|
FEATURE
CALLS
|
|
Malaysia | Gamuda
Weakness offers
opportunity
Li Shin Chai
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gamuda (GAM MK)
by Li Shin
Chai
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR4.47
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR5.65
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Weakness offers
opportunity
|
|
Gamuda is a key beneficiary of the upcoming mega
infrastructure project awards. We estimate its potential job wins in
2016 could rise to MYR10b and lift its outstanding order book to
another record high. We tweak our SOP; our new TP is MYR5.65 (from MYR6.00),
diluted for recent warrants. The share price is down 4.7% in 2015 and
3.2% 2016 YTD while foreign shareholding has fallen below GFC levels.
The current weakness in its share price is an opportunity to raise
holdings.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Jul (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
4,636.4
|
2,399.9
|
2,587.7
|
3,116.7
|
|
EBITDA
|
775.2
|
638.0
|
770.0
|
828.0
|
|
Core net profit
|
712.2
|
682.1
|
663.9
|
701.1
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
31.0
|
28.9
|
27.6
|
29.1
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
4.9
|
(6.6)
|
(4.6)
|
5.6
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
12.0
|
12.0
|
12.0
|
12.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
14.4
|
15.4
|
16.2
|
15.3
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.9
|
1.7
|
1.7
|
1.6
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
2.7
|
2.7
|
2.7
|
2.7
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
13.8
|
11.6
|
10.5
|
10.7
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
7.6
|
5.8
|
4.9
|
4.9
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
17.2
|
22.7
|
18.6
|
17.5
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
30.1
|
43.7
|
49.8
|
47.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR6.18
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR5.10
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Sell
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Uninspiring
outlook; D/G to SELL
|
|
4Q15 core net loss (excluding non-cash and one-offs) of
MYR67.6m (vs. a profit of MYR39.8m in 4Q14) fell short of ours and
consensus forecasts. Cost spikes have largely contributed to this weak
performance. 2016 outlook fails to inspire much optimism as traffic
growth would be slow (+3%) and costs continue to spiral up. Downgrade
to SELL (from HOLD) with a revised TP of MYR5.10 (from MYR5.45) on an
unchanged peg to FY16 P/BV of 0.9x.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
3,343.7
|
3,871.0
|
4,116.2
|
4,393.2
|
|
EBITDA
|
815.4
|
1,679.1
|
1,722.9
|
1,869.6
|
|
Core net profit
|
149.0
|
(145.8)
|
50.8
|
129.7
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
11.1
|
(9.2)
|
3.2
|
8.2
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(62.3)
|
nm
|
nm
|
155.3
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
2.8
|
0.0
|
0.8
|
2.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
55.8
|
(67.4)
|
193.5
|
75.8
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
0.4
|
0.0
|
0.1
|
0.3
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
2.2
|
(1.8)
|
0.6
|
1.4
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
0.9
|
(0.7)
|
0.2
|
0.6
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
15.8
|
8.1
|
8.1
|
7.4
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
58.6
|
52.2
|
47.1
|
43.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR5.90
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR6.10
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Uncertainties
|
|
Axiata’s FY15 net profit was below expectations despite
EBITDA being in-line. Concerns centre on 1) Celcom’s poor 4Q15
operational trends and 2) a potential review of Axiata’s dividend
practices. Given the various overhangs, we downgrade the stock to HOLD (from
BUY) with a lower TP of MYR6.10 following our earnings revisions.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
18,711.8
|
19,883.5
|
21,504.9
|
22,901.1
|
|
EBITDA
|
6,998.6
|
7,284.1
|
7,959.1
|
8,550.1
|
|
Core net profit
|
2,239.0
|
2,071.0
|
2,438.4
|
2,816.9
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
26.1
|
23.9
|
27.8
|
32.1
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(15.8)
|
(8.6)
|
16.4
|
15.5
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
22.0
|
20.0
|
23.6
|
27.3
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
22.6
|
24.7
|
21.2
|
18.4
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
2.4
|
2.2
|
2.2
|
2.1
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.7
|
3.4
|
4.0
|
4.6
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
11.1
|
9.4
|
10.3
|
11.7
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
4.8
|
3.9
|
4.3
|
4.9
