Friday, March 30, 2018

FW: RHB | Vietnam | Economic Activity Recovered In March

 

 

 

 

 


Economic Research

30 March 2018

 

Vietnam

 

 

 

Economic Update

 

 

Economic Activity Recovered In March

 

Industrial and external activities recovered in March, after easing in February, likely due to shorter working days. Retail sales, however, slowed, reflecting the slowdown in sales from a surge during the Tet festival in February.  Meanwhile, inflationary pressures also eased up during the month. Looking ahead, we anticipate the robust growth in exports and strong inflow of FDIs to remain sustainable – trickling down to the domestic side and boosting overall economic activity. After recording a robust growth of 6.8% in 2017, we expect Vietnam to record a real GDP growth of 6.3% in 2018. This is on account of:

     i.   Sustained inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI);

   ii.   Continued growth in export activity;

  iii.   Robust private investments

 

Economist:

Vincent Loo Yeong Hong  | +603 9280 2172

Aris Nazman Maslan | +603 9280 2184

 

 

 

To access our recent reports please click on the links below:

 

30 Mar : Vietnam’s GDP Growth Highest In a Decade

02 Mar : Tet Drives Slowdown in February

03 Jan : Industrial And External Activities Moderate Slightly

02 Jan : Robust Exports Boost Vietnam’s 2017 GDP

05 Dec : Industrial Activity Continues Upward Trend

 

 

Economics Team

 

Arup Raha

Group Chief Economist

arup.raha@rhbgroup.com

+65 6232 3896

 

Peck Boon Soon

Chief ASEAN Economist

bspeck@rhbgroup.com

+603 9280 2163

 

Vincent Loo Yeong Hong

Malaysia, Vietnam

vincent.loo@rhgroup.com

+603 9280 2172

 

Rizki Fajar

Indonesia, Philippines

rizki.fajar@rhbgroup.com

+6221 2970 7065

 

Aris Nazman Maslan

Malaysia, Vietnam

mohd.aris.nazman@rhbgroup.com

+603 9280 2184

 

 

 

 

FW: CIMB Fixed Income Daily - 30 Mar 2018 - US Treasuries continue to strengthen / Softer-than-expected MGS auction

 

 

CIMB Fixed Income Daily - 30 Mar 2018 - US Treasuries continue to strengthen / Softer-than-expected MGS auction

US Treasuries continued to strengthen with yields down 3-4bps and 10T now at 2.74%. With 2T at 2.26% the 2x10 spread is tighter at 48bps. The US market closed early Thursday and will remain closed for Good Friday. In macro data releases, US consumer spending rose 0.2% in February, meeting consensus, whilst core PCE rose 0.2% in Feb also meeting consensus. Geopolitics remains a concern. Russian Foreign Minister said Russia will expel 60 US diplomats and orders closure of the US consulate in St Petersburg. Targeting some normalization in 2x10 towards 53bps in short term period.
Malaysian sovereign bond market was quiet with flows led by the 3y MGS. The RM3b 3y MGS reopening auction saw softer-than-expected demand with 1.722x btc and average yield of 3.451%. Post auction, it was traded within 3.44-3.46% before settling at 3.46%. Expect activities to remain subdued apart from portfolio rebalancing ahead of the weekend.

We think continued upbeat outlook for short tenor bonds in general, in view of firm MYR and low inflation environment bringing Bank Negara unlikely to tighten anytime soon, should push for more flows into the new 3y proxy. We think current levels above 3.45% remain an attractive entry point. Aside, there aren't any more 3y MGS auction this year, and new issue of 3y GII is scheduled for September 2018 plus a reopening due for December.

In Bangkok, trading activities were active at the back of the curve. The long-end yields corrected lower about 2bps with buying interest by local clients indicating some players may not participate next week's bond switching program as long-term bond outperformed on Thursday.

IndoGB extended gains again on the back of sustained offshore inflows. Bids came on the back recent offshore buying interest and short covering. On Thursday, offshore interest came on 7-20y tenors. Added interest came from local real moneys and banks. Yields fell about 9bps on average. Trade flows halved to IDR22.8t and concentrated on longer tenor bonds.

