[Maybank Kim Eng] Today's Research - Malaysia

19 Aug 2015, Wednesday

g Company Research - Alliance Financial Group: Shortfall in 1QFY16 | Desmond Ch'ng - Padini: Earnings surprise in 4Q | Kevin Wong - Star Media Group Bhd: Surprises on DPS, but sustainable? | Samuel Yin Shao Yang - Magnum Berhad: GST begins to bite | Samuel Yin Shao Yang g Macro Research - Malaysia: Technicals - A miniscule rebound move only | Lee Cheng Hooi - Malaysia: Other News - | Malaysia Research Team

MY: Alliance Financial Group (AFG MK) Share Price: MYR3.66 Target Price: MYR4.00 Recommendation: Hold Desmond Ch'ng (603) 2297 8680 desmond.chng@maybank-ib.com Results Review: Shortfall in 1QFY16 FYE Mar (MYR m) FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E Operating income 1,349.0 1,383.0 1,437.2 1,504.3 Pre-provision profit 720.8 736.1 770.8 809.7 Core net profit 557.8 530.8 532.3 550.7 Core FDEPS (MYR) 0.37 0.35 0.35 0.36 Core FDEPS growth(%) 4.1 (5.3) 0.3 3.5 Net DPS (MYR) 0.29 0.15 0.16 0.16 Core FD P/E (x) 10.0 10.5 10.5 10.1 P/BV (x) 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Net dividend yield (%) 8.1 4.2 4.2 4.4 Book value (MYR) 2.74 2.95 3.14 3.34 ROAE (%) 13.6 12.3 11.5 11.2 ROAA (%) 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 §  1QFY16 net profit below expectations at 21% of our full-year forecast and consensus. §  FY16/17/18 net profit forecasts lowered by 8/11/13% on higher credit cost and lower NOII assumptions. §  TP rolled forward to CY16 and lowered to MYR4.00 (from MYR4.70). HOLD maintained. MY: Padini (PAD MK) Share Price: MYR1.35 Target Price: MYR1.35 Recommendation: Hold Kevin Wong (603) 2082 6824 kevin.wong@maybank-ib.com Results Review: Earnings surprise in 4Q FYE Jun (MYR m) FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E Revenue 866.3 977.9 1,029.0 1,119.5 EBITDA 147.6 142.5 152.0 174.6 Core net profit 90.9 80.2 89.8 103.3 Core EPS (sen) 13.8 12.2 13.7 15.7 Core EPS growth (%) 6.5 (11.8) 12.0 15.0 Net DPS (sen) 11.5 10.0 10.0 10.0 Core P/E (x) 9.8 11.1 9.9 8.6 P/BV (x) 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 Net dividend yield (%) 8.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 ROAE (%) 23.9 20.2 21.4 22.8 ROAA (%) 16.8 13.7 14.5 15.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.0 4.7 4.4 3.8 Net debt/equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash §  4QFY15 net profit of MYR18m (+33% YoY) was above expectation; declared an interim net DPS of 2.5sen. §  Maintain earnings forecasts, and FY16-17 net DPS forecasts at 10sen p.a.; yield attractive at 7.4%. §  Maintain HOLD with an unchanged MYR1.35 TP. MY: Star Media Group Bhd (STAR MK) Share Price: MYR2.41 Target Price: MYR2.50 Recommendation: Hold Samuel Yin Shao Yang (603) 2297 8916 samuel.y@maybank-ib.com Jade Tam (603) 2297 8687 jade.tam@maybank-ib.com Results Review: Surprises on DPS, but sustainable? FYE Dec (MYR m) FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E Revenue 1,025.3 1,013.7 967.4 984.2 EBITDA 243.9 242.3 207.5 210.9 Core net profit 144.5 151.5 125.7 133.0 Core EPS (sen) 19.6 20.5 17.0 18.0 Core EPS growth (%) (1.5) 4.8 (17.0) 5.8 Net DPS (sen) 15.0 18.0 15.0 16.0 Core P/E (x) 12.3 11.7 14.2 13.4 P/BV (x) 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 Net dividend yield (%) 6.2 7.5 6.2 6.6 ROAE (%) 12.6 13.1 10.9 11.4 ROAA (%) 8.5 9.0 7.7 8.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.8 5.7 6.8 6.6 Net debt/equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash §  6M15 earnings in line, dividends positively surprised at 9sen. §  That said, note that the 6M15 DPR was 109%. This cannot continue indefinitely. §  Jul and Aug 2015 broad adex seem very weak. Maintain HOLD and MYR2.50 SOP-based TP. MY: Magnum Berhad (MAG MK) Share Price: MYR2.56 Target Price: MYR2.75 Recommendation: Hold Samuel Yin Shao Yang (603) 2297 8916 samuel.y@maybank-ib.com Results Review: GST begins to bite FYE Dec (MYR m) FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E Revenue 2,991.3 2,886.5 2,828.8 2,885.4 EBITDA 451.4 416.1 401.2 399.9 Core net profit 326.4 254.8 260.3 262.2 Core EPS (sen) 22.9 17.9 18.3 18.4 Core EPS growth (%) 40.5 (21.9) 2.3 0.7 Net DPS (sen) 18.8 20.0 15.0 15.0 Core P/E (x) 11.2 14.3 14.0 13.9 P/BV (x) 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 Net dividend yield (%) 7.3 7.8 5.9 5.9 ROAE (%) 11.1 10.4 10.6 10.4 ROAA (%) 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 11.4 10.7 10.4 10.3 Net debt/equity (%) 23.7 21.6 19.4 16.8 §  2Q15 results were in-line as they were weaker YoY and QoQ. §  Near term challenging with GST impact still being felt. §  Maintain HOLD and MYR2.75 DCF-based TP. MY: Technicals Lee Cheng Hooi (603) 2297 8694 chenghooi.lee@maybank-ib.com Technical Research: A miniscule rebound move only §  IJM - On a very strong downward Wave 3 and 5 move. §  FBMKLCI – A miniscule rebound move only. §  Supports of 1,562 and 1,578 may be areas to nibble. §  Resistances of 1,584 and 1,606 will cap rebounds. MY: Other News Malaysia Research Team Economics Research: Outside Malaysia —    U.S: New-home construction climbed in July to the highest level in almost eight years —    U.K: Inflation rate unexpectedly rose in July —    China: The People’s Bank of China tripled the amount of cash added to the financial system in its open-market operations —    China: Home prices rise in more cities as housing rebounds. Other News —    Auto: Sales down 2.69% in July —    AirAsia: Sees USD160m in fuel-cost savings —    Wah Seong: Bags MYR189m deal —    Bina Puri: Clinches MYR100m contract to build hotel in Kenyir Lake