|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR4.36
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR4.55
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4Q15
outperformed but revised GITP budget negatively surprised
|
|
4Q15 results and dividends outperformed our expectations.
Going forward, we are sanguine on Genting UK (GENUK) and Resorts World
Bimini (RWB). In fact, we gather that RWB may finally break-even soon.
That said, we are taken aback by the revised Genting Integrated Tourism
Plan (GITP) budget. Therefore, we trim our earnings estimates by 4% and
TP by 4% to MYR4.55. At this juncture, we are unsure if such a large
investment will be worthwhile. Cut from BUY to HOLD.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
8,229.4
|
8,395.9
|
9,677.2
|
11,087.6
|
|
EBITDA
|
2,247.6
|
2,153.5
|
2,768.9
|
3,173.1
|
|
Core net profit
|
1,358.1
|
1,256.4
|
1,390.7
|
1,599.3
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
23.9
|
22.2
|
24.5
|
28.2
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(20.8)
|
(7.4)
|
10.6
|
15.0
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
6.5
|
7.1
|
7.9
|
9.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
18.2
|
19.7
|
17.8
|
15.5
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.5
|
1.3
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
1.5
|
1.6
|
1.8
|
2.1
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
8.6
|
7.1
|
7.1
|
7.8
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
6.7
|
5.2
|
5.0
|
5.6
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
9.7
|
11.5
|
8.4
|
7.3
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
0.1
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR8.10
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR8.90
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Decent end to
2015
|
|
4Q15 results were within our expectation. 2015 was marred
by low VIP hold rates, bad debts, low FFB output and high production
cost. In 2016, we are hopeful all the aforementioned will turnaround
for the better. Resorts World Bimini (RWB) may even break-even in
md-2016. While we are taken aback by the larger Genting Integrated
Tourism Plan (GITP) budget, our SOP-based TP is trimmed by only 2% to
MYR8.90. Maintain BUY call. There is more upside potential if 21%-owned
TauRX is listed.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
18,216.5
|
18,100.4
|
19,368.0
|
21,874.1
|
|
EBITDA
|
6,627.5
|
5,685.4
|
6,793.8
|
8,524.9
|
|
Core net profit
|
1,777.4
|
1,524.2
|
1,785.4
|
2,670.6
|
|
Core FDEPS (sen)
|
46.2
|
40.9
|
43.4
|
63.2
|
|
Core FDEPS growth(%)
|
1.5
|
(11.5)
|
6.1
|
45.8
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
4.0
|
3.5
|
3.7
|
5.4
|
|
Core FD P/E (x)
|
17.5
|
19.8
|
18.7
|
12.8
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.1
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
0.8
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
0.5
|
0.4
|
0.5
|
0.7
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
6.8
|
5.1
|
5.3
|
7.5
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
2.5
|
1.9
|
2.0
|
2.9
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
7.3
|
7.9
|
7.0
|
5.6
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR13.08
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR14.40
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MSS costs
feature in 2Q results
|
|
While BOC continues to be a drag on group earnings, HL
Bank’s domestic operations continue to expand at a decent pace with
stable loan growth and margins, as well as strong asset quality. Having
completed its rights issue, the group is also one of the most
well-capitalized in the industry. We maintain a BUY on HL Bank with a
lower TP of MYR14.40 (MYR14.59 previously) on a 2016 P/BV target of
1.4x (ROE: 10.2%) after adjusting our earnings forecasts.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Jun (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Operating income
|
4,039.1
|
4,066.9
|
4,365.2
|
4,609.8
|
|
Pre-provision profit
|
2,246.8
|
2,253.1
|
2,498.6
|
2,769.4
|
|
Core net profit
|
2,102.3
|
2,233.2
|
2,094.8
|
2,198.4
|
|
Core EPS (MYR)
|
1.23
|
1.31
|
1.09
|
1.05
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
12.8
|
5.9
|
(16.2)
|
(3.7)
|
|
Net DPS (MYR)
|
0.41
|
0.41
|
0.34
|
0.35
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
10.6
|
10.0
|
12.0
|
12.4
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.7
|
1.5
|
1.3
|
1.3
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.1
|
3.1
|
2.6
|
2.7
|
|
Book value (MYR)
|
7.73
|
8.93
|
9.73
|
10.18
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
15.3
|
14.3
|
11.1
|
10.2
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
1.3
|
1.3
