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Share
Price:
|
MYR5.21
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Target
Price:
|
MYR5.25
|
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Recommendation:
|
Hold
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FY17 results
below expectations
|
|
AMMB’s 4QFYE3/17 results were below expectations but there
were several positive trends, including a dividend payout ratio that is
now a higher 40% versus 36% previously. We have trimmed our FY18/19 net
profit forecasts by 3% respectively, but our TP is raised marginally to
MYR5.25 from MYR5.00 on rolling forward valuations on an unchanged PBV
target of 0.9x (CY18E ROE: 8.4%).
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FYE Mar (MYR m)
|
FY16A
|
FY17A
|
FY18E
|
FY19E
|
|
Operating income
|
3,693.3
|
3,620.8
|
3,905.9
|
4,135.0
|
|
Pre-provision profit
|
1,519.0
|
1,460.4
|
1,702.9
|
1,871.2
|
|
Core net profit
|
1,355.9
|
1,216.5
|
1,389.3
|
1,449.5
|
|
Core EPS (MYR)
|
0.45
|
0.40
|
0.46
|
0.48
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(17.2)
|
(10.3)
|
13.9
|
4.3
|
|
Net DPS (MYR)
|
0.16
|
0.18
|
0.18
|
0.19
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
11.5
|
12.9
|
11.3
|
10.8
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.0
|
3.4
|
3.5
|
3.7
|
|
Book value (MYR)
|
5.03
|
5.32
|
5.59
|
5.88
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
9.2
|
7.8
|
8.4
|
8.4
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
1.0
|
1.0
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Share
Price:
|
MYR4.33
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR4.35
|
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Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
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A weaker 4QFY17
|
|
With a narrowed upside to our revised TP (share price +16%
YTD), we downgrade AFG to HOLD from BUY. While we continue to like the
stock for its niche in the SME segment, expenses are expected to pick
up in the near term as management invests in new products. We trim
earnings forecasts and expect ROEs to decline to about 9.8% in FY18
from 10.3% in FY17. Our TP is marginally lowered to MYR4.35 (15sen) on
rolling forward valuations to CY18 on a lower PBV peg of 1.2x(1.4x
previously).
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FYE Mar (MYR m)
|
FY16A
|
FY17A
|
FY18E
|
FY19E
|
|
Operating income
|
1,424.1
|
1,469.4
|
1,560.0
|
1,614.5
|
|
Pre-provision profit
|
735.2
|
777.5
|
795.6
|
827.7
|
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Core net profit
|
522.0
|
512.1
|
516.3
|
530.9
|
|
Core FDEPS (MYR)
|
0.34
|
0.34
|
0.34
|
0.35
|
|
Core FDEPS growth(%)
|
(1.7)
|
(1.9)
|
0.8
|
2.8
|
|
Net DPS (MYR)
|
0.14
|
0.16
|
0.16
|
0.17
|
|
Core FD P/E (x)
|
12.7
|
12.9
|
12.8
|
12.5
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.4
|
1.3
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.3
|
3.7
|
3.7
|
3.8
|
|
Book value (MYR)
|
3.17
|
3.35
|
3.52
|
3.70
|
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ROAE (%)
|
11.2
|
10.3
|
9.8
|
9.6
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
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Share
Price:
|
MYR0.28
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR0.58
|
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Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
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1Q17: In line
|
|
Marginally in the red in 1Q17 due to timing differences as
earnings are backloaded to 2H17. Our earnings forecasts are unchanged,
on expectation of stronger quarters ahead. The recent commencement of
its Thai bio-ethanol facility is a positive. KNM’s successful
transformation into a renewable energy (RE) group over the next 3 years
is a key catalyst. Our TP is unchanged, based on 0.4x EV/MYR1.3b
backlog.
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|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,641.3
|
1,646.8
|
1,646.9
|
1,721.5
|
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EBITDA
|
205.7
|
(160.8)
|
150.9
|
176.5
|
|
Core net profit
|
45.7
|
(262.3)
|
49.7
|
70.5
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
2.4
|
(12.3)
|
2.3
|
3.3
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
3.4
|
nm
|
nm
|
41.8
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
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Core P/E (x)
|
11.5
|
nm
|
12.0
|
8.5
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
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ROAE (%)
|
2.0
|
(12.2)
|
2.1
|
2.9
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
1.1
|
(5.8)
|
1.1
|
1.5
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
7.1
|
nm
|
9.5
|
7.7
|
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Net debt/equity (%)
|
19.2
|
37.4
|
34.6
|
30.8
|
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Share
Price:
|
MYR9.00
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR8.90
|
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Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
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Routine start
|
|
1Q17 results were in line, with the underlying data growth
momentum still intact, albeit boosted by still sizable IRU sales.
