FW: Indonesia's Trade Outlook February 2018

 

 

Trade Performance: “Seasonal Effect”

 

       Exports in December 2017 fell to US$ 14.79 bn (down by 3.45% m-o-m). Meanwhile imports in December 2017 also decreased to US$ 15.06 bn (down by 0.29% m-o-m). The falling of exports was caused by the slowing demand in the end of year (seasonal). Furthermore, the monthly decreased in exports in December 2017 due to the fall in the export of palm oil, machinery/mechanical appliance, machinery/electrical appliance, vehicles & parts, and jewelry/gems. The fall in the month-on-month imports mainly due to the decrease in the import of machinery/mechanical appliance, plastics & the articles there of, vehicles & parts, chemical organic, and optical devices. On a yearly basis, exports still rose by 6.93% y-o-y in December 2017, while imports also increased by 17.83% y-o-y. The rise in the year-on-year exports indicates demand for Indonesia's exports in December 2017 was higher than in December 2016. The increased in the year-on-year imports suggests relatively improving domestic activity in December 2017, compare than in December 2016.

 

       We expect the Indonesia’s exports decrease in January 2018. The decrease was caused by seasonal factors which every beginning of the year demand from the main countries of Indonesian exports declined. In addition, the domestic economic activity is still slow. We expect Indonesia’s exports will decreased to US$ 14.38 billion in January 2018 compared with US$ 14.79 billion in previous month.

 

       In the meantime, we also expect Indonesia’s imports fall in January 2018. The decrease was caused by seasonal factors, namely the beginning of each year in domestic economic activity is still slow. As a result, the need for imported goods is still low. We expect Indonesia’s imports may decrease to US$ 14.32 billion in January 2018 compared with US$ 15.06 billion in the previous month. Consequently, Indonesia’s trade balance is expected to surplus US$ 0.06 billion in January 2018, better than a deficit US$ 0.27 billion in one month earlier.

 

 

Regards,

 

Juniman

Chief Economist

PT Bank Maybank Indonesia Tbk

Sentral Senayan III, 8th Floor

Jl. Asia Afrika No. 8, Gelora Bung Karno

Jakarta 10270, Indonesia

Tel  : +62 21 29228888 Ext.29682

Fax  : +62 21 29228849

Juniman@maybank.co.id

 

 

 

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