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR14.14
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR16.30
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1H results
within expectations
|
|
Based on current price levels, HLFG’s 64% stake in HL Bank
is valued at MYR17.3b, which is 7% higher than HLFG’s market cap of
MYR16.2b. This implies that HLFG is still a cheaper entry into HL Bank,
and that there is little value that the market is attaching to HLFG’s
insurance businesses. We prefer HLFG (BUY) to HL Bank with a slightly
higher SOP-based TP of MYR16.30 (+10sen).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Jun (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Operating income
|
4,549.2
|
4,490.9
|
4,732.2
|
4,990.3
|
|
Pre-provision profit
|
2,583.1
|
2,490.7
|
2,503.8
|
2,956.0
|
|
Core net profit
|
1,706.9
|
1,576.2
|
1,604.0
|
1,624.0
|
|
Core FDEPS (MYR)
|
1.63
|
1.51
|
1.54
|
1.55
|
|
Core FDEPS growth(%)
|
14.7
|
(7.7)
|
1.8
|
1.2
|
|
Net DPS (MYR)
|
0.38
|
0.38
|
0.32
|
0.33
|
|
Core FD P/E (x)
|
8.7
|
9.4
|
9.2
|
9.1
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.3
|
1.1
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
2.7
|
2.7
|
2.3
|
2.3
|
|
Book value (MYR)
|
10.90
|
12.45
|
13.74
|
14.83
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
15.8
|
12.8
|
11.1
|
9.9
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
0.9
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
0.7
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR3.39
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR4.15
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Marginally below
expectations
|
|
Blip in RF division in 2Q-3QFY6/16 is temporary as
smartphone players rationalise their existing stockpile in preparation
for new launches. Whilst there are some downside risk to earnings from
this, we keep our forecasts unchanged pending an analyst briefing
today. Inari’s outlook remains intact with potential new job win
following its latest plant acquisition. Maintain BUY; MYR4.15 TP (17x
CY17 PER) is unchanged.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Jun (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
793.7
|
933.1
|
1,344.6
|
1,397.8
|
|
EBITDA
|
134.8
|
187.3
|
259.0
|
291.1
|
|
Core net profit
|
102.8
|
151.5
|
206.5
|
221.2
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
11.3
|
16.3
|
21.3
|
22.8
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
138.9
|
43.9
|
30.5
|
7.1
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
6.8
|
8.9
|
8.5
|
9.1
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
29.9
|
20.8
|
15.9
|
14.9
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
11.9
|
5.9
|
5.0
|
4.1
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
2.0
|
2.6
|
2.5
|
2.7
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
49.4
|
38.1
|
34.4
|
30.3
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
23.6
|
22.7
|
22.2
|
20.2
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
15.6
|
11.9
|
12.1
|
10.5
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
6.7
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR5.53
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR7.35
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Record profit;
no surprises
|
|
Globetronics achieved yet another record earnings in 2015
as growth in the sensor division outweighs weakness in the rest; within
expectations. Our forecasts are unchanged; 2016 will be a year of two
halves with a weak 1H to be offset by a strong 2H after the launch of
the 3D-imaging sensor. Recent share price weakness is an opportunity to
add. Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of MYR7.35 on 17x CY17 PER
target.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
355.0
|
343.7
|
414.5
|
524.5
|
|
EBITDA
|
108.6
|
97.5
|
125.0
|
157.4
|
|
Core net profit
|
64.4
|
71.3
|
92.6
|
121.5
|
|
Core FDEPS (sen)
|
22.9
|
25.3
|
32.8
|
43.1
|
|
Core FDEPS growth(%)
|
20.7
|
10.4
|
29.6
|
31.2
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
23.0
|
23.0
|
29.6
|
38.8
|
|
Core FD P/E (x)
|
24.1
|
21.8
|
16.8
|
12.8
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
5.5
|
5.2
|
5.0
|
4.8
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
4.2
|
4.2
|
5.4
|
7.0
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
23.0
|
24.4
|
30.4
|
38.6
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
18.5
|
20.0
|
25.3
|
31.6
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
9.7
|
17.0
|
11.2
|
9.0
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR2.47
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR2.70
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Further clarity
required
|
|
FY15 net profit came in below expectations primarily due