CIMB Treasury & Markets Research-Fixed Income
Tel: +603 2261 8557 | Fax: +603 2261 8705
www.cimb.com
Find us on Bloomberg at CIMR <Go>


Think Before You Print

 

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FW: RHB | Vietnam | Vietnam's GDP Growth Highest In a Decade

 

 

 

 

 


Economic Research

30 March 2018

 

Vietnam

 

 

 

Economic Update

 

 

Vietnam’s GDP Growth Highest In a Decade

 

Vietnam’s real GDP recorded a decade-high growth of 7.4% in 1Q18, picking up from +6.8% recorded for full-year 2017, and +5.1% for 1Q17. We believe the strong growth in exports and FDI inflows, along with resilient domestic demand, ought to continue supporting overall economic activity going forward. Overall, we forecast GDP growth to record a sustained growth of 6.3% in 2018, albeit slowing from 2017’s 6.8%. This is on account of:

     i.   Sustained inflows of foreign direct investments (FDIs);

    ii.   Continued growth in exports amid sustained global trade activity;

  iii.   Robust private investments;

  iv.   The Government’s efforts on economic liberalisation and institutional reforms

 

Economist:

Vincent Loo Yeong Hong  | +603 9280 2172

Aris Nazman Maslan | +603 9280 2184

 

 

 

To access our recent reports please click on the links below:

 

02 Mar : Tet Drives Slowdown in February

03 Jan : Industrial And External Activities Moderate Slightly

02 Jan : Robust Exports Boost Vietnam’s 2017 GDP

05 Dec : Industrial Activity Continues Upward Trend

31 Oct : Industrial Activity Strongest In Two Years

 

 

Economics Team

 

Arup Raha

Group Chief Economist

arup.raha@rhbgroup.com

+65 6232 3896

 

Peck Boon Soon

Chief ASEAN Economist

bspeck@rhbgroup.com

+603 9280 2163

 

Vincent Loo Yeong Hong

Malaysia, Vietnam

vincent.loo@rhgroup.com

+603 9280 2172

 

Rizki Fajar

Indonesia, Philippines

rizki.fajar@rhbgroup.com

+6221 2970 7065

 

Aris Nazman Maslan

Malaysia, Vietnam

mohd.aris.nazman@rhbgroup.com

+603 9280 2184

 

 

 

 

FW: 20180330 AmBank FX Daily Outlook

 

 

 

Highlights of today’s AmBank FX Daily Outlook as follows:-

 

v  Marginal gains for dollar on data meeting expectations

v  MYR to fluctuate in the range of 3.8586 – 3.8736 against US dollar

v  Key Watch: (i) Feb Japan Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, and Construction Orders; (ii) Feb Malaysia PPI and M3 Money Supply; (iii) Feb Thailand Industrial Production, Private Consumption, and Coincident Index; (iv) Jan Thailand Retail Sales

Best regards,

FX Research & Strategy

AmBank Research, AmBank (M) Berhad

+603 2036 2255 (DL) +03 2031 7218 (Fax)

Level 15, Bangunan AmBank Group, 55 Jalan Raja Chulan, 50200 Kuala Lumpur

 

 

 

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FW: AmWatch : Yinson Holdings : Steady core performance amid Ca Rong Do limbo Buy, 30 Mar 2018

 

 

STOCK FOCUS OF THE DAY

Yinson Holdings : Steady core performance amid Ca Rong Do limbo       Buy

 

We maintain BUY on Yinson Holdings (Yinson) but with a lower sum-of-parts-based (SOP) fair value of RM4.72/share (from an earlier RM5.05)/share), which implies an FY19F PE of 15x, with the removal of the DCF of the group’s 49% -stake in the Ca Rong Do (CRD) floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO)  bareboat charter.

 

Excluding unrealised forex loss of RM62mil, Yinson’s FY18 core net profit of RM346mil was within our and street’s estimates. While we have fine-tuned Yinson’s FY19F earnings, FY20F earnings have been cut by 10% largely from the removal of contributions from the CRD FPSO, currently under a force majeure event against the backdrop of a territorial dispute between Vietnam and China.

 

Yinson’s FY18 DPS of 12 sen doubled our expectations, largely due to the surprise 4QFY18 payment of a 4 sen special dividend and a final 4 sen payout. The group had secured the US$102mil Lam Son FPSO termination compensation from PetroVietnam in December last year. Hence, we have raised our FY19F-FY21F DPS by 33% to 8 sen, which translates to a payout ratio of 25%.

