STOCK FOCUS OF THE DAY
OldTown : Some headwinds but opportunity abounds
BUY
We maintain our BUY recommendation but raise our FV to
RM3.20 (from RM3.00/per share). Our FV is based on 17.0x CY18F P/E, which is a
20% discount to the simple average PE of its FMCG peers of 23x. We like OldTown
for its export-driven growth, market leader as #1 white coffee brand in all its
core markets and outstanding operational track record. OldTown has locked in
its yearly coffee contracts at prices 10% above our initial assumption of
US$1,932/MT for FY18. It is a -4% impact to our FY18 EPS. The spike in S&D
expenses to 19.7% of revenue for FY17 (vs. FY16: 17.6%) is expected to
gradually grow to 25% over the next 5 years in tandem with OldTown’s market
expansion plans. For the quarter, China FMCG sales registered 71% YoY. It is
growing stronger than we expected, spearheaded by its online growth. As a
result, we double our China sales to 40% for FY18. As of FY17, China’s FMCG
contribution is now close to 25% of total FMCG sales.
As per our expectation, outlook on its F&B operations
locally remains soft. However, we are pleasantly surprised over its foreign
store expansion outlook, in China and Myanmar. It will be on a licensing basis,
resulting in minimal risks to OldTown in our opinion. We are positive over
OldTown capex doubling in FY18. The incremental spending is expected to improve
its FMCG operational efficiency through further automation. It is expected to
be completed in 3QFY18. We trim our earnings by 7% and 2% respectively for
FY18/FY19 after updating our assumptions. We believe the vast untapped China
(Exhibit 1) market still far outweighs the near term lofty commodity prices and
the present, but receding F&B headwinds. We take this opportunity to roll
forward our valuations to CY18F from FY18F.
Others :
YTL Reit : Acquisition of Majestic Hotel KL earnings
accretive
BUY
Titijaya Land : Getting aggressive on new
launches
BUY
Mah Sing Group : Another development in
Sentul
BUY
Econpile Holdings : 9MFY17 net profit grows 22% YoY
HOLD
QUICK TAKE
Plantation Sector : News flow for week 22-26
May
NEUTRAL
STOCKS ON RADAR
Cypark Resources, CSC Steel Holdings,JHM Consolidation,Hap
Seng Consolidated
ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
US : June rate hike
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
Bioalpha Holdings : Bioalpha to launch new health
supplements in key markets
Kronologi Asia : Kronologi to raise funds for expansion
Manulife Holdings/Engtex Group : Manulife back as
substantial shareholder in Engtex
DISCLAIMER:
The information and opinions in this report were prepared by
AmInvestment Bank Bhd. The investments discussed or recommended in this report
may not be suitable for all investors. This report has been prepared for
information purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy
any securities. The directors and employees of AmInvestment Bank Bhd. Bhd may
from time to time have a position in or with the securities mentioned herein.
Members of the AmBank Group Bhd and their affiliates may provide services to
any company and affiliates of such companies whose securities are mentioned
herein. The information herein was obtained or derived from sources that we
believe are reliable, but while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure
that stated facts are accurate and opinions fair and reasonable, we do not
represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as
such. No liability can be accepted for any loss that may arise from the use of
this report. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our
judgment as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
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