to a MYR18m impairment charge (of receivables) in 4Q15. The impairment
is sizable when compared to previous years (usually below MYR0.5m
p.a.), and thus requires some explanation. Our forecasts, rating and TP
are largely unchanged for now, pending clarification from management.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
2,773.5
|
3,619.0
|
4,633.8
|
5,501.2
|
|
EBITDA
|
258.1
|
191.0
|
226.8
|
237.5
|
|
Core net profit
|
167.6
|
106.2
|
128.1
|
128.6
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
13.1
|
8.3
|
10.0
|
10.0
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(2.2)
|
(36.7)
|
20.7
|
0.3
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
13.1
|
8.3
|
10.0
|
10.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
18.9
|
29.9
|
24.7
|
24.7
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
3.1
|
3.3
|
3.3
|
3.3
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
5.3
|
3.3
|
4.0
|
4.1
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
16.6
|
10.7
|
13.2
|
13.2
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
10.2
|
5.5
|
5.8
|
5.3
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
14.6
|
14.9
|
13.4
|
13.0
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR2.89
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR3.76
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Results likely
to be strong
|
|
SP Setia’s (SPSB) FY15 results, to be released on 25 Feb,
could surprise on the upside. The group is also on track to meet its
14MFY15 sales target of MYR4b. We adjust our FY15/16/17 earnings
forecasts by +19%/ +20%/-4%. Our RNAV-TP is however trimmed to MYR3.76
(-10sen, on 30% discount to RNAV) due to a larger share base. Reiterate
BUY for its earnings defensiveness.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY13A
|
FY14A
|
FY15E
|
FY16E
|
|
Revenue
|
3,060.5
|
3,810.1
|
6,868.3
|
4,559.3
|
|
EBITDA
|
673.3
|
1,107.6
|
1,511.0
|
1,003.0
|
|
Core net profit
|
417.9
|
376.0
|
873.2
|
538.4
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
17.9
|
14.9
|
33.2
|
20.5
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(7.7)
|
(17.2)
|
123.7
|
(38.3)
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
10.6
|
9.7
|
19.9
|
12.3
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
16.1
|
19.5
|
8.7
|
14.1
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.7
|
3.4
|
6.9
|
4.3
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
8.7
|
6.6
|
14.5
|
8.5
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
3.8
|
2.9
|
6.1
|
3.6
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
13.8
|
10.1
|
6.9
|
11.0
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
41.4
|
32.5
|
31.8
|
39.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR6.75
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR6.50
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cautious on
forex scare
|
|
4Q15 results within expectations and we maintain our
earnings forecasts. However, we reduce our TP to MYR6.50 (-36%) as we
lower our PER target to its mean of 16x on 2017 EPS given the
volatility in forex. Downgrade Kossan to HOLD (from BUY) but advocate investors
to accumulate if there is further sell-down as fundamentals of the
company remain sound.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,299.3
|
1,635.9
|
1,925.8
|
2,230.8
|
|
EBITDA
|
247.9
|
343.2
|
391.4
|
445.0
|
|
Core net profit
|
143.8
|
203.3
|
229.7
|
259.4
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
22.5
|
31.8
|
35.9
|
40.6
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
5.4
|
41.4
|
13.0
|
12.9
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
7.0
|
12.7
|
18.0
|
20.3
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
30.0
|
21.2
|
18.8
|
16.6
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
5.4
|
4.4
|
3.9
|
3.5
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
1.0
|
1.9
|
2.7
|
3.0
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
19.0
|
22.7
|
22.1
|
22.3
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
12.1
|
14.8
|
14.6
|
14.6
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
12.0
|
17.4
|
11.3
|
10.0
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
11.2
|
1.7
|
5.9
|
7.3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR2.81
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR3.65
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Proxy to infra
growth in Sarawak
|
|
Stronger 2QFY6/16 results was within expectations, driven
by its logistics business. Maintain earnings forecasts, but there could
be earnings upside if Baleh hydro-dam kicks-off. Additionally, its
proposed corporate exercises (bonus issue, free warrants) are
sweeteners to investors (entitlement in mid-Mar 2016). Maintain BUY