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
10.1
|
9.4
|
8.2
|
7.7
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
42.3
|
46.3
|
48.4
|
47.7
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR56.08
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR55.00
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4Q15: In line,
U/G to HOLD
|
|
FY15 earnings were supported by the timing of A&P and
cost savings, which buffered the decline in revenue. We have tweaked
our earnings forecasts by -2%/-1% for FY16/17. With its share price
having declined 12% from the recent peak, we upgrade BAT to HOLD (from
SELL) but with a lower DCF-TP of MYR55 (MYR57 previously) on rolling
forward our valuations (7.1% WACC, 1.5% LT growth).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
4,796.0
|
4,581.5
|
4,703.9
|
4,476.7
|
|
EBITDA
|
1,277.0
|
1,277.3
|
1,287.1
|
1,224.8
|
|
Core net profit
|
910.0
|
914.5
|
921.3
|
876.7
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
318.7
|
320.3
|
322.7
|
307.1
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
10.5
|
0.5
|
0.7
|
(4.8)
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
309.0
|
312.0
|
315.9
|
300.6
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
17.6
|
17.5
|
17.4
|
18.3
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
30.5
|
29.3
|
28.3
|
27.4
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
5.5
|
5.6
|
5.6
|
5.4
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
176.3
|
170.8
|
165.6
|
152.4
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
nm
|
nm
|
nm
|
nm
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
14.8
|
12.8
|
12.6
|
13.2
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
65.9
|
50.5
|
43.8
|
36.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR23.66
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR22.90
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lifted by
disposals, derivatives
|
|
Stripping MYR508m in land disposal gains, KLK’s 1QFY9/16
core PATMI was above our expectation and consensus. The
better-than-expected 1Q core result was mainly due to hedging gains,
but mitigated by forex losses. Maintain HOLD with a revised TP of
MYR22.90 (previously MYR22.24) on unchanged 23x FY17 PER peg as we
raise our FY16-18F core PATMI forecasts by 3-5%. KLK trades at a fair
23.8x FY17 PER.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Sep (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
11,130.0
|
13,650.0
|
14,364.2
|
16,187.9
|
|
EBITDA
|
1,728.1
|
1,578.0
|
1,680.8
|
1,879.7
|
|
Core net profit
|
984.8
|
818.7
|
910.2
|
1,059.3
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
92.3
|
76.7
|
85.3
|
99.2
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
10.4
|
(16.9)
|
11.2
|
16.4
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
55.0
|
45.0
|
51.2
|
59.5
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
25.6
|
30.8
|
27.7
|
23.8
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
3.3
|
2.6
|
2.4
|
2.3
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
2.3
|
1.9
|
2.2
|
2.5
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
12.9
|
9.4
|
9.0
|
9.9
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
8.0
|
5.4
|
5.1
|
5.8
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
14.2
|
16.6
|
16.7
|
14.9
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
20.8
|
26.0
|
21.9
|
20.8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MACRO RESEARCH
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Economics Research
by
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unemployment rate rose for the third consecutive month
to 3.3% in Dec 2015 (Nov 2015: 3.2%), highest since Jan 2014. In
2015, unemployment rate averaged 3.1% (2014: 2.9%). However, the
seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 3.1% in Dec 2015 from
3.3% in Nov 2015. We expect average unemployment rate in 2016 to edge
higher to 3.3%-3.4%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
Zamros
Dzulkafli
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Economics Research
by
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total exports and imports slumped -15.1% YoY (Dec
2015: -6.4% YoY) and -13.6% YoY (Dec 2015: -10.6% YoY) respectively,
while trade surplus widened to +SGD6.1b (Dec 2015: +SGD5.2b). A
positive from the otherwise dismal trade numbers was retained imports
of intermediate goods, which accelerated on a three month moving
average to +13.9% YoY (Dec 2015: +0.4% YoY), suggesting momentum in
inventory buildup that is promising for industrial output and exports
going forward.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
Zamros
Dzulkafli
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Technical Research
by Lee
Cheng Hooi
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
