FX Research – Playing into seasonality game

Good Afternoon Readers!

v Markets are happy to jump on the US dollar short train especially when there is a rally to sell into. US dollar/Asia is retesting recent lows with a 3.5% gain in March – its strongest rally since the Global Financial Crisis.

v The seasonality pattern of Ringgit Malaysia in April in each year has the highest predictable change compared to other months of the year. It has consistently demonstrated its appreciation bias in month of April since 2006 and it could be related to supportive seasonality of Petronas’ dividend repatriation and quarterly portfolio rebalancing into local assets.

v Yield hunting will likely to continue supported by decline in shorter-dated volatilities on downgrades to median US rate expectations. China’s pro-growth signals and relative stability in oil prices are helpful to calm the fretting markets. Valuation wise, Ringgit Malaysia still have some leeway to strengthen.