with an unchanged RNAV-based TP of MYR3.65.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Jun (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
457.6
|
507.0
|
584.8
|
601.3
|
|
EBITDA
|
75.3
|
97.4
|
127.0
|
117.8
|
|
Core net profit
|
33.4
|
48.2
|
58.5
|
56.1
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
18.4
|
26.5
|
32.2
|
30.8
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
9.0
|
44.2
|
21.5
|
(4.2)
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
2.5
|
5.5
|
6.4
|
6.2
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
15.3
|
10.6
|
8.7
|
9.1
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
2.2
|
1.8
|
1.7
|
1.5
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
0.9
|
2.0
|
2.3
|
2.2
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
15.5
|
18.9
|
20.0
|
17.1
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
7.2
|
9.0
|
9.8
|
8.9
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
5.3
|
5.1
|
4.0
|
3.9
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
16.1
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR74.58
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR73.00
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FY15 results in
line
|
|
Despite flat revenue growth, NESZ’s FY15 earnings growth
(+7% YoY) was supported by more favourable raw material prices, lower
taxes, and cost saving initiatives. A final DPS of 110sen and a special
of 20sen was a surprise. Into FY16, domestic operations could remain
challenging on weaker consumer sentiment. However, this could be
partially buffered by growing export sales. We maintain HOLD on NESZ
but raised our DCF-TP to MYR73.00 (from MYR68.80) on rolling forward
valuations.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
4,808.9
|
4,838.0
|
5,128.2
|
5,528.2
|
|
EBITDA
|
837.2
|
886.0
|
968.7
|
1,033.2
|
|
Core net profit
|
550.4
|
590.7
|
614.7
|
654.0
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
234.7
|
251.9
|
262.1
|
278.9
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(2.0)
|
7.3
|
4.1
|
6.4
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
235.0
|
260.0
|
259.5
|
276.1
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
31.8
|
29.6
|
28.5
|
26.7
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
22.5
|
24.7
|
24.5
|
24.2
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.2
|
3.5
|
3.5
|
3.7
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
69.1
|
79.5
|
86.4
|
91.1
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
25.1
|
24.7
|
24.0
|
24.2
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
19.4
|
19.8
|
18.4
|
17.2
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
20.4
|
47.4
|
42.9
|
36.1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR2.18
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR2.00
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2QFY16 within
expectations
|
|
2QFY6/16 results were within our expectations but above
consensus’. The higher YoY and QoQ earnings were mainly driven by
aggressive promotions, Christmas shopping and new outlets’
contribution. A third interim net DPS of 2.5sen was in line. Maintain
HOLD with an unchanged MYR2.00 TP (pegged to 10.5x CY16 PER) and CY16
net yield of 4.6%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Jun (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
866.3
|
977.9
|
1,262.9
|
1,399.4
|
|
EBITDA
|
147.6
|
145.3
|
194.8
|
215.7
|
|
Core net profit
|
90.9
|
80.2
|
120.1
|
132.1
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
13.8
|
12.2
|
18.3
|
20.1
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
6.5
|
(11.8)
|
49.7
|
10.0
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
11.5
|
10.0
|
10.0
|
10.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
15.8
|
17.9
|
11.9
|
10.9
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
3.7
|
3.5
|
3.1
|
2.7
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
5.3
|
4.6
|
4.6
|
4.6
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
23.9
|
20.2
|
27.7
|
26.6
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
16.8
|
13.7
|
18.5
|
17.8
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
8.0
|
4.6
|
6.2
|
5.4
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR4.70
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR5.30
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4Q15 results in
line
|
|
FY15 results were within expectations. 8% growth in FY15
earnings were mainly supported by lower raw material costs, amid flat
revenue growth (+1%). A final DPS of 14sen takes FY15 DPS to 26sen
(DPR: 65%), in line. Into 2016, if raw sugar costs continue to creep
up, MSM may face some margin pressure as it could be more challenging
to pass on price increases in view of the overall softer environment.
