Wednesday, February 28, 2018

FW: [Maybank IB] Today's Research - Malaysia

 

 

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FEATURED
CALLS

Malaysia | Genting Bhd
Steady earnings delivery
Samuel Yin Shao Yang

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COMPANY
RESEARCH

IHH Healthcare | Healthier Progress in 2018; Maintain BUY
John Cheong

Genting Malaysia | Respectable end to 2017
Samuel Yin Shao Yang

Bumitama Agri | Too cheap to ignore
Chee Ting Ong

Inari Amertron | Beating expectations again
Ivan Yap

Barakah Offshore Petroleum | More challenges ahead (BARAKAH MK, CP MYR0.28, SELL, TP MYR0.09, Oil & Gas)
Thong Jung Liaw

Star Media Group Bhd | Boosted by deferred tax
Jade Tam

Magnum Berhad | Strong end to an eventful year
Samuel Yin Shao Yang

Icon Offshore | Recommence coverage
Thong Jung Liaw

Boustead Plantations | FY17 core results and dividend exceeded expectations (BPLANT MK, CP MYR1.69, HOLD, TP MYR1.80, Plantations)
Chee Ting Ong

RHB Bank | FY17 results marginally below
Desmond Ch'ng

AirAsia Bhd | FY17 results below (AIRA MK, CP MYR4.46, HOLD, TP MYR3.81, Airlines)
Mohshin Aziz

Kimlun Bhd | 4Q17: Beat expectations
Adrian Wong

Sunway Construction Group | Secures MYR274m building job
Adrian Wong

Sunway REIT | Sunway Carnival expansion in progress
Kevin Wong

Tambun Indah Land | Expects flattish sales growth
Wei Sum Wong

Globetronics Technology | All's well, ends well
Ivan Yap

UEM Sunrise | A good year
Wei Sum Wong

IJM Corporation | 3QFY18: Earnings fell short
Adrian Wong

Oldtown | 3QFY18: Higher expenses and raw material costs
Liew Wei Han

Telekom Malaysia | Routine finish
Chi Wei Tan

Hock Seng Lee | Earnings recovery in motion
Adrian Wong

PECCA Group | Expect a much stronger 2H
Ivan Yap

TSH Resources | Results below expectations
Chee Ting Ong

Lafarge Malaysia | Higher bag ASPs ahead
Yen Ling Lee

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COMPANY RESEARCH

Malaysia

TP Revision

IHH Healthcare (IHH MK)
by John Cheong

Share Price:

MYR6.11

Target Price:

MYR7.00

Recommendation:

Buy

Healthier Progress in 2018; Maintain BUY

We raise FY18E EPS 8% and SOTP TP by 14% to MYR7.00 after lifting our EBITDA margin estimates. IHH has shown a consistent track record in driving case intensity, Singapore achieved another record year for its EBITDA margin and Malaysia improved. FY17 core earnings beat our estimate slightly, by 6%, but missed consensus by 10%. We expect FY18 to be a healthy rebound year as two major hospitals started in 1Q17 are ramping up nicely. Four home markets have also shown consistent healthy performance.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

10,021.9

11,142.7

12,995.4

15,179.6

EBITDA

2,188.9

2,783.0

2,641.2

3,058.2

Core net profit

866.0

595.4

913.3

1,127.0

Core FDEPS (sen)

10.5

7.2

11.1

13.6

Core FDEPS growth(%)

(4.0)

(31.3)

53.4

23.4

Net DPS (sen)

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

Core FD P/E (x)

58.2

84.8

55.3

44.8

P/BV (x)

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.1

Net dividend yield (%)

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

ROAE (%)

2.8

4.4

4.1

4.9

ROAA (%)

2.4

1.6

2.3

2.8

EV/EBITDA (x)

27.0

18.3

20.1

17.0

Net debt/equity (%)

21.1

2.8

3.4

net cash

Malaysia

Results Review

Genting Bhd (GENT MK)
by Samuel Yin Shao Yang

Share Price:

MYR8.99

Target Price:

MYR12.75

Recommendation:

Buy

Steady earnings delivery

4Q17/FY17 results were in-line. We trim our FY18/FY19 core net profit estimates by 2% p.a. to account for only minor model adjustments. We expect improved earnings contribution from RWG in FY18 which will also translate into more highly profitable licensing and management fees. Our TP is tweaked up 2% on higher TP for GENP (MYR12.10 vs. MYR11.16 previously) and minor housekeeping changes. At 44% discount to SOP/sh, we continue to see value in GENT.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

18,365.8

20,019.6

21,697.7

23,904.9

EBITDA

6,046.2

7,518.9

8,455.5

9,544.5

Core net profit

1,500.7

2,128.6

2,505.8

3,051.2

Core FDEPS (sen)

40.1

55.4

56.2

68.5

Core FDEPS growth(%)

15.2

38.3

1.4

21.8

Net DPS (sen)

12.5

21.5

17.8

21.5

Core FD P/E (x)

22.4

16.2

16.0

13.1

P/BV (x)

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

Net dividend yield (%)

1.4

2.4

2.0

2.4

ROAE (%)

6.3

4.2

7.2

8.3

ROAA (%)

1.6

2.3

2.7

3.2

EV/EBITDA (x)

7.6

7.2

6.5

5.7

Net debt/equity (%)

net cash

net cash

net cash

net cash

Malaysia

Results Review

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK)
by Samuel Yin Shao Yang

Share Price:

MYR5.27

Target Price:

MYR5.35

Recommendation:

Hold

Respectable end to 2017

After three consecutive quarters of poorer-than-expected earnings, GENM delivered 4Q17 core net profit that was a tad above our expectations. Operating parameters improved, reassuring us that our above-consensus earnings estimates will be met. Our core earnings estimates are trimmed 3% p.a. but EBITDA estimates are unchanged. A special DPS of 8sen pleasantly surprised and brought FY17 DPS to 17sen but FY17 dividend yield of 3.2% is still lukewarm, in our opinion.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

8,931.6

9,328.7

10,916.2

12,678.6

EBITDA

2,394.9

2,319.4

2,988.6

3,711.3

Core net profit

1,549.0

1,410.4

1,857.9

2,485.9

Core FDEPS (sen)

27.3

24.8

32.6

43.7

Core FDEPS growth(%)

34.2

(9.1)

31.4

33.8

Net DPS (sen)

16.5

17.0

11.8

15.8

Core FD P/E (x)

19.3

21.2

16.2

12.1

P/BV (x)

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.4

Net dividend yield (%)

3.1

3.2

2.2

3.0

ROAE (%)

14.8

5.9

9.3

11.7

ROAA (%)

5.6

4.9

6.1

7.8

EV/EBITDA (x)

10.5

14.0

10.2

7.9

Net debt/equity (%)

net cash

4.3

4.6

net cash

Singapore

TP Revision

Bumitama Agri (BAL SP)
by Chee Ting Ong

Share Price:

SGD0.75

Target Price:

SGD0.99

Recommendation:

Buy

Too cheap to ignore

No surprises to 2017 earnings. For 2018, we expect a 10% core PATMI growth as output continues its growth trajectory. Trading at just 10x FY18 PER, more than 1SD below its historical mean, BAL remains a BUY with a revised TP of SGD0.99 on 14x 2018 PER (5-year historical mean) as we roll forward our valuation year (previously SGD0.95 on 14x 2017 PER).

FYE Dec (IDR b)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

6,629.8

8,131.4

7,894.6

8,367.0

EBITDA

1,947.2

2,402.9

2,513.4

2,818.7

Core net profit

919.0

1,170.8

1,288.5

1,485.6

Core EPS (IDR)

523

666

733

845

Core EPS growth (%)

11.9

27.4

10.1

15.3

Net DPS (IDR)

216

200

220

254

Core P/E (x)

14.7

11.6

10.5

9.1

P/BV (x)

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.4

Net dividend yield (%)

2.8

2.6

2.9

3.3

ROAE (%)

16.2

16.8

16.3

16.7

ROAA (%)

6.3

7.8

8.1

8.9

EV/EBITDA (x)

9.7

7.8

7.3

6.3

Net debt/equity (%)

57.8

53.5

38.5

25.3

Malaysia

TP Revision

Inari Amertron (INRI MK)
by Ivan Yap

Share Price:

MYR3.45

Target Price:

MYR4.20

Recommendation:

Buy

Beating expectations again

Inari's 1HFY6/17 core net profit of MYR169m (+50% YoY) trounced all expectations. The upside surprise came mainly from a commendable margin expansion, likely due to a favourable sales mix and better operating efficiencies. We raise FY18-20E earnings by 11%-15%, remaining positive on Inari's sustained double-digit growth prospects. We lift TP to MYR4.20 (+24%), pegging to 22x CY19 EPS (from 20x); this represents a 20% premium to our target PER for tech companies within our coverage. Reiterate BUY

FYE Jun (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

1,043.1

1,176.7

1,537.6

1,782.1

EBITDA

203.7

303.7

432.3

516.5

Core net profit

155.8

206.4

324.5

386.7

Core EPS (sen)

7.8

9.9

15.5

18.5

Core EPS growth (%)

1.7

27.4

57.2

19.2

Net DPS (sen)

4.2

8.3

11.6

13.9

Core P/E (x)

44.5

34.9

22.2

18.6

P/BV (x)

10.1

8.2

7.4

6.6

Net dividend yield (%)

1.2

2.4

3.4

4.0

ROAE (%)

24.3

29.2

35.1

37.5

ROAA (%)

18.2

19.9

25.6

27.6

EV/EBITDA (x)

13.8

13.2

15.6

13.0

Net debt/equity (%)

net cash

net cash

net cash

net cash

Malaysia

TP Revision

Barakah Offshore Petroleum (BARAKAH MK)
by Thong Jung Liaw

Share Price:

MYR0.28

Target Price:

MYR0.09

Recommendation:

Sell

More challenges ahead (BARAKAH MK, CP MYR0.28, SELL, TP MYR0.09, Oil & Gas)

While the poor FY17 results were expected, Barakah faces another tough 2018. We estimate that it needs to do a cash call and find a strategic partner/buyer for its KL101 vessel. Order book is at its low with the crucial need to replenish. We cut FY18E earnings by another 51% and reduce our TP to MYR0.09 (-31%), based on 1x EV/replacement value (unchanged; rolled over net debt to FY17). SELL.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

622.6

310.9

305.0

471.8

EBITDA

58.9

(173.9)

(97.4)

50.9

Core net profit

10.0

(161.9)

(142.7)

2.8

Core EPS (sen)

1.2

(18.8)

(16.5)

0.3

Core EPS growth (%)

