MY: Hong Leong Bank (HLBK MK)
Share
Price: MYR12.92
Target Price: MYR15.20
Recommendation: Buy
|
|
Desmond
Ch'ng
(603) 2297 8680
desmond.chng@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
FYE Jun (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
Operating income
|
4,039.1
|
4,066.9
|
4,333.2
|
4,527.8
|
Pre-provision
profit
|
2,246.8
|
2,253.1
|
2,466.6
|
2,600.2
|
Core net profit
|
2,102.3
|
2,233.2
|
2,291.0
|
2,370.8
|
Core EPS (MYR)
|
1.19
|
1.26
|
1.27
|
1.32
|
Core EPS growth
(%)
|
12.8
|
5.9
|
0.8
|
3.5
|
Net DPS (MYR)
|
0.41
|
0.41
|
0.42
|
0.43
|
Core P/E (x)
|
10.8
|
10.2
|
10.1
|
9.8
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.7
|
1.4
|
1.4
|
1.3
|
Net dividend yield
(%)
|
3.2
|
3.2
|
3.3
|
3.4
|
Book value (MYR)
|
7.73
|
8.93
|
9.48
|
10.06
|
ROAE (%)
|
15.3
|
14.3
|
13.2
|
12.9
|
ROAA (%)
|
1.3
|
1.3
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
|
§ 4QFY15 surprises positively, mainly on
lower tax rate.
§ We expect the upcoming rights issue to
dilute FY16 ROE to 11.7% from 13.2%, but have factored this in.
§ Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of
MYR15.20, pegged to 1.5x proforma CY15 post-rights BVPS.
|
MY: Hong Leong Financial Group
(HLFG MK)
Share Price: MYR13.22
Target Price: MYR16.90
Recommendation: Buy
|
|
Desmond Ch'ng
(603) 2297 8680
desmond.chng@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
FYE Jun (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
Operating income
|
4,549.2
|
4,490.9
|
4,757.5
|
4,969.6
|
Pre-provision
profit
|
2,583.1
|
2,490.7
|
2,676.5
|
2,795.5
|
Core net profit
|
1,706.9
|
1,620.7
|
1,696.0
|
1,730.2
|
Core FDEPS (MYR)
|
1.63
|
1.55
|
1.62
|
1.66
|
Core FDEPS
growth(%)
|
14.7
|
(5.0)
|
4.6
|
2.0
|
Net DPS (MYR)
|
0.38
|
0.38
|
0.37
|
0.38
|
Core FD P/E (x)
|
8.1
|
8.5
|
8.1
|
8.0
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.2
|
1.1
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
Net dividend yield
(%)
|
2.9
|
2.9
|
2.8
|
2.9
|
Book value (MYR)
|
10.90
|
12.45
|
12.82
|
14.08
|
ROAE (%)
|
15.8
|
13.2
|
12.7
|
12.2
|
ROAA (%)
|
0.9
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
|
§ 4QFY15 results above expectations mainly
due to better-than-expected results from HL Bank.
§ HLFG’s current market cap of MYR13.9b
compares against MYR15b for its 64% stake in HL Bank – investors get
insurance division for free.
§ BUY with a lower RNAV-TP of MYR16.90
(MYR17.60 before).
|
MY: Sime Darby
(SIME MK)
Share Price: MYR7.45
Target Price: MYR8.87
Recommendation: Hold
|
|
Chee Ting Ong
(603) 2297 8678
ct.ong@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
FYE Jun (MYR m)
|
FY13A
|
FY14A
|
FY15E
|
FY16E
|
Revenue
|
46,109.0
|
43,908.0
|
43,729.0
|
47,599.3
|
EBITDA
|
5,783.1
|
5,376.6
|
4,658.5
|
5,461.3
|
Core net profit
|
3,230.1
|
3,089.3
|
2,313.8
|
2,665.7
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
53.8
|
50.9
|
37.3
|
42.9
|
Core EPS growth
(%)
|
(23.0)
|
(5.2)
|
(26.9)
|
15.2
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
34.0
|
36.0
|
25.0
|
28.8
|
Core P/E (x)
|
13.9
|
14.6
|
20.0
|
17.4
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.7
|
1.6
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
Net dividend yield
(%)
|
4.6
|
4.8
|
3.4
|
3.9
|
ROAE (%)
|
12.2
|
11.1
|
7.9
|
8.7
|
ROAA (%)
|
6.7
|
6.2
|
4.1
|
4.2
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
11.1
|
12.2
|
13.2
|
11.1
|
Net debt/equity
(%)
|
20.6
|
22.0
|
46.1
|
41.3
|
|
§ FY6/15 net profit was above expectations.
