Economic Research | 30 March 2018 | | ||||
Vietnam | | |||||
Economic Update | ||||||
Economic Activity Recovered In March
Economist: Vincent Loo Yeong Hong | +603 9280 2172 Aris Nazman Maslan | +603 9280 2184 | | |||||
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To access our recent reports please click on the links below: 30 Mar : Vietnam’s GDP Growth Highest In a Decade 02 Mar : Tet Drives Slowdown in February 03 Jan : Industrial And External Activities Moderate Slightly 02 Jan : Robust Exports Boost Vietnam’s 2017 GDP 05 Dec : Industrial Activity Continues Upward Trend | | |||||
Economics Team | | |||||
Arup Raha | Group Chief Economist | +65 6232 3896 | | |||
Peck Boon Soon | Chief ASEAN Economist | +603 9280 2163 | | |||
Vincent Loo Yeong Hong | Malaysia, Vietnam | +603 9280 2172 | | |||
Rizki Fajar | Indonesia, Philippines | +6221 2970 7065 | | |||
Aris Nazman Maslan | Malaysia, Vietnam | +603 9280 2184 | | |||
Friday, March 30, 2018
FW: RHB | Vietnam | Economic Activity Recovered In March
FW: CIMB Fixed Income Daily - 30 Mar 2018 - US Treasuries continue to strengthen / Softer-than-expected MGS auction
CIMB Fixed Income Daily - 30 Mar 2018 - US Treasuries continue to strengthen / Softer-than-expected MGS auction
US Treasuries continued to strengthen with yields down 3-4bps and 10T now at 2.74%. With 2T at 2.26% the 2x10 spread is tighter at 48bps. The US market closed early Thursday and will remain closed for Good Friday. In macro data releases, US consumer spending rose 0.2% in February, meeting consensus, whilst core PCE rose 0.2% in Feb also meeting consensus. Geopolitics remains a concern. Russian Foreign Minister said Russia will expel 60 US diplomats and orders closure of the US consulate in St Petersburg. Targeting some normalization in 2x10 towards 53bps in short term period.
Malaysian sovereign bond market was quiet with flows led by the 3y MGS. The RM3b 3y MGS reopening auction saw softer-than-expected demand with 1.722x btc and average yield of 3.451%. Post auction, it was traded within 3.44-3.46% before settling at 3.46%. Expect activities to remain subdued apart from portfolio rebalancing ahead of the weekend.
We think continued upbeat outlook for short tenor bonds in general, in view of firm MYR and low inflation environment bringing Bank Negara unlikely to tighten anytime soon, should push for more flows into the new 3y proxy. We think current levels above 3.45% remain an attractive entry point. Aside, there aren't any more 3y MGS auction this year, and new issue of 3y GII is scheduled for September 2018 plus a reopening due for December.
In Bangkok, trading activities were active at the back of the curve. The long-end yields corrected lower about 2bps with buying interest by local clients indicating some players may not participate next week's bond switching program as long-term bond outperformed on Thursday.
IndoGB extended gains again on the back of sustained offshore inflows. Bids came on the back recent offshore buying interest and short covering. On Thursday, offshore interest came on 7-20y tenors. Added interest came from local real moneys and banks. Yields fell about 9bps on average. Trade flows halved to IDR22.8t and concentrated on longer tenor bonds.