 

QUICK TAKE

Prestariang : Software business still rolling           Buy

 

RETAIL RESEARCH

Stocks On Radar: Lee Swee Kiat Group, Hiap Teck Venture, GHL Systems, P.I.E. Industrial

 

ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

UK – Brexit remains the most significant influence

 

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS

EcoWorld : 1Q core earnings strengthen

HiapTeck : Sees sevenfold rise in Q2

BAssets : Proposes bonus issue

Adventa : Sees net profit doubling in FY18

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DISCLAIMER:

The information and opinions in this report were prepared by AmInvestment Bank Bhd. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. This report has been prepared for information purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. The directors and employees of AmInvestment Bank Bhd. Bhd may from time to time have a position in or with the securities mentioned herein. Members of the AmBank Group Bhd and their affiliates may provide services to any company and affiliates of such companies whose securities are mentioned herein. The information herein was obtained or derived from sources that we believe are reliable, but while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that stated facts are accurate and opinions fair and reasonable, we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. No liability can be accepted for any loss that may arise from the use of this report. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgment as of this date and are subject to change without notice.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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FW: [Maybank IB] Today's Research - Malaysia

 

 

header

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COMPANY
RESEARCH

Top Glove | Miniscule acquisition
Yen Ling Lee

Yinson Holdings | Results, DPS & FPSO Lam Son
Thong Jung Liaw

Eco World Development | Expect stronger 2HFY18
Wei Sum Wong

Eco World International | Results in line; higher sales target
Wei Sum Wong

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COMPANY RESEARCH

Malaysia

Company Update

Top Glove (TOPG MK)
by Yen Ling Lee

Share Price:

MYR9.75

Target Price:

MYR9.85

Recommendation:

Hold

Miniscule acquisition

Top Glove is buying a small medical supplies manufacturer for MYR3m cash (0.02% of Top Glove's market cap). We are neutral on the deal as the acquisition multiple is low at historical 5x PER, but will have insignificant impact to Top Glove's earnings (<0.1% to our projected FY8/19 net profit). Maintain our earnings forecasts, HOLD call and TP of MYR9.85 (25x PER; +2SD to mean).

FYE Aug (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

2,888.5

3,409.2

4,188.5

5,084.2

EBITDA

523.3

485.0

662.5

825.4

Core net profit

361.1

332.7

442.9

511.3

Core EPS (sen)

28.9

26.5

35.1

40.1

Core EPS growth (%)

27.9

(8.0)

32.3

14.1

Net DPS (sen)

14.5

14.5

17.6

20.0

Core P/E (x)

33.8

36.7

27.8

24.3

P/BV (x)

6.7

6.1

5.5

5.0

Net dividend yield (%)

1.5

1.5

1.8

2.1

ROAE (%)

21.1

17.4

20.9

21.7

ROAA (%)

13.5

11.9

11.5

10.6

EV/EBITDA (x)

9.6

14.4

20.8

16.7

Net debt/equity (%)

net cash

net cash

64.4

53.8

Malaysia

TP Revision

Yinson Holdings (YNS MK)
by Thong Jung Liaw

Share Price:

MYR3.76

Target Price:

MYR4.30

Recommendation:

Buy

Results, DPS & FPSO Lam Son

FY1/18 core earnings came in below our estimate, on lower-than-expected 4Q18 but in line with consensus. Yinson declared 6 sen DPS in 4Q18 (FY18: 10sen) and announced the FPSO Lam Son interim contract value, which adds 9sen to SOP-based TP. In the near term, we see further upside to earnings/ NPV as details on FPSO Layang are to be announced. Tender prospects are strong in 2018, a mid-term positive surprise. BUY.

FYE Jan (MYR m)

FY17A

FY18A

FY19E

FY20E

Revenue

764.2

910.2

1,113.4

1,114.1

EBITDA

283.8

645.0

771.4

771.7

Core net profit

219.5

341.6

294.0

279.2

Core EPS (sen)

20.6

31.4

26.9

25.5

Core EPS growth (%)

26.8

52.6

(14.3)

(5.1)

Net DPS (sen)

16.8

10.0

10.0

10.0

Core P/E (x)

18.3

12.0

14.0

14.7

P/BV (x)

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.4

Net dividend yield (%)

4.5

2.7

2.7

2.7

ROAE (%)

8.5

11.6

10.8

9.6

ROAA (%)

3.9

5.3

4.4

4.0

EV/EBITDA (x)

21.4

10.8

8.0

7.7

Net debt/equity (%)

114.7

90.1

72.9

57.3

Malaysia

TP Revision

Eco World Development (ECW MK)
by Wei Sum Wong

Share Price:

MYR1.00

Target Price:

MYR1.57

Recommendation:

Buy

Expect stronger 2HFY18

ECW's 1QFY10/18 net profit (+13% YoY) was within expectations and we expect earnings to pick up strongly in 2HFY18 with maiden profits from its 27% associate, ECWI (ECWI MK, HOLD). 4MFY18 locked-in sales of MYR602m were however below expectations due to seasonal factors and the lack of new launches. We maintain our earnings forecasts but lower our RNAV-TP to MYR1.57 (-14sen) on a lower P/RNAV peg of 0.55x (0.60 previously) as the sector enters another challenging year. Maintain BUY.