§ FY6/16 outlook challenging. Keeping our
2016-17 EPS forecasts unchanged for now pending finalisation of our
industry wide CPO price review.
§ Our EPS forecasts, TP and HOLD call under
review.
|
MY: Genting Malaysia
(GENM MK)
Share Price: MYR3.91
Target Price: MYR4.55
Recommendation: Buy
|
|
Samuel Yin Shao Yang
(603) 2297 8916
samuel.y@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY13A
|
FY14A
|
FY15E
|
FY16E
|
Revenue
|
8,327.5
|
8,229.4
|
8,945.4
|
9,912.6
|
EBITDA
|
2,428.2
|
2,247.6
|
2,477.2
|
2,713.7
|
Core net profit
|
1,715.7
|
1,358.1
|
1,329.1
|
1,413.3
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
30.2
|
23.9
|
23.4
|
24.9
|
Core EPS growth
(%)
|
6.8
|
(20.8)
|
(2.1)
|
6.3
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
7.1
|
6.5
|
6.4
|
6.8
|
Core P/E (x)
|
12.9
|
16.3
|
16.7
|
15.7
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.4
|
1.4
|
1.3
|
1.2
|
Net dividend yield
(%)
|
1.8
|
1.7
|
1.6
|
1.7
|
ROAE (%)
|
12.0
|
8.6
|
7.9
|
7.9
|
ROAA (%)
|
9.3
|
6.7
|
5.9
|
5.8
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
9.4
|
9.7
|
8.7
|
8.1
|
Net debt/equity
(%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
§ 2Q15 results missed by a tad on bad debts
at GENUK. Otherwise, RWG operations stay strong despite the 6% GST.
§ Trim EPS estimates by 5-9% only due to the
MYR2.4b MTNs. That said, EBITDA estimates are little changed.
§ Maintain BUY but trim TP from MYR4.60 to
MYR4.55. A lot of runway for growth left.
|
MY: Genting Bhd
(GENT MK)
Share Price: MYR6.64
Target Price: MYR9.35
Recommendation: Buy
|
|
Samuel Yin Shao Yang
(603) 2297 8916
samuel.y@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY13A
|
FY14A
|
FY15E
|
FY16E
|
Revenue
|
17,111.7
|
18,216.5
|
18,753.6
|
20,496.4
|
EBITDA
|
6,116.4
|
6,627.5
|
6,531.3
|
7,207.0
|
Core net profit
|
1,681.4
|
1,777.4
|
1,811.7
|
2,097.1
|
Core FDEPS (sen)
|
45.5
|
46.2
|
43.9
|
50.3
|
Core FDEPS
growth(%)
|
(27.2)
|
1.5
|
(4.9)
|
14.6
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
37.5
|
4.0
|
3.8
|
4.4
|
Core FD P/E (x)
|
14.6
|
14.4
|
15.1
|
13.2
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
0.8
|
Net dividend yield
(%)
|
5.6
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
0.7
|
ROAE (%)
|
7.2
|
6.8
|
6.6
|
7.2
|
ROAA (%)
|
2.5
|
2.5
|
2.4
|
2.7
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
8.5
|
7.3
|
6.3
|
5.9
|
Net debt/equity
(%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
§ Core earnings missed. No interim DPS
declared. That said, 2H15 should be better on normalised GENS VIP win
rates.
§ Trim EPS estimates by 2-6%. Tweak TP from
MYR9.30 to MYR9.35. Upgrade GENT from HOLD to BUY.
§ Trading at a huge ~40% discount to SOP/sh
and <1x P/BV. Normalised earnings going forward to narrow discount.