A minor before
1,670 pause
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The FBMKLCI lost 0.67 points to close at 1,664.32
yesterday, while the FBMEMAS and FBM100 gained 14.70 points and 13.06
points, respectively. In terms of market breadth, the gainer-to-loser
ratio was 441-to-402, while 335 counters were unchanged. A total of
1.75b shares were traded valued at MYR1.62b.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEWS
|
|
|
Outside Malaysia:
U.S: Minutes show Fed setting up for slower rate path at
March FOMC. Federal Reserve officials are already signaling why they
might lower forecasts for growth, inflation and the path of future
interest rates when they meet next month. Minutes from the January
Federal Open Market Committee meeting released show that officials were
worried about a series of drags and disruptions that are likely to derail
their December projection of four rate increases this year. First,
China’s slowdown remains a big risk for global growth. Even if the Fed
doesn’t have clarity on the outlook for China when it meets next month,
tightening policy in the face of the possibility of a “sharper
deceleration” in world’s second- largest economy seemed a step too far
for many officials. Minutes from the January meeting noted that such a
“downshift” could increase financial stress in emerging markets and,
importantly, in the economies of big U.S. trading partners such as Mexico
and Canada. (Source: Bloomberg)
U.S: Manufacturing production increases by most since
July. U.S. manufacturing output rose in January by the most since July
2015, a sign the industry was starting to stabilize at the beginning of
the year. The 0.5% MoM advance at factories, which make up 75% of all
production, followed a 0.2% MoM decrease the prior month, a Federal
Reserve report showed. Total output, which also includes mines and
utilities, jumped a larger-than-projected 0.9% MoM. (Source: Bloomberg)
U.S: Housing starts drop to lowest level in three months.
New-home construction in the U.S. unexpectedly cooled in January,
indicating there is a limit to how much gains in residential real estate
will boost growth at the start of 2016. Housing starts dropped 3.8% to a
1.1 million annualized rate, the weakest in three months, from a 1.14
million pace the prior month, a Commerce Department report showed.
Permits, a proxy for future construction, were little changed. (Source:
Bloomberg)
Brazil: Rating cut further into junk territory by S&P.
Brazil’s debt rating was cut deeper into junk territory by Standard &
Poor’s, which cited fiscal and political challenges for Latin America’s
largest economy. The long-term foreign-currency rating was reduced one
level to BB with a negative outlook, S&P said in a statement. The new
level, two steps below investment grade, puts Brazil on par with
countries including Bolivia, Paraguay and Guatemala. Brazil is in the
midst of its worst recession in more than a century after a tumble in
commodities and a slowdown in China, the country’s biggest trading
partner, sapped revenue from exports including oil, iron ore and
soybeans. The real has tumbled almost 30% in the past year, the worst
performance among major currencies worldwide, after the country lost its
investment-grade rating last year amid a record budget deficit and
political turmoil that has hampered efforts to make fiscal adjustments.
(Source: Bloomberg)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other News:
Sime Darby: Intends to sell properties worth USD500m. An
article in The wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing unnamed sources has
mentioned that Sime Darby intends to sell USD500m (MYR2.1b) worth of
property assets in Australia and Singapore to pare down its ballooning
debts. When contacted, the conglomerate did not deny such divestment plan
and did acknowledge that it is currently exploring options, including
real estate investment trust, to monetise its assets. (Source: The Edge
Financial Daily)
Zelan: Unit bags MYR307.37m job for Gombak transport
terminal works. Its wholly-owned subsidiary, Zelan Construction Sdn Bhd
has bagged a MYR307.37m contract from its 95% owned unit Terminal
Bersepadu Gombak Sdn Bhd to be the main contractor for the development of
the Gombak Integrated Transport Terminal (GITT) in Selangor. (Source: The
Edge Financial Daily)
Mega First: Fixes rights issue price at MYR1.59 per share.
The issue price for its rights issue has been fixed at MYR1.59 per share
to raise up to MYR250m in order to partly finance construction of a
hydropower plant in Laos. Shareholders of Mega First will be entitled to
seven rights shares for every 10 shares held as part of its renounceable
rights issue. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)
|
|
|
|
|
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.