FYE Oct (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

2,546.4

2,924.7

3,862.2

4,821.5

EBITDA

595.1

605.6

687.3

883.8

Core net profit

129.3

113.1

169.8

325.3

Core EPS (sen)

5.4

3.9

5.8

11.0

Core EPS growth (%)

105.9

(28.1)

47.5

91.6

Net DPS (sen)

0.0

0.0

0.0

1.1

Core P/E (x)

18.4

25.6

17.3

9.1

P/BV (x)

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.6

Net dividend yield (%)

0.0

0.0

0.0

1.1

ROAE (%)

na

na

na

na

ROAA (%)

1.6

1.2

1.6

2.8

EV/EBITDA (x)

9.3

12.4

8.9

6.9

Net debt/equity (%)

60.4

71.4

71.7

67.0

Malaysia

Results Review

Eco World International (ECWI MK)
by Wei Sum Wong

Share Price:

MYR1.03

Target Price:

MYR1.10

Recommendation:

Hold

Results in line; higher sales target

EWI's 1QFY10/18 core net loss of MYR21m (-50% YoY) was in line but sales were below expectations due to the lack of new launches. Management has raised its sales target from MYR2.5b to MYR3b post- Wilmott Dixon (WD)'s Stage 1 acquisition. 2018 will be the tipping point for EWI with the handover of Blocks A & M at London City Island as well as Block A04 at Embassy Garden from April 2018 onwards. We maintain our earnings forecasts, RNAV-TP of MYR1.10 (0.75x P/RNAV) and HOLD rating for now.

FYE Oct (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

0.7

0.5

0.6

0.6

EBITDA

(37.6)

(53.3)

(89.1)

(91.1)

Core net profit

(220.1)

(87.6)

173.7

383.2

Core EPS (sen)

(89.3)

(5.8)

7.2

16.0

Core EPS growth (%)

nm

nm

nm

120.6

Net DPS (sen)

0.0

0.0

0.0

4.0

Core P/E (x)

nm

nm

14.2

6.5

P/BV (x)

2.4

0.6

0.9

0.8

Net dividend yield (%)

0.0

0.0

0.0

3.9

ROAE (%)

(408.0)

(6.6)

6.6

13.5

ROAA (%)

(35.9)

(4.5)

6.2

12.8

EV/EBITDA (x)

na

nm

nm

nm

Net debt/equity (%)

803.5

net cash

net cash

net cash

MACRO RESEARCH

MY: Traders' Almanac

NASDAQ – Formed a Reversal "Morning Star" Pattern
by Nik Ihsan Raja Abdullah

Technical Research

FBMKLCI slipped 1.52pts to 1,856.35 yesterday, led by declines in PMETAL, TM and GENT. Broader market remained negative with losers outpacing gainers by 546 to 330. A total of 1.88b shares worth MYR2.09b changed hands. After falling for two consecutive days, FBMKLCI is poised for a rebound today. The rally in overnight US markets should lend support to the local bourses.

NEWS

Outside Malaysia:

U.S: Consumer sentiment surges to highest since 2004. Consumer sentiment in March reached the highest level since 2004 as a solid labor market and growth expectations offset concerns about tariffs and stock-market volatility, a University of Michigan survey showed. Highlights of Michigan Sentiment (March, final) Sentiment index rose to 101.4 from 99.7 in Feb.; preliminary March reading was 102. Current conditions gauge, which measures Americans' perceptions of their finances, advanced to a record 121.2 (prelim. 122.8), from 114.9 in Feb. Expectations measure decreased to 88.8 (prelim. 88.6), from 90 in Feb. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.S: Trump may delay Seoul's trade pact until North Korea resolved. President Donald Trump said he may delay a revamped trade deal the U.S. reached with South Korea this week until after the nuclear confrontation with North Korea is resolved. "I may hold it up until after a deal is made with North Korea," Trump said during a speech in Richfield, Ohio. "You know why? Because it's a very strong card and I want to make sure everyone is treated fairly and we're moving along very nicely with North Korea." The new agreement was reached as Trump has been planning to meet with Kim Jong Un, the North Korean leader, later this spring. The president will need the support of the Seoul government in negotiations to get Kim to abandon his nuclear ambitions. (Source: Bloomberg)

