faces the uphill task of restructuring the group due to its high
cost base with an estimated all in cost of production of MYR2,237/t in
2015, and a high net gearing (including LLA liability) of 86% at 31 Dec
2015. We maintain our SELL call and MYR1.30 TP on 16x 2016 PER.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
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FY14A
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FY15A
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FY16E
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FY17E
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Revenue
|
16,434.3
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15,669.7
|
15,737.5
|
16,369.9
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EBITDA
|
1,293.9
|
957.4
|
990.7
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1,194.2
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Core net profit
|
95.7
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(171.8)
|
141.4
|
252.2
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Core EPS (sen)
|
2.6
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(4.7)
|
3.9
|
6.9
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Core EPS growth (%)
|
545.6
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nm
|
nm
|
78.3
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Net DPS (sen)
|
10.0
|
4.0
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2.3
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4.1
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Core P/E (x)
|
57.2
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(31.9)
|
38.7
|
21.7
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P/BV (x)
|
0.9
|
0.8
|
0.8
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0.8
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Net dividend yield (%)
|
6.7
|
2.7
|
1.6
|
2.8
|
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ROAE (%)
|
1.5
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(2.7)
|
2.2
|
3.8
|
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ROAA (%)
|
0.5
|
(0.8)
|
0.7
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1.2
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EV/EBITDA (x)
|
9.0
|
12.4
|
11.5
|
9.8
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Net debt/equity (%)
|
18.8
|
47.8
|
50.2
|
53.2
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MACRO RESEARCH
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Technical Research
by Lee
Cheng Hooi
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Overbought
markets may fall
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The FBM KLCI inched up 7.85 points WoW to close at
1,718.40, as some minor blue chip nibbling last Thursday lifted the
local index. The weekly volume fell from 1.71b to 1.44b shares.
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NEWS
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Outside Malaysia:
Canada: Employment surge in March takes rate cut off
table. Canadian employment rose faster than forecast in March on
full-time work and a revival in oil- producing Alberta, a big step in
erasing the chance the central bank will cut interest rates. Employment
increased by 40,600 after falling 2,300 in February, Statistics Canada
said. The jobless rate declined to 7.1% from 7.3%, the highest since
March 2013. The job gain is another sign of stability before the Bank of
Canada’s April 13 interest-rate decision, following heavy damage from low
crude oil prices last year. (Source: Bloomberg)
Brazil: Consumer inflation slows more than forecast in
March as the impact of government-regulated price increases faded and a
prolonged recession crippled Latin America’s largest economy. The
benchmark IPCA consumer price index rose 0.43% from the previous month,
following a 0.9% jump in February. Twelve-month inflation slowed to
single-digits, reaching 9.39% YoY. (Source: Bloomberg)
Crude Oil: Extends gains as U.S. rigs idled before Doha
freeze talks. Oil extended gains after its biggest jump in almost two
months on Friday as U.S. drillers idled more rigs ahead of talks between
the world’s biggest suppliers about freezing output. Futures rose as much
as 1.9% in New York after increasing 6.6% Friday, the biggest rise since
Feb. 12. The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. dropped for the 15th
time in 16 weeks to the lowest level since 2009, Baker Hughes Inc. said
on its website. Venezuela said the first step in the April 17 meeting in
Doha between producers including Saudi Arabia and Russia should be to
freeze output levels. (Source: Bloomberg)
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Other news:
Sona Petroleum: Going all out to get shareholders’ nod for
QA buy. The QA it is trying to get shareholders to approve is the Stag
oilfield assets in Western Australia. It proposes to acquire a 100% stake
in Stag from Quadrant Northwest Pty Ldt and Santons Offshore Pty Ltd for
USD25m (MYR98m). As a recap, Sona has until July 30 this year to complete
its QA. It was lited on July 30, 2013. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)
Engtex: Resilient demand from infra jobs heralds better
FY16. Steel and ductile iron piping supplier cum distributor, which has
seen its earnings sliding for past two financial years, expects to see
better results in FY16, as it expects resilient demand from the
infrastructure market to lift its earnings. Engtex said new orders come
in every month and it has managed to replenish its order book monthly,
and maintain its tally at around MYR95m. (Source: The Edge Financial
Daily)
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