Maintain our forecasts, HOLD call and TP of MYR5.30 (14x FY16 PER).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
2,281.5
|
2,307.3
|
2,400.9
|
2,443.6
|
|
EBITDA
|
383.4
|
389.6
|
448.2
|
491.8
|
|
Core net profit
|
257.0
|
276.6
|
264.8
|
251.8
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
36.6
|
39.3
|
37.7
|
35.8
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
1.5
|
7.6
|
(4.2)
|
(4.9)
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
24.0
|
26.0
|
22.6
|
21.5
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
12.9
|
11.9
|
12.5
|
13.1
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.7
|
1.6
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
5.1
|
5.5
|
4.8
|
4.6
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
13.5
|
13.9
|
12.6
|
11.5
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
11.0
|
10.6
|
8.8
|
7.1
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
9.6
|
9.7
|
9.0
|
8.9
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
10.4
|
14.8
|
33.3
|
48.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR2.41
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR2.60
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Below
expectations
|
|
TCM’s 4Q15 core results came in the red for the first
time, marred by higher imported component costs (~27%-30% of COGS) due
to a weaker MYR. We cut our FY16/17 forecasts to account for softer
sales and higher costs. As a result, our TP is marginally lowered to
MYR2.60 (-2%) based on an unchanged 0.6x FY16 NTA peg, which reflects
the challenging outlook ahead. Valuations are fair at 0.6x P/BV;
maintain HOLD.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
4,760.6
|
5,716.7
|
6,435.6
|
6,776.7
|
|
EBITDA
|
330.7
|
302.4
|
238.2
|
306.4
|
|
Core net profit
|
68.6
|
51.7
|
43.0
|
88.7
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
10.5
|
7.9
|
6.6
|
13.6
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(76.6)
|
(24.6)
|
(16.8)
|
106.1
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
6.0
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
22.9
|
30.4
|
36.6
|
17.7
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
2.5
|
2.1
|
2.1
|
2.1
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
2.5
|
1.9
|
1.5
|
3.1
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
1.4
|
1.0
|
0.8
|
1.7
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
9.7
|
10.0
|
11.0
|
8.4
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
37.0
|
45.5
|
36.2
|
33.3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.05
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.16
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kitchen sinking
4Q15
|
|
While the kitchen sinking exercise was expected in 4Q15,
the core loss was higher than earlier anticipated. The outlook for rigs
is tough and UMWOG is expected to remain in the red but this bearish
sentiment has been priced in, in our view. Our earnings forecasts are
unchanged. We reiterate our non-consensus trading BUY call with a lower
TP of MYR1.16 (-7%) as we roll forward our valuations to 2016 on
unchanged 1x EV/replacement value peg.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,014.9
|
839.5
|
781.7
|
781.5
|
|
EBITDA
|
412.8
|
259.0
|
151.5
|
150.7
|
|
Core net profit
|
248.5
|
(51.9)
|
(135.8)
|
(127.2)
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
11.5
|
(2.4)
|
(6.3)
|
(5.9)
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
49.3
|
nm
|
nm
|
nm
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
100.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
9.1
|
(43.7)
|
(16.7)
|
(17.8)
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
95.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
8.2
|
(1.6)
|
(4.1)
|
(4.0)
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
5.2
|
(0.8)
|
(1.8)
|
(1.8)
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
14.9
|
20.7
|
34.6
|
34.5
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
33.7
|
90.3
|
91.9
|
94.1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SECTOR RESEARCH
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan 2016 TIV plummeted 36% MoM and 12% YoY to 44.6k
units (lowest in the last 47 months) as consumers had frontloaded
purchases prior to price hikes beginning Jan 2016. Our 2016 TIV
forecast of 645k units (-3% YoY) is unchanged. For now, sector
valuations are just about fair (14.7x CY16 PER). BAuto is our only
BUY call.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MACRO RESEARCH
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Economics Research
by
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Headline CPI continued to decline in Jan 2016 by -0.6%
YoY (Dec 2015: -0.6% YoY) while core inflation stays in positive
territory at +0.4% YoY (Dec 2015: +0.3% YoY). MAS adjusted their
headline inflation forecast for 2016 to between -1.0% and 0.0% (from -0.5%
and 0.5% previously) while maintaining the core inflation forecast at
+0.5-1.5%. Our headline inflation rate forecast for 2016 stays at
+0.5%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
Zamros
Dzulkafli
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Technical Research
by Lee
Cheng Hooi
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AFG – On a very firm Wave 3 and 5 surge. FBMKLCI –
Index edged up slowly. Supports of 1,656 and 1,677 will be areas to
buy. Resistances of 1,680 and 1,700 may cap any rebound.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEWS
|
|
|
Outside Malaysia:
U.S: Consumer confidence sinks to seven-month low in
February as households grew more concerned about the outlook for the
economy and jobs, sending their inflation forecast to a nine-year low.