Germany: Unemployment extended its decline in March as companies in Europe's largest economy boosted their labor force to keep up with bulging order books. The jobless rate dropped to a record low of 5.3% in March, the Federal Labor Agency in Nuremberg said. The number of people out of work plunged a seasonally adjusted 19,000 to 2.373 million. Germany has been a key beneficiary of buoyant global trade and domestic spending, and the Bundesbank says the economy's strong upturn probably continued in the first quarter of this year. While sentiment indicators have recently taken a hit amid mounting fears over U.S. protectionism, the high volume of orders accumulated in the second half of last year is likely to support manufacturing activity for now, according to the central bank. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.K: The strain on consumers from faster inflation, sluggish wage growth and Brexit uncertainty continues to take its toll on the economy, with house prices falling and spending weak. Nationwide Building Society said home values fell for a second straight month in March, and the Bank of England reported a bigger-than-forecast decline in mortgage approvals. Detailed statistics for the end of 2017 spelled out why households are under pressure, with real disposable incomes falling for the first time in almost a year. (Source: Bloomberg)

Japan: February factory output rebounded from a slump in the previous month, alleviating concern over a slowdown in the nation's economic growth. Industrial production rose 4.1% in February from January, when it fell 6.8%.Year-on-year output climbed 1.4% YoY. While industrial production has supported Japan's recent run of economic expansion, a slump in January stoked concern that growth may be hitting a speed bump. The tightest labor market in decades and record corporate profits have caused wages to rise somewhat, but it has yet to spur consumer spending and inflation significantly, leaving the economy dependent on exports. These slowed in February, partly due to a drop in sales to China because of the Lunar New Year holidays there. (Source: Bloomberg)

:

Metronic: Bags MRT contract. Metronic Global's wholly owned subsidiary Metronic Engineering S/B (MESB) bagged a MYR50m contract from Mass Rapid Transit Corp (MRT Corp) to serve as the primary contractor for the Building Management System For Underground Works of the Sungai Buloh – Serdang-Putrajaya MRT line. The contract alone is more than 125% of the company's latest annual published consolidated revenue. The job scope entails designing, supplying, installing, testing and commissioning of the Building Management System. The contract started in March 2018 and will be completed by July 2021. The group will fund the contract via internally generated funds and or existing working capital lines. (Source: The Sun Daily)

Sapura Energy: Sapura Energy and partners win hard-fought block in Mexico. A consortium in which Sapura Energy has a 30% stake has outbid six other bidders for an offshore oil block in Mexico. The consortium has been awarded Block 30 in Sureste Basin, a proven and prolific hydrocarbon province in the Gulf of Mexico. The basin is located about 70m, directly southwest of Premier Oil's world-class Zama discovery and to the north of the Amoca oil field. Its wholly-owned Sapura Exploration and Production S/B partners in the consortium are DEA Deutsche Erdoel Mexico (40%) and Premier Oil Plc (30%). (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Ekovest: Shareholders say no to take over offer for Iskandar Waterfront City. Ekovest shareholders have rejected the proposed take over offer for Iskandar Waterfront City Bhd for MYR1.50 per share. Independent adviser BDO Capital Consultants S/B has advised that the cash option for the take over offer is "not fair but reasonable" while the share exchange option is "fair and reasonable". (Source: The Sun Daily)

Farlim: Proposes 1-for-5 bonus issue. Farlim Group (Malaysia) has proposed a bonus issue of 28.07 million bonus shares on the basis of one bonus share for every five existing Farlim shares. The exercise will allow the company to utilise the amount standing to the credit of its share premium account as provided for under Section 618(3) of the Act, following the implementation of the no par value regime. The exercise is expected to be completed by the third quarter of 2018. (Source: The Sun Daily)

Prestariang: Bags MYR38m contract to supply software licences to IRB. The contract is under extended master licensing agreement (MLA) – a centralised procurement contract that allows all government agencies to purchase Microsoft products and services through Prestariang. The MLA will last for three years. Its wholly-owned subsidiary, Prestarian Systems S/B, received the letter of award on Wednesday. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

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