We maintain our BUY recommendation on Bison Consolidated
(Bison) and a higher fair value of RM2.70/share (from RM2.24/share previously).
We roll over our valuations to FY18F, pegged to an unchanged PE of 27x, which
is in line with 7-Eleven Malaysia (7E Malaysia). Earnings were above ours and
consensus estimates at 61% and 53% respectively. We continue to like Bison for
its growth, driven by an aggressive expansion plan, and supported by an
excellent execution track record. Heading into FY19, there could be a potential
margin enhancement underpinned by its own in-house food processing centre.
Bison reported a 2QFY17 core net profit of RM6.2mil (QoQ:
-2.5%) brought cumulative earnings to RM12.6mil (YoY: 28.6%). The declared
dividend of 2.0 sen/share was above our expectations. Bison’s QoQ revenue
growth of 4.0% was supplemented by the 4.8% higher store count or the
additional 15 new stores against the preceding quarter. It brought the total
store count to 325 stores as at the end of April. Cumulative top-line growth
was in tandem with store addition as well. Bison remains on track for an addition
of 70 new stores for the financial year.
As a result of healthier margin assumption, our earnings
forecast is adjusted upwards by 10.5% and 5.4% for FY17F and FY18F
respectively. Key risks to Bison include: 1) excise duty hike to cigarettes,
which lowers foot traffic and related spillover spending; 2) delay in food
-processing centre set-up; and 3) tightening of foreign labour regulation.
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