(21.8)

nm

nm

nm

Net DPS (sen)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Core P/E (x)

23.7

nm

nm

86.2

P/BV (x)

0.5

1.0

3.4

3.3

Net dividend yield (%)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

ROAE (%)

3.5

(69.1)

(108.1)

4.4

ROAA (%)

1.3

(23.5)

(27.2)

0.5

EV/EBITDA (x)

12.4

nm

nm

11.4

Net debt/equity (%)

35.9

95.7

605.3

538.6

Malaysia

Results Review

Star Media Group Bhd (STAR MK)
by Jade Tam

Share Price:

MYR1.32

Target Price:

MYR1.47

Recommendation:

Hold

Boosted by deferred tax

4Q17 headline net loss of MYR155m included MYR177m negative one-offs from impairment in goodwill and PPE, write off in PPE and MSS costs. 4Q17 core net profit was above expectations mainly due to a large positive deferred tax. That said, all segments underperformed YoY in terms of revenue. We maintain our earnings forecasts, SOP-TP and HOLD call for now pending an analyst briefing on 6 Mar.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

932.1

674.5

743.7

749.4

EBITDA

162.1

90.3

110.6

114.5

Core net profit

69.9

60.6

48.0

53.8

Core EPS (sen)

9.5

8.0

6.5

7.3

Core EPS growth (%)

(47.0)

(15.6)

(18.8)

12.2

Net DPS (sen)

18.0

42.0

15.0

15.0

Core P/E (x)

13.9

16.5

20.3

18.1

P/BV (x)

0.9

1.1

1.0

1.1

Net dividend yield (%)

13.6

31.8

11.4

11.4

ROAE (%)

9.7

9.1

5.2

5.8

ROAA (%)

4.1

4.3

3.9

4.0

EV/EBITDA (x)

9.0

9.3

7.0

7.2

Net debt/equity (%)

net cash

net cash

net cash

net cash

Malaysia

Results Review

Magnum Berhad (MAG MK)
by Samuel Yin Shao Yang

Share Price:

MYR1.98

Target Price:

MYR2.10

Recommendation:

Buy

Strong end to an eventful year

Earnings were in-line but dividends outperformed again. 4Q17 gross NFO revenue/draw even grew 6% YoY which is a major positive reversal after years of pessimism. Our DPS estimates raised by 14%. Rolling forward our valuation base year to end-FY18E from FY17E, our DCF-based TP is tweaked by +5% to MYR2.10. Coupled with 16sen of DPS by end-FY18E, we foresee total upside of 14%. Catalysts are:- (i) sharp reduction in tax penalty of MYR476.5m (MYR0.33/shr) and (ii) reversion to >80% DPR.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

2,659.3

2,649.2

2,639.8

2,692.6

EBITDA

326.7

348.1

360.4

368.5

Core net profit

189.4

206.5

219.3

224.8

Core EPS (sen)

13.3

14.5

15.4

15.8

Core EPS growth (%)

(16.3)

9.0

6.2

2.5

Net DPS (sen)

13.0

11.0

12.0

12.0

Core P/E (x)

14.9

13.6

12.8

12.5

P/BV (x)

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.1

Net dividend yield (%)

6.6

5.6

6.1

6.1

ROAE (%)

7.8

8.4

8.8

8.8

ROAA (%)

5.2

5.8

6.2

6.2

EV/EBITDA (x)

11.4

8.6

9.2

8.8

Net debt/equity (%)

24.1

19.3

17.1

14.6

Malaysia

Rating Change

Icon Offshore (ICON MK)
by Thong Jung Liaw

Share Price:

MYR0.23

Target Price:

MYR0.22

Recommendation:

Hold

Recommence coverage

FY17 results show improved YoY performance albeit remaining in the red. Overall, Icon reported higher OSV utilisation, on lower DCRs. Clinching considerable contract wins from the much anticipated PETRONAS Integrated Logistics Control Tower (ILCT) OSV contracts is a catalyst. Until then, Icon is fairly valued. Our TP is based on 0.5x BV.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

226.9

204.6

237.9

252.1

EBITDA

88.3

83.0

96.8

111.0

Core net profit

0.7

(22.9)

(2.6)

11.7

Core EPS (sen)

0.1

(1.9)

(0.2)

1.0

Core EPS growth (%)

(96.1)

nm

nm

nm

Net DPS (sen)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Core P/E (x)

376.4

nm

nm

23.1

P/BV (x)

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

Net dividend yield (%)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

ROAE (%)

(22.7)

(9.9)

(0.5)

2.2

ROAA (%)

0.0

(1.7)

(0.2)

0.9

EV/EBITDA (x)

12.3

10.9

8.0

6.5

Net debt/equity (%)

114.2

122.6

98.2

86.2

Malaysia

TP Revision

Boustead Plantations (BPLANT MK)
by Chee Ting Ong

Share Price:

MYR1.69

Target Price:

MYR1.80

Recommendation:

Hold

FY17 core results and dividend exceeded expectations (BPLANT MK, CP MYR1.69, HOLD, TP MYR1.80, Plantations)

FY17 core earnings exceeded expectations on better-than-expected output recovery. For FY18, we expect some core earnings pressure mainly on expectation of lower CPO prices. Following the results, we tweak our RNAV-TP to MYR1.80 (+1%) but maintain our HOLD call given limited upside. A fourth interim DPS of 4sen (ex-date: 12 Mar) was announced to sustain interest, bringing FY17 total DPS to 19.5sen (2016: 14.5sen). Key catalyst for BPLANT: More land disposals to sustain yields.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