Maintain HOLD with an unchanged MYR8.90 TP. Risk-reward remains
relatively balanced for now, in our view, with TDC’s current growth
prospects having been priced-in to a certain extent.
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|
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|
|
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|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
682.4
|
766.9
|
880.3
|
991.2
|
|
EBITDA
|
263.9
|
292.6
|
334.5
|
376.6
|
|
Core net profit
|
171.2
|
246.6
|
235.2
|
258.2
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
29.8
|
42.8
|
40.7
|
44.6
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
34.0
|
43.5
|
(4.9)
|
9.8
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
80.2
|
30.6
|
10.2
|
11.2
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
30.2
|
21.1
|
22.1
|
20.2
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
2.5
|
2.4
|
2.3
|
2.1
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
8.9
|
3.4
|
1.1
|
1.2
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
21.0
|
19.1
|
10.6
|
11.1
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
6.4
|
9.2
|
8.4
|
8.7
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
16.2
|
14.2
|
14.8
|
12.6
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
Chi Wei Tan
|
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|
Syairah Malek
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR0.78
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR0.72
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1Q17: In line
|
|
Excluding the -MYR30m EI (largely from forex loss), 1Q17
core net profit of MYR78m (+111% YoY) made up 28% of ours/consensus FY
estimates. Our earnings forecasts are unchanged. Securing full
acceptance for FPSOs Kraken, Olombendo and Madura is crucial for 2017.
Until then, the stock remains a HOLD with an unchanged MYR0.72
SOP-based TP.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
2,179.7
|
1,416.6
|
1,918.9
|
2,995.6
|
|
EBITDA
|
1,101.7
|
552.6
|
1,116.5
|
1,561.7
|
|
Core net profit
|
360.7
|
(83.3)
|
269.8
|
679.1
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
6.1
|
(1.4)
|
4.6
|
11.6
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(22.2)
|
nm
|
nm
|
151.7
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
0.8
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
12.6
|
nm
|
16.9
|
6.7
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.6
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
0.7
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
1.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
(3.4)
|
(29.2)
|
4.6
|
10.8
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
2.2
|
(0.4)
|
1.2
|
3.2
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
11.4
|
24.6
|
12.6
|
8.5
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
89.1
|
176.3
|
159.2
|
131.4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.56
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.45
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Results on track
|
|
After deducting the MYR18.3m distribution to perpetual
sukuk holders, 1Q17 net profit of MYR72m (-6% YoY) was in line. 3M17
locked-in property sales of MYR410m were also in line. Management
remains confident on meeting its minimum sales target of MYR1.8b for
2017 supported by MYR1.9b worth of new launches from 2Q17 onwards. We
maintain our earnings forecasts and MYR1.45 RNAV-TP (on an unchanged
0.6x P/RNAV). Maintain HOLD.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
3,108.5
|
2,957.6
|
2,980.0
|
3,119.6
|
|
EBITDA
|
527.9
|
508.8
|
585.2
|
657.8
|
|
Core net profit
|
338.8
|
319.5
|
300.7
|
343.3
|
|
Core FDEPS (sen)
|
14.1
|
13.3
|
12.5
|
14.2
|
|
Core FDEPS growth(%)
|
(23.5)
|
(5.7)
|
(5.9)
|
14.1
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
6.5
|
6.5
|
5.0
|
5.7
|
|
Core FD P/E (x)
|
11.1
|
11.8
|
12.5
|
10.9
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.2
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
1.0
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
4.2
|
4.2
|
3.2
|
3.7
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
5.7
|
5.0
|
4.3
|
4.3
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
6.9
|
6.9
|
4.3
|
3.6
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
3.7
|
2.0
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MACRO RESEARCH
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sustained momentum
by
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Money supply (M3) growth was stable at +4.4% YoY in
Apr 2017 (Mar 2017: +4.5% YoY) amid faster deposit growth and
sustained credit growth, while official external reserves continued
its build up as the rise in BNM’s net short FX positions rose but at
a slower pace.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
Zamros
Dzulkafli
|
|
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|
Is Gold Worth the Wait?
