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Share
Price:
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MYR3.56
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Target
Price:
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MYR4.20
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Recommendation:
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Buy
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3QFY16 results
within expectations
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We continue to like AFG for its niche SME focus and its
risk adjusted returns strategy, which is having a positive impact on
yields. Moreover, its CET1 ratio of >11% is one of the highest in
the industry. As one of our top picks in the sector, AFG is a BUY with
an unchanged TP of MYR4.20, pegged to a CY16 P/BV of 1.3x (CY16E ROE:
11.1%)
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FYE Mar (MYR m)
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FY14A
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FY15A
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FY16E
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FY17E
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Operating income
|
1,349.0
|
1,383.0
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1,453.3
|
1,513.7
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Pre-provision profit
|
720.8
|
736.1
|
770.0
|
806.0
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Core net profit
|
557.8
|
530.8
|
533.3
|
544.8
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Core FDEPS (MYR)
|
0.37
|
0.35
|
0.35
|
0.36
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Core FDEPS growth(%)
|
4.1
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(5.3)
|
0.5
|
2.1
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Net DPS (MYR)
|
0.29
|
0.15
|
0.17
|
0.17
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Core FD P/E (x)
|
9.7
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10.2
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10.2
|
10.0
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P/BV (x)
|
1.3
|
1.2
|
1.1
|
1.1
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Net dividend yield (%)
|
8.3
|
4.3
|
4.6
|
4.7
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Book value (MYR)
|
2.74
|
2.95
|
3.14
|
3.33
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ROAE (%)
|
13.6
|
12.3
|
11.5
|
11.0
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ROAA (%)
|
1.2
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1.0
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1.0
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1.0
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Ta Ann (TAH MK)
by Li Shin
Chai
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Share
Price:
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MYR5.64
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Target
Price:
|
MYR6.90
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Recommendation:
|
Buy
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Record annual
profit
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Ta Ann’s 4Q15 headline PATMI of MYR58m (+168% YoY, -14%
QoQ) brings 2015 PATMI to MYR186m (+66% YoY), meeting 113% of
our/consensus full year forecasts. The outperformance was due to
reversal in impairments. Core PATMI was however in line. Going forward,
potential earnings upside would emanate from higher CPO price and
further weakening of MYR, offsetting downside to log price. BUY at
unchanged MYR6.90 TP.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
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FY14A
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FY15A
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FY16E
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FY17E
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Revenue
|
1,020.7
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1,046.8
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1,084.8
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1,149.9
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EBITDA
|
243.2
|
323.9
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328.6
|
357.1
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Core net profit
|
110.6
|
185.9
|
167.6
|
183.4
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Core EPS (sen)
|
29.8
|
50.2
|
45.2
|
49.5
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Core EPS growth (%)
|
82.6
|
68.1
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(9.9)
|
9.4
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Net DPS (sen)
|
20.0
|
20.0
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20.3
|
22.3
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Core P/E (x)
|
18.9
|
11.2
|
12.5
|
11.4
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P/BV (x)
|
2.0
|
1.8
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1.6
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1.5
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Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.5
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3.5
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3.6
|
3.9
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ROAE (%)
|
10.7
|
16.6
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13.6
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13.8
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ROAA (%)
|
6.0
|
9.6
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8.3
|
8.7
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EV/EBITDA (x)
|
6.9
|
6.3
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6.8
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6.1
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Net debt/equity (%)
|
18.7
|
12.3
|
7.6
|
3.0
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Share
Price:
|
MYR11.00
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Target
Price:
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MYR10.00
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Recommendation:
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Hold
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Results
disappointed
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Core PATMI was below expectations as FFB output
disappointed towards 4Q15, hurt by earlier dry weather. Both plantation
(lower CPO ASP) and property (absence of lumpy land sales) divisions
recorded poorer full year results. While we look forward to a better
2016 earnings outlook, the stock lacks fresh catalyst. Trading at 27x
2016 PER, GENP is a HOLD with an unchanged RNAV-based TP of MYR10.00.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
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FY14A
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FY15A
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FY16E
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FY17E
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Revenue
|
1,642.9
|
1,374.9
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1,601.5
|
1,778.8
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EBITDA
|
562.6
|
358.7
|
512.0
|
638.3
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Core net profit
|
380.0
|
205.7
|
322.5
|
414.0
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Core EPS (sen)
|
49.3
|
26.3
|
41.2
|
52.9