|
MY: IHH Healthcare
(IHH MK)
Share Price: MYR5.71
Target Price: MYR5.35
Recommendation: Hold
|
|
John Cheong
(65) 6231 5845
johncheong@maybank-ke.com.sg
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY13A
|
FY14A
|
FY15E
|
FY16E
|
Revenue
|
6,756.5
|
7,344.0
|
8,739.3
|
10,050.9
|
EBITDA
|
1,749.8
|
1,943.0
|
2,294.1
|
2,638.8
|
Core net profit
|
610.6
|
754.7
|
964.7
|
1,176.1
|
Core FDEPS (sen)
|
7.4
|
9.2
|
11.7
|
14.2
|
Core FDEPS
growth(%)
|
48.5
|
23.5
|
27.2
|
21.9
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
2.0
|
3.0
|
3.1
|
3.6
|
Core FD P/E (x)
|
76.9
|
62.2
|
48.9
|
40.1
|
P/BV (x)
|
2.6
|
2.4
|
2.3
|
2.2
|
Net dividend yield
(%)
|
0.4
|
0.5
|
0.5
|
0.6
|
ROAE (%)
|
3.5
|
4.0
|
4.9
|
5.7
|
ROAA (%)
|
2.3
|
2.7
|
3.3
|
3.9
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
20.3
|
22.1
|
22.1
|
18.9
|
Net debt/equity
(%)
|
12.8
|
9.3
|
9.0
|
3.3
|
|
§ 2Q15 in line, 6M15 core earnings met 48% of
our FY15E.
§ Growth was boosted by the ramp up of new
hospital, robust Singapore operations, and a spike in revenue per inpatient
in Malaysia and Turkey.
§ We look for more expansion to sustain
growth. Maintain HOLD and TP as positives may have been priced in.
|
MY: UMW Holdings
(UMWH MK)
Share Price: MYR8.49
Target Price: MYR7.80
Recommendation: Hold
|
|
Ivan Yap
(603) 2297 8612
ivan.yap@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY13A
|
FY14A
|
FY15E
|
FY16E
|
Revenue
|
13,951.5
|
14,932.5
|
12,760.6
|
14,418.3
|
EBITDA
|
1,622.1
|
1,811.7
|
1,270.1
|
1,724.3
|
Core net profit
|
752.8
|
757.3
|
406.3
|
590.8
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
64.4
|
64.8
|
34.8
|
50.6
|
Core EPS growth
(%)
|
(19.0)
|
0.6
|
(46.3)
|
45.4
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
44.0
|
41.0
|
26.1
|
37.9
|
Core P/E (x)
|
13.2
|
13.1
|
24.4
|
16.8
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.6
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
Net dividend yield
(%)
|
5.2
|
4.8
|
3.1
|
4.5
|
ROAE (%)
|
13.5
|
11.8
|
6.1
|
8.7
|
ROAA (%)
|
5.8
|
4.9
|
2.4
|
3.5
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
10.6
|
9.1
|
11.6
|
8.3
|
Net debt/equity
(%)
|
6.8
|
12.4
|
25.2
|
15.6
|
|
§ 1H15 earnings below our and consensus
forecasts.
§ Further weakness ahead, (i) hit from
USD-denominated auto COGS and (ii) underutilisation of O&G rigs and
weak DCRs.
§ Cut FY15-17 earnings by 20%-34%. Maintain
HOLD; SOP-TP lowered to MYR7.80 (-18%).
|
MY: Cahya Mata Sarawak
(CMS MK)
Share Price: MYR4.91
Target Price: MYR5.95
Recommendation: Buy
|
|
Li Shin Chai
(603) 2297 8684
lishin.c@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY13A
|
FY14A
|
FY15E
|
FY16E
|
Revenue
|
1,416.8
|
1,673.9
|
1,368.8
|
1,481.2
|
EBITDA
|
376.1
|
372.5
|
399.6
|
432.3
|
Core net profit
|
175.1
|
221.3
|
264.0
|
328.8
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
17.2
|
21.7
|
25.9
|
32.3
|
Core EPS growth
(%)
|
26.2
|
26.4
|
19.3
|
24.5
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
15.8
|
8.5
|
10.4
|
12.9
|
Core P/E (x)
|
28.6
|
22.6
|
19.0
|
15.2
|
P/BV (x)
|
3.0
|
2.8
|
2.5
|
2.3
|
Net dividend yield
(%)
|
3.2
|
1.7
|
2.1
|
2.6
|
ROAE (%)
|
11.2
|
12.8
|
14.0
|
15.9
|
ROAA (%)
|
7.7
|
8.5
|
9.3
|
10.9
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
5.5
|
9.6
|
11.7
|
10.9
|
Net debt/equity
(%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
§ 2Q15 results were below expectation.
§ Downside to earnings forecasts from higher
USD costs and delay in OMS plant full commission.
