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FEATURE
CALLS
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Malaysia | Budget 2017
Sustaining
growth
Chew Hann Wong
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MACRO RESEARCH
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Strategy Research
by Chew
Hann Wong
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Budget 2017 is responsible, balancing growth with
fiscal prudence. Positives incl. lower tax rates for companies with
growth, and a new MYR3b fund to invest in small-mid caps.
Construction will see sustained order book visibility but property
stocks may see near-term weakness as expectations on policy easing
did not materialise. The drop in fixed broadband price points could
be negative for TM. We retain our 1,710 end-2016 KLCI target, and
introduce 1,820 for end-2017.
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Economics Research
by
Suhaimi Ilias
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Themed “Accelerating Growth, Ensuring Fiscal Prudence,
Enhancing Wellbeing of People”, Budget 2017 maintains commitment to
fiscal discipline and consolidation; supports domestic demand via
corporate income tax rate cut, incentives for tourism, SMEs, exports
and digital economy, and infrastructure investment; and focuses on
the wellbeing of the low- and middle-income groups by addressing the
issues of inclusivity, equality, cost of living and affordable
housing.
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Suhaimi Ilias
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Zamros
Dzulkafli
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Economics Research
by
Suhaimi Ilias
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Suggests no more
GDP slowdown in 2H 2016 20162016
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Index of leading economic indicators rebounded +0.2%
YoY in Aug 2016 (July 2016: -2.5% YoY) - first YoY growth since Oct
2015. Together with earlier released data like industrial production
index and imports of capital and consumption goods, the numbers for
July-Aug 2016 suggest GDP growth slowdown since 2Q 2015 have
stabilized at least in 2H 2016.
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Suhaimi Ilias
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Zamros
Dzulkafli
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Economics Research
by
Suhaimi Ilias
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Continued sub-2%
inflation
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Inflation rate in Sep 2016 remained at +1.5% YoY (Aug
2016: +1.5% YoY). Core inflation eased slightly to +2.1% YoY (Aug
2016: +2.2% YoY). YTD 2016 inflation and core inflation are +2.2% YoY
and +2.6% YoY respectively. No change in our 2016 and 2017 inflation
rate forecasts of 2.0%-2.5% for both years.
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Suhaimi Ilias
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Zamros
Dzulkafli
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Fixed Income Research
by
Winson Phoon
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Budget 2017 displays a similar policy tone on fiscal
discipline with a target to trim deficit/GDP ratio to 3.0% in 2017
while reiterating the 3.1% target in 2016. Our forecast on government
bond supply in 2016 is lowered marginally to MYR86.5b from MYR87b; no
change to our 2017 forecast at MYR104b. Overall, the gov't commitment
to fiscal consolidation should provide some resilience to the
sovereign rating of Malaysia, but with limited visibility to rating
upside in the near term, in our view.
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Winson Phoon
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Se Tho Mun Yi
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NEWS
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Outside Malaysia:
U.K: Budget deficit leaves Hammond little room for
maneuver. Britain is on course to borrow billions of pounds more than
planned this year, leaving Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond
little room for generosity as he prepares new budget plans to help the
economy cope with Brexit. The budget shortfall in the first six months of
the fiscal year declined just 5% to GBP 45.5b (USD 55.7b), a fraction of
the pace envisaged before Britain voted to leave the European Union,
figures from the Office for National Statistics showed. In September
alone, the deficit widened to GBP 10.6b, the highest for the month in two
years. (Source: Bloomberg)
Japan: Exports drop for 12th month in dismal year for
trade. Japan’s exports fell for a 12th consecutive month in September,
rounding out a year’s worth of poor returns for an economy struggling
with a resurgent yen and weak global demand. Overseas shipments dropped
6.9% YoY in September, the Ministry of Finance said. Imports fell 16.3%
YoY during the same period, resulting in a trade surplus of JPY 498.3b
(USD 4.8b). (Source: Bloomberg)
Japan: Loan demand from households drops in October: BOJ
survey. Demand from household’s drops to 10, compared with 14 in the
previous survey, according to the Bank of Japan’s survey of senior loan
officers at Japanese banks. Survey measures how demand for loans has
changed from 3 months ago as demand from companies rose to 6 from 4 while
demand from local government declined to -4 from 3. (Source: Bloomberg)
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Other News:
Pesona Metro: Bags MYR402m contract to build Eaton
Residences on Jln Kia Peng. Pesona Metro Holdings’s wholly-owned unit has
bagged a MYR402m contract from City View Ventures S/B to build a
52-storey condominium block on Lot 371, Jalan Kia Peng, here. Pesona
Metro said the job will take 43 months, starting from Dec 1, 2016, and
will contribute positively to its earnings while enhancing its net assets
in the course of work. Pesona Metro will use internal funds to finance
the project, hence it expects there to be no material impact on its
gearing. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)
Sinotop: Proposes capital reduction, repayment and
diversification. The proposed capital reduction and repayment will give
rise to a credit of about MYR276.43m, which would be used to set off
against the accumulated losses and for capital repayment to the
shareholders. The cancellation of 14 sen of the par value of each
existing Sinotop share, will see 12.49 sen per share set off against the
accumulated losses of the company and 1.51 sen per share repaid to
Sinotop shareholders. Sinotop is also proposing a share consolidation of
the company’s issued and outstanding ordinary shares at a ratio of five
ordinary shares of 6 sen each (after the proposed capital reduction and
repayment) to one consolidated share of 30 sen each. The China-based
fabric manufacturer proposes to diversify its core business to involve
project management and infrastructure construction-related businesses via
its 100% subsidiary company Gorgeous Goldhill S/B. (Source: The Sun
Daily)
CIMB: Expects to start Philippines ops by second half of
next year. The group expects to kick off operations in the Philippines,
the market that will complete its Asean footprint, by the second half of
next year. Chief executive officer Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Aziz says the
banking group has submitted its proposal to start a branch there and is
awaiting regulatory approval. CIMB is partnering the Philippines’
telecommunications company, Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company
(PLDT), to offer digital financial offerings and solutions. The
Philippines was the missing link for it to complete its Asean footprint.
It aims to complete this dream by 2018 in line with its T18 initiatives.
(Source: The Star)
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