AUD: Bears Reassert
§ RBA Minutes
reveals clear easing bias as the central bank maintains focus on a weak
household consumption and potential decline in mining investment.
§ More data is
needed before RBA delivers the next cut. Of note, tomorrow’s inflation print
will be scrutinized. We think upcoming macro-prudential measures to rein in
housing credit could allow RBA to deliver its next cut.
§ AUD players
already had a “prelude” to this dovish minutes when RBA Glenn Stevens insisted
that further rate cuts are possible in New York session on Mon (20 Apr). Recent
AUDUSD fall knocks the pairing back into consolidation within 0.7530-0.7880 and prices could extend its decline should 1Q CPI numbers turn out weaker
tomorrow. That said, we note that there is a bullish divergence that could play
out should China stimulus trickle into the pockets of Australian exporters and
prefer to buy on dips for a tactical bullish call.
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