§ Forecasts unchanged pending analyst
briefing. Maintain BUY.
|
MY: Media Chinese International
(MCIL MK)
Share Price: MYR0.51
Target Price: MYR0.65
Recommendation: Hold
|
|
Samuel Yin Shao Yang
(603) 2297 8916
samuel.y@maybank-ib.com
|
Jade Tam
(603) 2297 8687
jade.tam@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
FYE Mar (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
Revenue
|
1,530.6
|
1,589.3
|
1,450.2
|
1,476.7
|
EBITDA
|
287.2
|
268.1
|
219.7
|
244.4
|
Core net profit
|
157.5
|
144.4
|
112.1
|
133.4
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
9.3
|
8.6
|
6.6
|
7.9
|
Core EPS growth
(%)
|
(8.2)
|
(8.3)
|
(22.4)
|
19.0
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
4.7
|
3.4
|
2.7
|
3.2
|
Core P/E (x)
|
5.4
|
5.9
|
7.6
|
6.4
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.2
|
1.1
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
Net dividend yield
(%)
|
9.2
|
6.7
|
5.3
|
6.3
|
ROAE (%)
|
23.3
|
19.4
|
14.0
|
15.5
|
ROAA (%)
|
10.5
|
9.4
|
7.2
|
9.0
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
6.0
|
4.5
|
3.9
|
3.2
|
Net debt/equity
(%)
|
21.9
|
5.9
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
§ 1QFY3/16 was above expectations on cost
management efforts and better performance in the travel segment.
§ FY3/16 is expected to be another
challenging year but we are sanguine on MCIL’s cost management abilities.
§ Upgrade to BUY. Trading at only 1x P/BV and
offering >5% yields. TP maintained at MYR0.65 TP on 1.3x end-CY15 P/BV.
|
MY: Hock Seng Lee
(HSL MK)
Share Price: MYR1.72
Target Price: MYR2.15
Recommendation: Buy
|
|
Li Shin Chai
(603) 2297 8684
lishin.c@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY13A
|
FY14A
|
FY15E
|
FY16E
|
Revenue
|
548.4
|
604.7
|
650.4
|
804.6
|
EBITDA
|
118.6
|
109.4
|
110.7
|
133.6
|
Core net profit
|
85.2
|
76.9
|
77.2
|
93.6
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
15.4
|
14.0
|
14.0
|
17.0
|
Core EPS growth
(%)
|
(5.9)
|
(9.3)
|
0.4
|
21.2
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
2.4
|
2.0
|
3.3
|
3.3
|
Core P/E (x)
|
11.2
|
12.3
|
12.3
|
10.1
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.8
|
1.6
|
1.5
|
1.3
|
Net dividend yield
(%)
|
1.4
|
1.2
|
1.9
|
1.9
|
ROAE (%)
|
16.8
|
13.6
|
12.4
|
13.7
|
ROAA (%)
|
11.1
|
9.7
|
8.6
|
8.7
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
7.2
|
7.2
|
5.3
|
3.9
|
Net debt/equity
(%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
§ Results fell short due to
weaker-than-expected margins.
§ Cut earnings but TP unchanged at MYR2.15
after rolling forward valuations.
§ Maintain BUY; beneficiary of SCORE and Pan
Borneo Highway.
|
MY: Mah Sing Group
(MSGB MK)
Share Price: MYR1.44
Target Price: MYR1.39
Recommendation: Hold
|
|
Wei Sum Wong
(603) 2297 8679
weisum@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY13A
|
FY14A
|
FY15E
|
FY16E
|
Revenue
|
2,005.6
|
2,904.7
|
2,459.7
|
2,647.1
|
EBITDA
|
391.1
|
552.0
|
608.8
|
663.8
|
Core net profit
|
280.6
|
339.2
|
376.3
|
401.1
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
16.2
|
18.4
|
19.2
|
20.5
|
Core EPS growth
(%)
|
(25.7)
|
13.8
|
4.5
|
6.6
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
8.0
|
6.5
|
7.7
|
8.2
|
Core P/E (x)
|
8.9
|
7.8
|
7.5
|
7.0
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.3
|
1.2
|
0.9
|
0.8
|
Net dividend yield
(%)
|
5.6
|
4.5
|
5.3
|
5.7
|
ROAE (%)
|
17.6
|
16.1
|
14.0
|
12.4
|
ROAA (%)
|
6.9
|
6.9
|
6.4
|
5.8
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
8.1
|
7.0
|
4.6
|
4.3
|
Net debt/equity
(%)
|
15.5
|
35.8
|
net cash
|
0.5
|
|
§ 1H15 net profit of MYR189m (+11% YoY) is in
line.
