Thursday, October 6, 2016

Berjaya Corp: Sells Taiga stake. Berjaya Corp (BCorp) and its wholly owned subsidiary, Berjaya Forest Products (Luxembourg) Sarl (BForest), have entered into two disposal agreements with Malaysian


FEATURE
CALLS

Regional | Regional Plantations
Raining buckets in Indonesia
Chee Ting Ong






Malaysia | Top Glove
Share price ahead of earnings
Yen Ling Lee









break


COMPANY RESEARCH





Rating Change





Top Glove (TOPG MK)
by Yen Ling Lee





Share Price:
MYR5.11
Target Price:
MYR4.10
Recommendation:
Sell




Share price ahead of earnings

Top Glove’s share price has risen a sharp 21% in one month on optimism of a strong earnings recovery. However, we expect its upcoming quarter earnings to be flattish QoQ (but a substantial fall YoY). There is also downside risk to street’s FY17-18 earnings forecasts. Valuation is pricey at 19x CY17 PER (+1SD to mean). We downgrade the stock to SELL (from HOLD) with an unchanged TP of MYR4.10 on 15x 2017 PER (mean PER).



FYE Aug (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue
2,275.4
2,510.5
2,979.8
3,057.9
EBITDA
298.5
454.3
564.4
511.4
Core net profit
180.5
279.8
376.9
326.6
Core EPS (sen)
14.6
22.6
30.4
26.3
Core EPS growth (%)
(8.2)
55.0
34.7
(13.3)
Net DPS (sen)
8.0
11.5
15.2
13.2
Core P/E (x)
35.1
22.7
16.8
19.4
P/BV (x)
4.6
3.9
3.5
3.2
Net dividend yield (%)
1.6
2.3
3.0
2.6
ROAE (%)
58.2
89.9
120.8
104.7
ROAA (%)
9.8
12.1
13.4
10.8
EV/EBITDA (x)
9.4
10.1
10.8
11.8
Net debt/equity (%)
net cash
net cash
net cash
net cash







SECTOR RESEARCH






Sector Note
by Chee Ting Ong


Raining buckets in Indonesia





2015’s drought-stricken region south of equator had a reversal of fate in 3Q16 as it has been experiencing excellent rainfall which was above the historical average. And weather model continues to forecast above-average rainfall in most parts of Indonesia over the next two months. This will set the stage for strong yield recovery in 2017 after a dismal harvest in 2016. We prefer Singapore (BUY FR & BAL) and Indonesia (BUY AALI, LSIP & TBLA) listed planters for their cheaper valuations.









NEWS


Outside Malaysia:

Global: A record USD 152tr in global debt unnerves IMF officials. Eight years after the financial crisis, the world is suffering from a debt hangover of unprecedented proportions. Gross debt in the non-financial sector has more than doubled in nominal terms since the turn of the century, reaching USD 152tr last year, and it’s still rising, the International Monetary Fund said. The figure includes debt held by governments, non-financial firms and households. Current debt levels now sit at a record 225% of world gross domestic product, the IMF said in its semi-annual Fiscal Monitor, noting that about two-thirds of the liabilities reside in the private sector. The rest of it is public debt, which has increased to 85% of GDP last year from below 70%. Slow global growth is making it difficult to pay off the obligations, “setting the stage for a vicious feedback loop in which lower growth hampers deleveraging and the debt overhang exacerbates the slowdown,” said the Washington-based fund. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.S: Fed’s Fischer says central banks need fiscal help to spur growth. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said both monetary and fiscal policy steps may be needed to fend off a protracted period of sub-par economic growth. “Ultra-low interest rates are not necessarily here to stay, especially if the right policies are put in place to address at least some of their root causes,” Fischer said in the text of a speech. Without citing specifics, Fischer called for “transparent and sound monetary policies here and abroad,” as well as investments in infrastructure and education, along with more effective regulation to boost productivity and longer-run potential growth. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.S: Service firms rebound to best expansion in 11 months. American service companies expanded in September at the fastest rate in almost a year, returning the economy’s biggest segment to a steady growth path after a slump in the prior month. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index jumped to 57.1, the highest since October 2015 and exceeding all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey, the Tempe, Arizona-based group’s data showed. The August reading of 51.4 was the lowest in more than six years. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.K: Services sector grew more than forecast last month as the economy continued to display resilience following the June vote to leave the European Union. IHS Markit said its Purchasing Managers Index dipped marginally to 52.6. It marks the second month over 50, the dividing line between expansion and contraction. The figure follows better-than-expected manufacturing and construction indexes, which point to economic expansion of 0.1% in the third quarter, Markit said. Omitting July’s across-the-board slump, the most recent figures suggest growth of about 0.3%. (Source: Bloomberg)