by Nik
Ihsan Raja Abdullah
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FBMKLCI eked out a marginal gain of 0.53pts yesterday
to close at 1,765.87. The broader market, however, remained negative
after losers outpacing gainers by 501 to 437. A total of 2.74b shares
worth MYR5.17b changed hands yesterday. Given FBMKLCI’S resilience
and huge spike in trading value despite selling pressure, this point
to the emergence of fresh buying interest particularly in blue chip
stocks.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nik Ihsan Raja
Abdullah
|
|
|
|
Tee Sze Chiah
|
|
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|
|
NEWS
|
|
|
Outside Malaysia:
U.S. Pending home sales falter in April as lean inventory
boosts prices. Housing demand unexpectedly weakened for a second month
across most U.S. regions as lean inventory took a toll on affordability,
putting a damper on the typically busier spring selling season, according
to National Association of Realtors figures. Pending home sales index
fell 1.3% after 0.9% drop. Index decreased 5.4% YoY from April 2016 on an
unadjusted basis. Three of four regions showed monthly declines. (Source:
Bloomberg)
U.S: Fed survey shows modest growth with tight labor and
tame prices. The U.S. economy continued to grow “modestly” or
“moderately” in nearly all regions in recent weeks, though new signs
appeared that optimism has waned in some districts, a Federal Reserve survey
showed. The central bank’s Beige Book economic report, based on anecdotal
information collected by the 12 regional Fed banks through May 22, said
several sectors from manufacturing to housing continued to expand slowly.
Consumer spending softened, however, with many districts reporting little
or no change in non-auto retail sales. “A majority of districts reported
that firms expressed positive near-term outlooks; however, optimism waned
somewhat in a few districts,” according to the report. (Source: Bloomberg)
Brazil: Central Bank keeps rate cut pace as uncertainty
looms. Brazil’s central bank kept the pace of monetary easing and
signaled future rate cuts may not be as aggressive amid a fresh political
crisis that has rocked the country. The bank’s board led by President
Ilan Goldfajn reduced the benchmark Selic rate by a full percentage point
to 10.25% as forecast by 43 of 47 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Three
economists estimated a 75 basis-point cut, and one expected a 125
basis-point reduction. (Source: Bloomberg)
Australia: Home prices fall in May as lending curbs start
to bite. Australian house prices fell for the first time in 17 months, in
an early sign lending restrictions are starting to damp demand. Home
values in Australia’s state and territory capitals fell 1.1% last month
from April, according to CoreLogic Inc. data released. Still, prices
across the combined capitals were 8.3% YoY higher than a year ago. The
monthly decline comes after regulators tightened lending curbs amid fears
of a housing bubble, and the nation’s banks raised interest rates --
especially for interest-only loans which are popular with property
investors seeking to take advantage of tax breaks. (Source: Bloomberg)
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|
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|
|
|
|
Other News:
Destini: 1Q earnings up 40% on higher demand for MRO and
marine manufacturing services. Posted a 40.3% increase in net profit for
1QFY17 to MYRY10.05m, from MYR7.17m a year earlier. The company
attributed the increase to higher demand for the group’s aviation
maintenance, repair and overhaul services, and its marine manufacturing
services. Destini said it will also expand its MRO services to a wider
range of aircraft, which are helicopters. (Source: The Edge Financial
Daily)
Muhibbah Engineering: Post higher 1Q profit despite 50%
drop in revenue. Net profit in 1QFY17 rose 23% YoY to MYR29.31m from
MYR23.75m despite a substantial drop in revenue, due to higher
contribution from its concessions division. It said its latest profit
numbers also looked better because the previous year had reported higher
taxation expense due to a one-off taxation payment for prior years of
MYR3.5m. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)
MSM Malaysia Holdings: Slips into the red on 1Q on higher
raw material cost and weaker ringgit. The group registered a net loss of
MYR34.62m or 4.93 sen per share for 1QFY17 compared with a net profit of
MYR59.34m or 8.44 sen per share a year ago. The company attributed the
net loss to higher raw material costs and the weakened ringgit. Its
quarterly revenue, however, rose 17.32% to MYR648.97m from MYR553.16m in
1QFY16 on the back of improved selling price and higher volume of refined
sugar for the domestic market segment. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)
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