707.9

760.1

778.1

788.0

EBITDA

188.4

230.2

223.5

222.7

Core net profit

81.5

134.7

123.1

129.3

Core EPS (sen)

5.1

8.4

7.7

8.1

Core EPS growth (%)

157.7

65.3

(8.6)

5.0

Net DPS (sen)

14.5

19.5

6.2

6.2

Core P/E (x)

33.2

20.1

22.0

20.9

P/BV (x)

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.0

Net dividend yield (%)

8.6

11.5

3.7

3.7

ROAE (%)

10.4

28.1

4.8

5.0

ROAA (%)

2.5

4.4

4.3

4.4

EV/EBITDA (x)

17.0

12.3

11.7

11.6

Net debt/equity (%)

21.5

4.8

net cash

net cash

Malaysia

TP Revision

RHB Bank (RHBBANK MK)
by Desmond Ch'ng

Share Price:

MYR5.47

Target Price:

MYR5.90

Recommendation:

Hold

FY17 results marginally below

What is positive is that RHB continues to gain market share in the SME segment and CASA accumulation has been strong. Against management's FY18 ROE target of 9-10%, we estimate 9.2%/9.3%% for FY18/19. We roll forward valuations to CY19 but continue to attach a P/BV of 0.9x. Our TP is raised to MYR5.90 from MYR5.40. We maintain our HOLD call on RHB.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Operating income

6,189.9

6,386.7

6,637.9

6,931.0

Pre-provision profit

3,094.5

3,200.2

3,338.7

3,514.0

Core net profit

1,681.6

1,950.1

2,188.0

2,359.0

Core EPS (MYR)

0.44

0.51

0.55

0.59

Core EPS growth (%)

(36.9)

16.0

7.9

7.8

Net DPS (MYR)

0.12

0.15

0.17

0.18

Core P/E (x)

12.5

10.8

10.0

9.3

P/BV (x)

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.8

Net dividend yield (%)

2.2

2.7

3.1

3.3

Book value (MYR)

5.42

5.77

6.15

6.56

ROAE (%)

8.5

8.7

9.2

9.3

ROAA (%)

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Malaysia

TP Revision

AirAsia Bhd (AIRA MK)
by Mohshin Aziz

Share Price:

MYR4.46

Target Price:

MYR3.81

Recommendation:

Hold

FY17 results below (AIRA MK, CP MYR4.46, HOLD, TP MYR3.81, Airlines)

2017 core net profit of MYR1,416m (+30.2% YoY) was below expectations. Yields softened and cost spiked significantly in 4Q17. The yield outlook in 2018 is slightly more challenging than initially thought. As such, we lower FY18-19E earnings by 2.4% and 4.1% respectively and introduce FY20 forecast. Our new TP is MYR3.81, pegged to an unchanged 10x 2018 PER, mid-point of airline cycle. AirAsia is a HOLD after factoring a potential dividend yield of 7%, including specials.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

8,506.3

9,709.7

10,561.0

11,088.1

EBITDAR

3,303.5

3,651.9

3,503.6

3,682.9

Core net profit

1,087.1

1,415.9

1,271.3

1,331.0

Core EPS (sen)

32.5

42.4

38.0

39.8

Core EPS growth (%)

409.2

30.2

(10.2)

4.7

Net DPS (sen)

16.0

24.0

9.0

10.0

Core P/E (x)

13.7

10.5

11.7

11.2

P/BV (x)

2.2

2.3

2.0

1.8

Net dividend yield (%)

3.6

5.4

2.0

2.2

ROAE (%)

23.2

24.5

18.5

16.9

ROAA (%)

5.0

6.6

5.7

5.4

EV/EBITDAR (x)

5.0

5.1

6.8

6.8

Net debt/equity (%)

133.3

116.3

119.2

122.0

Malaysia

Results Review

Kimlun Bhd (KICB MK)
by Adrian Wong

Share Price:

MYR2.15

Target Price:

MYR2.61

Recommendation:

Buy

4Q17: Beat expectations

FY17 core earnings were above ours/consensus expectations on stronger-than-expected contribution from the construction segment. No change to our earnings forecasts and TP of MYR2.61 pegged to 10x FY18 PER (+0.5 SD) pending an analyst briefing on 13th March. Reiterate BUY on Kimlun on the back of decent growth prospects and potential earnings upside to our forecasts. Valuation remains undemanding at 8.2x FY18 PER.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

940.7

985.2

1,215.8

1,162.8

EBITDA

130.9

121.8

131.6

134.8

Core net profit

80.7

80.1

79.9

81.9

Core EPS (sen)

26.4

26.2

26.1

26.7

Core EPS growth (%)

23.0

(0.7)

(0.4)

2.5

Net DPS (sen)

6.5

5.5

7.0

7.2

Core P/E (x)

8.1

8.2

8.2

8.0

P/BV (x)

1.2

1.1

1.0

0.9

Net dividend yield (%)

3.0

2.6

3.3

3.4

ROAE (%)

na

na

na

na

ROAA (%)

8.2

7.4

6.4

6.1

EV/EBITDA (x)

5.1

5.9

5.2

4.7

Net debt/equity (%)

6.7

7.1

3.3

net cash

Malaysia

Company Update

Sunway Construction Group (SCGB MK)
by Adrian Wong

Share Price:

MYR2.40

Target Price:

MYR2.63

Recommendation:

Hold

Secures MYR274m building job

SCG has secured an e.MYR730m of new job wins YTD FY18 with this latest building job win. No change to our earnings forecasts having imputed job win potentials. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged TP of MYR2.63 (16x FY18 PER/+1SD).