The Conference Board’s sentiment index slid to 92.2 this month, from a
revised 97.8 in January, the New York-based private research group said.
The survey reflected responses received through Feb. 11, the day the
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index sank to an almost two-year low. (Source:
Bloomberg)
U.S: Sales of existing homes in January rise to
second-highest since 2007, indicating the industry will keep prospering.
Closings, which usually take place a month or two after a contract is
signed, advanced 0.4% to a 5.47 million annual rate, the National
Association of Realtors reported. Prices climbed from January 2015 as the
number of dwellings on the market fell. (Source: Bloomberg)
Brazil: Inflation unexpectedly jumps to highest since
2003. Brazil’s annual inflation surprised analysts by accelerating in the
month through mid-February after the central bank refrained from raising
borrowing costs and the government proposed loosening its fiscal targets.
Annual inflation as measured by the IPCA-15 index unexpectedly quickened
to 10.84% YoY -- its highest level since November 2003 -- from 10.74%
YoY, the national statistics agency said. (Source: Bloomberg)
Germany: Investment and domestic consumption led economic
growth in the final quarter of 2015 as an external slowdown weighed on
trade. Capital investment rose 1.5% in the three months through December,
up from a revised 0.1% the previous quarter, the Federal Statistics
Office in Wiesbaden said. Government spending jumped 1%, after 0.5%
previously. Growth in private spending slowed to 0.3% from 0.6%. Net
trade dragged on the economy as imports rose and exports fell. GDP
expanded 0.3%. The investment gain may signal that rock-bottom interest
rates and record-low unemployment are persuading companies to bolster
their capacity to take advantage of rising domestic consumption. (Source:
Bloomberg)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other News:
Fitch affirms Malaysia at ‘A-‘ with stable outlook. Fitch
Ratings has affirmed Malaysia’s long-term foreign-and-local-currency
issuer default ratings (IDR) at “A-“ and “A” respectively, with stable
outlooks. The stable outlooks reflect its assessment that upside and
down-side risk to the ratings are currently broadly balanced. However, it
warned that factors that could lead to a negative rating action are a
sustained deterioration in fiscal discipline and the public finances,
leading to a sharper rise in government debt rations than Fitch current
expects. Fitch also pointed out that Malaysia’s governance is a weakness
relative to other sovereigns in the “A” rating range. (Source: The Edge
Financial Daily)
Yong Tai: Construction of Impression City in Melaka to
begin in 3Q. Phase 1 of Impression City which spans 117 acres, mostly
comprising retail and commercial properties is likely to begin
construction in the third quarter of the year. The 10-year project will
be developed in 11 phases which have a total GDV of MYR5.4b and expected
to generate a profit margin of 20%. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)
Mitrajaya: Bags MYR157.3m job. Its subsidiary, Pembinaan
Mitrajaya Sdn Bhd has been awarded a MYR157.3m deal by Putrajaya Homes
Sdn Bhd for the construction and completion of 800 units of public
apartments “Perumahan Pejawat Awam 1 Malaysia” inclusive of two blocks of
multi-level car park and common facilities at Precint 17, Putrajaya. The
contract runs for 36 months and is expected to be completed by Feb 22, 2019.
(Source: The Sun Daily)
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