§ Management cuts sales target by 33%. It has
also rescinded the land deal in Puchong.
§ We cut earnings forecasts by 7-19%. Our
RNAV-TP is lowered to MYR1.39. Reiterate HOLD.
|
MY: NCB Holdings
(NCB MK)
Share Price: MYR4.23
Target Price: MYR5.50
Recommendation: Buy
|
|
Yen Ling Lee
(603) 2297 8691
lee.yl@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY13A
|
FY14A
|
FY15E
|
FY16E
|
Revenue
|
919.4
|
831.0
|
835.0
|
894.2
|
EBITDA
|
199.2
|
125.1
|
179.9
|
229.5
|
Core net profit
|
51.7
|
27.9
|
40.9
|
83.4
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
11.0
|
5.9
|
8.7
|
17.7
|
Core EPS growth
(%)
|
(58.9)
|
(46.1)
|
47.0
|
103.7
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
8.0
|
7.0
|
7.0
|
8.0
|
Core P/E (x)
|
38.5
|
71.4
|
48.6
|
23.9
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.4
|
1.4
|
1.4
|
1.4
|
Net dividend yield
(%)
|
1.9
|
1.7
|
1.7
|
1.9
|
ROAE (%)
|
3.7
|
2.0
|
2.9
|
5.8
|
ROAA (%)
|
2.8
|
1.3
|
1.8
|
3.6
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
8.6
|
9.6
|
11.1
|
8.9
|
Net debt/equity
(%)
|
3.7
|
8.8
|
0.8
|
4.1
|
|
§ Earnings could soften in 3Q and pick up in
4Q on tariff hike.
§ Reduce FY15-17 EPS by 16%/5%/5% on lower
throughput expectation and 1 month delay in tariff implementation.
§ A privatisation candidate; maintain BUY
with a lower TP of MYR5.50 (-4%).
|
MY: MSM Malaysia (MSM
MK)
Share Price: MYR4.92
Target Price: MYR5.50
Recommendation: Hold
|
|
Liew Wei Han
(603) 2297 8676
weihan.l@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY13A
|
FY14A
|
FY15E
|
FY16E
|
Revenue
|
2,202.5
|
2,281.5
|
2,325.6
|
2,371.0
|
EBITDA
|
386.3
|
383.4
|
425.3
|
442.2
|
Core net profit
|
253.2
|
257.0
|
275.3
|
276.6
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
36.0
|
36.6
|
39.2
|
39.3
|
Core EPS growth
(%)
|
27.6
|
1.5
|
7.1
|
0.5
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
24.0
|
24.0
|
25.7
|
25.8
|
Core P/E (x)
|
13.7
|
13.5
|
12.6
|
12.5
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.9
|
1.8
|
1.7
|
1.6
|
Net dividend yield
(%)
|
4.9
|
4.9
|
5.2
|
5.2
|
ROAE (%)
|
14.0
|
13.5
|
13.8
|
13.3
|
ROAA (%)
|
11.2
|
11.0
|
10.7
|
10.4
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
9.1
|
9.6
|
8.7
|
8.3
|
Net debt/equity
(%)
|
0.2
|
10.4
|
12.8
|
10.9
|
|
§ Construction is expected to be completed in
22 months or third quarter of 2017.
§ Provides new capacity to support future
growth, mainly exports, in our view.
§ Maintain HOLD with an unchanged TP of
MYR5.50.
|
MY: Technicals
|
|
Lee Cheng Hooi
(603) 2297 8694
chenghooi.lee@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
|
§ AMBANK - On a very strong downward Wave 3 and
5 move.
§ FBMKLCI – Some price stability finally seen.
§ Supports of 1,555 and 1,580 may be areas to
nibble.
§ Resistances of 1,583 and 1,652 will cap
rebounds.
|
MY: Other News
|
|
Malaysia
Research Team
|
|
|
|
|
Outside
Malaysia
—
U.S: Orders for capital goods rose in July by most in a year
—
U.S: Fed’s Dudley cools September prospects while leaving room to
act
—
U.K: Bonuses rise to near-record level; Bank payouts decline
Other News
—
PM announced a Special Economic Committee
—
Property: Naza TTDI bags Kwasa Damansara Project R2-1
—
Tenaga Nasional: Inks supplement power purchase deal with
Jimah East
—
Selangor Dredging: On lookout for
land
—
Tambun Indah Land: To launch MYR300m worth of projects in 2H
|
|
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