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

1,788.8

2,076.3

2,814.4

3,271.7

EBITDA

188.3

202.4

297.3

312.1

Core net profit

123.5

137.8

212.1

220.3

Core EPS (sen)

9.6

10.7

16.4

17.1

Core EPS growth (%)

(2.9)

11.6

53.9

3.9

Net DPS (sen)

5.0

7.0

5.7

6.0

Core P/E (x)

25.1

22.5

14.6

14.1

P/BV (x)

6.3

5.6

4.5

3.7

Net dividend yield (%)

2.1

2.9

2.4

2.5

ROAE (%)

26.2

26.3

34.1

28.9

ROAA (%)

8.2

7.9

9.9

8.4

EV/EBITDA (x)

9.9

14.3

7.9

7.0

Net debt/equity (%)

net cash

net cash

net cash

net cash

Malaysia

Company Update

Sunway REIT (SREIT MK)
by Kevin Wong

Share Price:

MYR1.70

Target Price:

MYR1.85

Recommendation:

Buy

Sunway Carnival expansion in progress

We are positive on the expansion works award to Sunway Construction and remain upbeat on SunREIT's Sunway Carnival expansion plan. Our earnings forecasts, DDM-TP of MYR1.85 (cost of equity: 7.9%) are intact.

FYE Jun (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

507.0

522.9

579.4

607.0

Net property income

373.9

388.8

442.5

464.2

Distributable income

270.6

271.1

291.5

300.3

DPU (sen)

8.3

8.3

8.9

9.1

DPU growth (%)

5.2

0.2

7.2

2.5

Price/DPU(x)

20.6

20.6

19.2

18.7

P/BV (x)

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

DPU yield (%)

4.9

4.9

5.2

5.3

ROAE (%)

8.1

10.3

6.9

7.2

ROAA (%)

4.0

4.0

4.1

4.1

Debt/Assets (x)

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

Malaysia

TP Revision

Tambun Indah Land (TILB MK)
by Wei Sum Wong

Share Price:

MYR0.89

Target Price:

MYR0.91

Recommendation:

Hold

Expects flattish sales growth

Tambun Indah's (TI) 2017 net profit of MYR83m (-26% YoY) was below our expectation but 2017 sales of MYR146m (-36% YoY) was in line with our forecast. Management has set a sales target of MYR150m for 2018 (+2.7% YoY). Our FY18/19E net profit is adjusted by +31%/-18% post 2017 results and new sales assumption (-33%) and we introduce FY20 forecast. Maintain HOLD with a lower RNAV-TP of MYR0.91 (on a lower 0.3x P/RNAV peg).

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

360.8

282.1

252.9

253.7

EBITDA

145.8

113.4

70.7

71.7

Core net profit

107.0

83.4

54.1

55.2

Core FDEPS (sen)

24.9

19.2

12.5

12.7

Core FDEPS growth(%)

11.7

(22.6)

(35.2)

2.1

Net DPS (sen)

9.0

7.7

5.0

5.1

Core FD P/E (x)

3.6

4.6

7.1

6.9

P/BV (x)

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.6

Net dividend yield (%)

10.2

8.7

5.7

5.8

ROAE (%)

na

na

na

na

ROAA (%)

14.1

11.1

7.0

6.7

EV/EBITDA (x)

4.5

4.0

5.3

4.8

Net debt/equity (%)

10.2

2.0

net cash

net cash

Malaysia

Rating Change

Globetronics Technology (GTB MK)
by Ivan Yap

Share Price:

MYR6.22

Target Price:

MYR6.30

Recommendation:

Hold

All's well, ends well

GTB's FY17 core net profit was strong at MYR50m (+94% YoY), lifted by strong sensor demand – above ours but within consensus expectations at 108%/98%. We adjust FY18/19E earnings by -3%/+6%, having adjusted our volume, USD/MYR and margin assumptions. We also roll forward valuation to CY19, on an unchanged 18x PER peg (in-line with target multiples for tech stocks within our coverage) to derive a higher TP of MYR6.30 (+14%). We upgrade GTB to HOLD.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

215.3

304.6

386.1

437.7

EBITDA

51.2

82.8

132.3

150.3

Core net profit

25.7

50.0

83.8

98.7

Core FDEPS (sen)

9.0

17.4

29.2

34.4

Core FDEPS growth(%)

(64.6)

94.4

67.5

17.8

Net DPS (sen)

16.0

13.0

20.8

24.5

Core FD P/E (x)

69.5

35.7

21.3

18.1

P/BV (x)

6.7

6.2

5.7

5.2

Net dividend yield (%)

2.6

2.1

3.3

3.9

ROAE (%)

9.1

18.8

28.5

30.7

ROAA (%)

7.7

14.1

20.3

22.3

EV/EBITDA (x)

16.0

21.7

12.8

11.1

Net debt/equity (%)

net cash

net cash

net cash

net cash

Malaysia

Rating Change

UEM Sunrise (UEMS MK)
by Wei Sum Wong

Share Price:

MYR1.13

Target Price:

MYR1.25

Recommendation:

Hold

A good year

UEMS' 2017 net profit of MYR280m was driven by asset/land sale and came in within our expectation but beat consensus estimates. 2017 sales of MYR1.5b were above expectations. Management remains cautious and has set a sales target of MYR1.2b for 2018 given the challenging local property market outlook and the lack of new property launches overseas. We adjust our FY18/19 earnings forecasts by +43%/ +1% and we introduce FY20. Our new RNAV-TP is MYR1.25. D/G HOLD on limited upside.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

1,841.5

2,903.4

1,811.4

2,034.0

EBITDA

221.9

507.4

502.1

504.3

Core net profit

144.8

278.2

222.2

277.9

Core FDEPS (sen)

2.8

5.4

4.3

5.4

Core FDEPS growth(%)

(45.8)

92.1

(20.1)

25.1

Net DPS (sen)

0.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

Core FD P/E (x)

40.3

21.0

26.2

21.0

P/BV (x)

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.7

Net dividend yield (%)

0.0

0.9

0.9

1.0

ROAE (%)

na

na

na

na

ROAA (%)

1.1

2.0

1.5

1.8

EV/EBITDA (x)

36.3

16.7

19.8

20.1

Net debt/equity (%)

40.7

45.9

58.5

59.1

Malaysia

Results Review

IJM Corporation (IJM MK)
by Adrian Wong

Share Price:

MYR2.90

Target Price:

MYR3.40

Recommendation:

Buy

3QFY18: Earnings fell short

3QFY3/18 core earnings were below our/consensus estimates due to i) weaker-than-expected contributions from construction and industry, and ii) higher tax expense within the quarter. We lower our earnings for FY18E-FY20E by 3%-6% after adjusting for slower works recognition and a higher effective tax rate in FY18E. No change to our SOP-based TP of MYR3.40. We remain positive on IJM for its robust construction orderbook of MYR9.3b and long term investments in MCKIP and Kuantan Port.

FYE Mar (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

5,128.2

6,065.3

6,957.7

7,591.5

EBITDA

1,166.7

1,125.8

1,019.4

1,196.8

Core net profit

509.3

505.1

494.4

611.5

Core EPS (sen)

14.3

14.0

13.7

16.9

Core EPS growth (%)

(12.5)

(2.0)

(2.1)

23.7

Net DPS (sen)

10.0

7.5

7.0

7.0

Core P/E (x)

20.3

20.7

21.2

17.1

P/BV (x)

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.0

Net dividend yield (%)

3.4

2.6

2.4

2.4

ROAE (%)

9.1

7.1

5.1

6.1

ROAA (%)

2.6

2.5

2.3

2.9

EV/EBITDA (x)

15.4

15.5

15.6

13.2

Net debt/equity (%)

40.4

35.3

36.4

33.1

Malaysia

Results Review

Oldtown (OTB MK)
by Liew Wei Han

Share Price:

MYR3.16

Target Price:

MYR3.18

Recommendation:

Buy

3QFY18: Higher expenses and raw material costs

3QFY3/18 results were below expectations. The shortfall was mainly due to higher-than-expected expenses and raw material costs. We cut earnings by 8-12% for FY18-20E assuming higher opex and raw material costs. The takeover offer by Jacobs Douwe Egberts Holdings Asia NL. B.V. (JDE) remains open until 5pm, 13 March 2018. Our TP reflects the offer price of MYR3.18. We recommend investors to accept the offer.

FYE Mar (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

393.4

425.2

459.4

503.5

EBITDA

84.7

97.1

97.8

108.0

Core net profit

55.3

65.6

61.2

69.4

Core EPS (sen)

11.9

14.2

13.2

15.0

Core EPS growth (%)

6.1

18.6

(6.6)

13.3

Net DPS (sen)

9.0

10.0

7.3

8.2

Core P/E (x)

26.5

22.3

23.9

21.1

P/BV (x)

4.0

3.9

3.7

3.4

Net dividend yield (%)

2.8

3.2

2.3

2.6

ROAE (%)

15.0

16.6

15.9

16.8

ROAA (%)

12.5

14.5

13.0

13.8

EV/EBITDA (x)

6.4

11.5

13.2

11.7

Net debt/equity (%)

net cash

net cash

net cash

net cash

Malaysia

Results Review

Telekom Malaysia (T MK)
by Chi Wei Tan

Share Price:

MYR6.03

Target Price:

MYR6.00

Recommendation:

Hold

Routine finish

While FY17 net profit was in line, the underlying operational performance of selected products underwhelmed slightly. TM's near-term earnings trajectory remains subdued with Webe possibly remaining EBITDA-negative in the coming years. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged MYR6.00 TP.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

12,060.9

12,085.1

12,561.3

12,952.1

EBITDA

3,820.0

3,671.1

3,768.4

3,924.5

Core net profit

847.9

863.3

827.5

860.3

Core EPS (sen)

22.6

23.0

22.0

22.9

Core EPS growth (%)

(5.3)

1.8

(4.1)

4.0

Net DPS (sen)

21.5

21.5

19.8

20.6

Core P/E (x)

26.7

26.2

27.4

26.3

P/BV (x)

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.8

Net dividend yield (%)

3.6

3.6

3.3

3.4

ROAE (%)

10.0

12.0

10.5

10.8

ROAA (%)

3.4

3.5

3.3

3.4

EV/EBITDA (x)