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Core EPS growth (%)
|
22.7
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(46.7)
|
56.8
|
28.4
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Net DPS (sen)
|
10.0
|
5.5
|
8.2
|
10.6
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Core P/E (x)
|
22.3
|
41.9
|
26.7
|
20.8
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P/BV (x)
|
2.2
|
2.0
|
1.9
|
1.8
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Net dividend yield (%)
|
0.9
|
0.5
|
0.7
|
1.0
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ROAE (%)
|
10.4
|
5.1
|
7.4
|
8.9
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ROAA (%)
|
7.3
|
3.2
|
4.3
|
5.3
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EV/EBITDA (x)
|
14.1
|
26.3
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19.3
|
15.5
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Net debt/equity (%)
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net cash
|
20.5
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23.7
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22.3
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Share
Price:
|
MYR1.52
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Target
Price:
|
MYR1.63
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Recommendation:
|
Hold
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Nothing much
happening
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MPHB’s FY15 core results were within expectations but for
the third consecutive year, no dividend has been declared. As for
corporate developments, there is none that is new at this stage. Our
forecasts, HOLD call and RNAV-derived TP of MYR1.63 are maintained.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
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Revenue
|
370.1
|
380.8
|
388.4
|
396.2
|
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EBITDA
|
264.8
|
117.2
|
101.0
|
106.2
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Core net profit
|
54.1
|
43.4
|
40.2
|
43.5
|
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Core EPS (sen)
|
7.6
|
6.1
|
5.6
|
6.1
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Core EPS growth (%)
|
12.2
|
(19.9)
|
(7.2)
|
8.1
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Net DPS (sen)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
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Core P/E (x)
|
20.1
|
25.1
|
27.0
|
25.0
|
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P/BV (x)
|
0.8
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
0.7
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Net dividend yield (%)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
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ROAE (%)
|
4.5
|
3.0
|
2.5
|
2.6
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ROAA (%)
|
2.2
|
1.5
|
1.3
|
1.4
|
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EV/EBITDA (x)
|
3.5
|
3.6
|
3.4
|
2.9
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Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
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MACRO RESEARCH
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Corporate Day
by
Suhaimi Ilias
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Holding up at
over USD95b
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External reserves increased USD0.1b to USD95.6b
(MYR410.2b) at 15 Feb 2016 from USD95.5b (MYR410.1b) at 29 Jan 2016,
and have stayed above-USD95b since Dec 2015. Latest tally is
equivalent to 8.2 months of retained imports and 1.2x of short term
external debt. Portfolio flows are less of a pressure point amid
sustained current account surplus and indication of repatriations,
especially by the Government-linked investment funds.
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Suhaimi Ilias
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Zamros
Dzulkafli
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NEWS
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Outside Malaysia:
Mexico: Retail sales rose at slowest pace in a year in
December, rising less than forecast and fueling concern that domestic
demand, one of the economy’s strengths in recent months, may be eroding.
Retail sales climbed 3.4% YoY, Mexico’s statistics institute reported,
less than estimated 6.1% YoY increase. The 1.6% MoM drop from the
previous month was the biggest since 2013. (Source: Bloomberg)
E.U: The Euro Area is showing signs of strain from the
global slowdown. Weaker growth and deeper price cuts by companies, as
captured in a monthly report by Markit Economics published, will raise
concerns about the health of the economy. They may also increase pressure
on European Central Bank policy makers to add to stimulus at their next
meeting in March. Markit said that it’s composite Purchasing Managers
Index for the euro zone fell to 52.7 in February, the lowest in more than
a year, from 53.6. (Source: Bloomberg)
S. Korea: Exports are set to post another disappointing
month, with shipments during Feb. 1-20 falling 17% YoY, figures from the
customs office show. This undercuts projections from the government and
central bank that exports will break free from last year’s slump and rise
in 2016. (Source: Bloomberg)
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Other News:
Ekovest: Construction of Duke 2 within MYR1.18b cost. The
construction of Phase 2 of the Duta-Ulu Klang Expressway (Duke 2) remains
within the cost of MYR1.18b despite a weakened ringgit that has pushed up
raw material costs. According to Managing Director Datuk Seri Lim Keng
Cheng, majority of raw materials are sourced locally, with lower steel
prices and oil prices to help keep construction costs down. The project
is now 72% complete with full completion by year end. The group had also
submitted a proposal to the Kuala Lumpur City Hall (DBKL) to build Duke
2A, which will provide public access to Kampung Baru. Duke 2 currently
ends at Hospital Kuala Lumpur. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)
Ahmad Zaki Resources: Inks deal with Kwasa Land. It has
entered into a development rights agreement with master developer Kwasa
Land Sdn Bhd for the construction of the 162 units of high-rise twin
tower condominiums and 26 units of garden villas on the 3.91 acres of
land within the new Kwasa Damansara Township. The project has an
estimated GDV of MYR257m. (Source: The Sun Daily)
DBE Gurney Resources: To see Taiwanese partners take up
20% stake. Its Managing Director Alex Ding Seng Huat said his Taiwan
counterparts have expressed interest in investing in the integrated poultry
company, with the parties expected to be collaborating on secondary
processing of chickens and marketing of its value-added chicken products
via franchising. DBE Gurney expects the venture into downstream poultry
business to be able to earn an 18% gross margin, compared with the 5% to
10% margin the group is earning from its existing businesses. (Source:
The Edge Financial Daily)
Kim Teck Cheong Consolidated: Enters distribution
agreements with SCGM. Its subsidiaries Kim Teck Cheong Distribution Sdn
Bhd and Kim Teck Cheong (Sarawak) Sdn Bhd will undertake the distribution
and sale of finished products manufactured and sold by SCGM in Sabah and
Sarawak following a memorandum of understanding entered into by both
parties on Jan 21. No contract value was revealed. (Source: The Edge
Financial Daily)
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