S. Korea: Government says uncertainties ‘high’ to 4Q 2016 growth path, although the trend so far is largely in line with previous projections, South Korea’s Finance Ministry says in e-mailed statement. Risks to 4Q exports and production include labor strikes in some industries, recall of mobile phones, and Hanjin Shipping issue; risks to consumption include anti-corruption law, delay in legislation of tax benefits for replacing old diesel cars. To support domestic demand, government will use fiscal stimulus in 4Q as planned and increase state-run organizations’ infrastructure investment for 2016 (Source: Bloomberg)





Other News:

Berjaya Corp: Sells Taiga stake. Berjaya Corp (BCorp) and its wholly owned subsidiary, Berjaya Forest Products (Luxembourg) Sarl (BForest), have entered into two disposal agreements with Malaysian businessman Tong Kooi Ong’s UPP Holdings Ltd, which will see the former net a gain of CAD23.14m (MYR72.82m). The first proposal was for BCorp to dispose the entire 12.67 million common shares or 39.09% equity interest in Taiga Building Products Ltd by BForest to UPP for CAD12.67m (MYR39.87m). Secondly, BCorp is disposing the entire CAD46.01m principal amount of 14% unsecured subordinated notes in Taiga by BForest to UPP for approximately CAD52.91m (MYR166.5m) or at a sale note of CAD1.15. The proposed disposals are expected to be completed by the first quarter of 2017. (Source: The Star)

Tien Wah: To buy cigarette company. Tien Wah Press Holdings has been awarded a tender to acquire the entire stake in cigarette manufacturer, PT Bintang Pesona Jagat, at an undisclosed sum. PT Bintang Pesona Jagat is a subsidiary of Bentoel Group. The acquisition comes with a six-year contract for the manufacturing and supply of packaging materials for Bentoel Group. The deal shall be conditional upon the acceptance of the terms, conditions, and procedures determined by Bentoel Group. (Source: The Sun Daily)

Kossan Rubber Industries: Partners with MRB to produce rubber products. Kossan Rubber Industries’s unit, Doshin Rubber Products (M) Sdn Bhd, has partnered with the Malaysian Rubber Board to develop rubber products for the civil engineering and construction industries. A collaboration agreement between both parties was inked on Sept 27, 2016 for a term of three years. Both parties would identify potential companies for the commercial evaluation of rubber products for civil engineering and construction. (Source: The Star)

Mega First: IRB slaps additional MYR22.8m taxes, penalties on Mega First. The Inland Revenue Board (IRB) has sent notices to Mega First Corp’s unit Idaman Harmoni Sdn Bhd for additional taxes and penalties totalling MYR22.8m. Idaman Harmoni was served with the two notices from the IRB in September. The additional taxes and penalties are in relation to a JV entered into by Idaman Harmoni as the land-owner with a property developer, to build an office and residential property known as PJ8. The IRB has taken the view that there is a deemed disposal of the PJ8 property by Idaman Harmoni, which is subject to income tax. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Ho Hup: To build Immigration quarters in Perak. Ho Hup Construction Co has bagged a MYR32.4m sub-contract to construct the Immigration quarters in Pengkalan Hulu, Perak. Under the contract from Adegan Senandung Sdn Bhd, it would be responsible for all piling, building, external and miscellaneous works related to the construction of the quarters. The three-year contract, scheduled to start on Oct 20, was expected to contribute positively to the Ho Hup group’s earnings for the financial years ending Dec 31, 2016 to Dec 31, 2019. (Source: The Star)


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