7.1

8.1

7.8

7.7

Net debt/equity (%)

64.0

77.3

85.8

92.9

Malaysia

Rating Change

Hock Seng Lee (HSL MK)
by Adrian Wong

Share Price:

MYR1.64

Target Price:

MYR2.00

Recommendation:

Buy

Earnings recovery in motion

4Q17 results were within ours/consensus expectations on the back of recovery in construction earnings within the quarter. We keep our FY18E/FY19E earnings unchanged with FY18E earnings implying a 59% YoY growth. Its outstanding orderbook of MYR2.7b as of end-Dec 2017 would support growth into FY18. HSL is now a BUY with a higher TP of MYR2.00 (rounded) pegged to a higher 15x FY18 PER (5-year mean). Valuations are undemanding with the stock trading at -1SD on a FY18 PER of 12x.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

498.5

505.9

635.2

838.3

EBITDA

83.0

73.3

109.1

141.0

Core net profit

56.5

46.6

73.9

96.9

Core EPS (sen)

10.3

8.5

13.5

17.6

Core EPS growth (%)

(25.9)

(17.4)

58.6

31.1

Net DPS (sen)

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

Core P/E (x)

16.0

19.3

12.2

9.3

P/BV (x)

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

Net dividend yield (%)

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

ROAE (%)

na

na

na

na

ROAA (%)

6.7

5.0

7.3

8.6

EV/EBITDA (x)

9.6

9.9

7.2

5.3

Net debt/equity (%)

net cash

net cash

net cash

net cash

Malaysia

TP Revision

PECCA Group (PECCA MK)
by Ivan Yap

Share Price:

MYR1.35

Target Price:

MYR1.60

Recommendation:

Buy

Expect a much stronger 2H

Shortfall in 2QFY6/18 results came from a lower-than-expected volume at the OEM division as we had expected a strong inventory build-up in the period prior to the launch of the new Myvi in Nov 2017. We understand that Perodua had underestimated the demand for the 1.5L Advance variant which Pecca supplies to. We cut our FY18/19/20 net profit forecasts by 22%/9%/9% on lower volumes and ASPs. Our TP is lowered to MYR1.60 (-12%) on unchanged 14.5x CY19 PER. Maintain BUY for exposure to Perodua.

FYE Jun (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

126.3

122.2

121.9

136.2

EBITDA

22.6

21.0

22.4

28.1

Core net profit

16.5

14.8

15.7

19.6

Core EPS (sen)

8.8

7.9

8.5

10.6

Core EPS growth (%)

(8.0)

(10.5)

7.6

24.9

Net DPS (sen)

4.0

5.0

6.0

6.0

Core P/E (x)

15.4

17.2

16.0

12.8

P/BV (x)

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.4

Net dividend yield (%)

3.0

3.7

4.4

4.4

ROAE (%)

12.7

9.2

9.4

11.3

ROAA (%)

11.3

8.0

8.4

10.1

EV/EBITDA (x)

9.4

10.0

7.0

5.4

Net debt/equity (%)

net cash

net cash

net cash

net cash

Malaysia

Results Review

TSH Resources (TSH MK)
by Chee Ting Ong

Share Price:

MYR1.57

Target Price:

MYR1.65

Recommendation:

Hold

Results below expectations

Following the lower-than-expected FY17 results, we cut our FY18-19E EPS by 15%/16% mainly on higher share of minority profits. Our TP is unchanged at MYR1.65 even as we roll forward our valuation base year to FY18 on unchanged 19x PER peg (about 1SD below 5-year mean). TSH remains a HOLD as its growth potential is reflected by its traded PER of 18x (FY18). A first and final DPS of 2sen was proposed.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

872.3

1,073.5

1,127.9

1,135.2

EBITDA

155.2

249.6

247.0

261.5

Core net profit

69.2

99.8

120.2

135.6

Core EPS (sen)

5.1

7.3

8.7

9.8

Core EPS growth (%)

(8.3)

42.3

18.9

12.8

Net DPS (sen)

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.4

Core P/E (x)

30.5

21.5

18.0

16.0

P/BV (x)

1.4

1.5

1.4

1.3

Net dividend yield (%)

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.5

ROAE (%)

2.9

7.6

8.2

8.4

ROAA (%)

2.1

2.9

3.5

3.8

EV/EBITDA (x)

26.2

14.8

14.7

13.8

Net debt/equity (%)

84.1

81.2

76.4

68.8

Malaysia

Company Update

Lafarge Malaysia (LMC MK)
by Yen Ling Lee

Share Price:

MYR5.32

Target Price:

MYR5.10

Recommendation:

Hold

Higher bag ASPs ahead

All industry players will be raising their bag cement ASPs by >20% on 1st Mar 2018. Without any ASP hikes in the bulk cement segment, we estimate that LMC would remain loss-making but breakeven at operating level. We maintain our earnings forecasts, HOLD call and TP of MYR5.10 (1.5x P/B; -2SD to mean). We would only turn positive when industry players successfully push through higher bulk ASPs.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

2,552.2

2,248.8

2,518.5

2,928.2

EBITDA

302.1

(59.4)

125.4

368.8

Core net profit

84.9

(229.9)

(83.8)

100.9

Core EPS (sen)

10.0

(27.1)

(9.9)

11.9

Core EPS growth (%)

(66.3)

nm

nm

nm

Net DPS (sen)