CIMB Treasury & Markets Research-Fixed Income
Tel: +603 2261 8557 | Fax: +603 2261 8705
www.cimb.com
Find us on Bloomberg at CIMR <Go>
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FW: RHB | Vietnam | Vietnam's GDP Growth Highest In a Decade
Economic Research | 30 March 2018 | | ||||
Vietnam | | |||||
Economic Update | ||||||
Vietnam’s GDP Growth Highest In a Decade
Economist: Vincent Loo Yeong Hong | +603 9280 2172 Aris Nazman Maslan | +603 9280 2184 | | |||||
| ||||||
To access our recent reports please click on the links below: 02 Mar : Tet Drives Slowdown in February 03 Jan : Industrial And External Activities Moderate Slightly 02 Jan : Robust Exports Boost Vietnam’s 2017 GDP 05 Dec : Industrial Activity Continues Upward Trend 31 Oct : Industrial Activity Strongest In Two Years | | |||||
Economics Team | | |||||
Arup Raha | Group Chief Economist | +65 6232 3896 | | |||
Peck Boon Soon | Chief ASEAN Economist | +603 9280 2163 | | |||
Vincent Loo Yeong Hong | Malaysia, Vietnam | +603 9280 2172 | | |||
Rizki Fajar | Indonesia, Philippines | +6221 2970 7065 | | |||
Aris Nazman Maslan | Malaysia, Vietnam | +603 9280 2184 | | |||
FW: 20180330 AmBank FX Daily Outlook
Highlights of today’s AmBank FX Daily Outlook as follows:- |
v Marginal gains for dollar on data meeting expectations v MYR to fluctuate in the range of 3.8586 – 3.8736 against US dollar v Key Watch: (i) Feb Japan Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, and Construction Orders; (ii) Feb Malaysia PPI and M3 Money Supply; (iii) Feb Thailand Industrial Production, Private Consumption, and Coincident Index; (iv) Jan Thailand Retail Sales |
Best regards,
FX Research & Strategy
AmBank Research, AmBank (M) Berhad
+603 2036 2255 (DL) +03 2031 7218 (Fax)
Level 15, Bangunan AmBank Group, 55 Jalan Raja Chulan, 50200 Kuala Lumpur
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FW: AmWatch : Yinson Holdings : Steady core performance amid Ca Rong Do limbo Buy, 30 Mar 2018
STOCK FOCUS OF THE DAY
Yinson Holdings : Steady core performance amid Ca Rong Do limbo Buy
We maintain BUY on Yinson Holdings (Yinson) but with a lower sum-of-parts-based (SOP) fair value of RM4.72/share (from an earlier RM5.05)/share), which implies an FY19F PE of 15x, with the removal of the DCF of the group’s 49% -stake in the Ca Rong Do (CRD) floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) bareboat charter.
Excluding unrealised forex loss of RM62mil, Yinson’s FY18 core net profit of RM346mil was within our and street’s estimates. While we have fine-tuned Yinson’s FY19F earnings, FY20F earnings have been cut by 10% largely from the removal of contributions from the CRD FPSO, currently under a force majeure event against the backdrop of a territorial dispute between Vietnam and China.
Yinson’s FY18 DPS of 12 sen doubled our expectations, largely due to the surprise 4QFY18 payment of a 4 sen special dividend and a final 4 sen payout. The group had secured the US$102mil Lam Son FPSO termination compensation from PetroVietnam in December last year. Hence, we have raised our FY19F-FY21F DPS by 33% to 8 sen, which translates to a payout ratio of 25%.
QUICK TAKE
Prestariang : Software business still rolling Buy
RETAIL RESEARCH
Stocks On Radar: Lee Swee Kiat Group, Hiap Teck Venture, GHL Systems, P.I.E. Industrial
ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
UK – Brexit remains the most significant influence
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
EcoWorld : 1Q core earnings strengthen
HiapTeck : Sees sevenfold rise in Q2
BAssets : Proposes bonus issue
Adventa : Sees net profit doubling in FY18
DISCLAIMER:
The information and opinions in this report were prepared by AmInvestment Bank Bhd. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. This report has been prepared for information purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. The directors and employees of AmInvestment Bank Bhd. Bhd may from time to time have a position in or with the securities mentioned herein. Members of the AmBank Group Bhd and their affiliates may provide services to any company and affiliates of such companies whose securities are mentioned herein. The information herein was obtained or derived from sources that we believe are reliable, but while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that stated facts are accurate and opinions fair and reasonable, we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. No liability can be accepted for any loss that may arise from the use of this report. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgment as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
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This message may contain confidential and privileged information for its intended recipient(s) only. If you are not an intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any review, dissemination, and distribution, printing or copying of this message or any part thereof is strictly prohibited. Please delete the entire message and inform the sender of the error. Any opinions, conclusions and other information in this message that are unrelated to official business of AmBank Group are those of the individual sender and shall be understood as neither explicitly given nor endorsed by AmBank Group.
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FW: [Maybank IB] Today's Research - Malaysia
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