5.0

0.0

0.0

10.7

Core P/E (x)

53.2

nm

nm

44.8

P/BV (x)

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.6

Net dividend yield (%)

0.9

0.0

0.0

2.0

ROAE (%)

2.5

(7.3)

(3.0)

3.6

ROAA (%)

2.0

(5.3)

(1.9)

2.3

EV/EBITDA (x)

20.7

nm

39.4

13.2

Net debt/equity (%)

4.6

13.5

14.9

12.4

MACRO RESEARCH

MY: Traders' Almanac

Asia Equities: Long-Term Uptrend Still Intact
by Nik Ihsan Raja Abdullah

Technical Research

FBMKLCI bucked the regional downtrend to end the day 11.38pts higher at 1,871.46 yesterday. Gainers were led by HLFG, HLBK and HAP. Market breadth still negative with losers outpacing gainers by 563 to 443. A total of 2.76b shares worth MYR2.89b changed hands. But as more corporates reported weaker-than-expected results overnight, coupled with the selloff in Wall Street, we believe market will take a breather today. Expect volatility to stay elevated.

NEWS

Outside Malaysia:

U.S: Merchandise trade deficit expanded in January to the widest level in more than nine years, while inventories rose at wholesalers and retailers, according to preliminary figures released by the Commerce Department. Goods-trade gap increased to USD74.4b from USD72.3b the prior month, according to preliminary figures. Wholesale inventories rose 0.7% MoM while retail stockpiles climbed 0.8% MoM. The trade deficit was the widest since July 2008 as exports fell more than imports. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.S: Imposes steep duties on China aluminum foil in dumping case. The U.S. Commerce Department slapped stiff duties on aluminum foil from China after concluding that the country's producers are receiving unfair subsidies and dumping the product in the U.S. The U.S. is imposing duties from 49% to 106% on Chinese aluminum foil for selling the product in the U.S. below fair market value, Commerce said. The Trump administration also set duties of 17% to 81% for the unfair subsidies that the U.S. has concluded Chinese producers receive. The issue now goes before the U.S. International Trade Commission, which is expected to have the final say on the injury claims in a vote scheduled for March 15, the Aluminum Association, which is based in Virginia, said in an emailed statement. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.S: Consumer confidence rises to 17-year high on tax cuts, jobs. U.S. consumer confidence jumped as optimism about employment prospects grew and Americans began seeing additional money in their paychecks from recently enacted tax cuts, data from the New York-based Conference Board showed. Confidence index rose to 130.8, highest since Nov. 2000, from downwardly revised 124.3 in January. Present conditions measure climbed to 162.4, highest since 2001, from 154.7. Consumer expectations gauge increased to three-month high of 109.7 from 104. (Source: Bloomberg)

China: A weighted average of flash PMIs for major trade partners edged down fractionally in February on declines in manufacturing gauges in Japan and the euro zone. The reading came in at 56.7, down from 57.0 in January and 57.1 in December -- which was the highest reading since April 2010. Even so, that suggests growth in external demand for Chinese goods remains elevated. The index is a composite of U.S., euro-area and Japan flash manufacturing PMIs, weighted by each economy's share of China's exports. It tracks well with Caixin's new export orders index, with a correlation of 0.7. (Source: Bloomberg)

Japan: Industrial production falls more than expected in January as manufacturers eased back on production in anticipation of the Lunar New Year holiday in Asia in February. Industrial production fell 6.6% MoM in January from December, when it rose 2.9% MoM. Year-on-year output increased 2.7% YoY. (Source: Bloomberg)

Other News:

Tropicana: Buys land, plans to build resort. The group is acquiring Marivaux Holdings S/B which owns 112 acres of land near Genting Highlands, Pahang, for MYR78.25m. It will undertake a resort-type project on the land, which is situated at 3,000 feet above sea level. Separately, Tropicana announced that its fourth-quarter net profit ended Dec 31, 2017 more than doubled to MYR69.62m from MYR29.26m in the previous corresponding period, driven by increased efficiency and productivity as well as advanced progress made in many of its projects. (Source: The Sun Daily)

CCM Duopharma Biotech: Proposes four-for-three bonus issue, dividend reinvestment plan. The group has proposed to issue up to 371.95m bonus shares on the basis of four bonus shares for every three CCM shares held. Concurrently, CCM proposed a dividend reinvestment plan to convert its dividend to new CCM shares, with the issue price to be determined later. Its 4QFY17 net profit was up 40% YoY to MYR11.87m from MYR8.43m, as revenue grew 52% YoY to MYR112.25m from MYR74.03m. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Ekovest: 2Q earnings rise on EkoCheras contribution. Ekovest saw its net profit for the second quarter ended Dec 31, 2017 rise by 33.85% to MYR54.92m from MYR41.03m a year ago on the back of higher sales recognition for the EkoCheras project which has seen advancement in work progress. Ekovest is proposing to take over Iskandar Waterfront City Bhd (IWCity) from minority shareholders for either cash of MYR1.50 or in exchange for one Ekovest share. (Source: The Sun Daily)

Press Metal: 4Q net profit up 14%, pays 1.5sen dividend. Its net profit went up almost 14% to MYR150.19m in 4QFY17 from MYR131.78m last year thanks to higher metal price. Its quarterly revenue was 7.22% higher at MYR2.14b, compared with MYR2b a year ago. Press Metal declared a fourth interim single tier dividend of 1.5 sen for FY17. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

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