Trade Terms To Gradually Stabilise Near-Term

Economic Research	08 December 2016
China
Economic Update
Trade Terms To Gradually Stabilise Near-Term China’s Nov 2016 trade growth beat market expectations on the upside. Looking ahead, we believe China’s exports would continuously be supported by improving factory readings in advanced economies, and a low base effect. Nevertheless, muted recovery in emerging countries would limit the pace of rebound in 2017. Import growth would also be supported by lowered comparable base, while moderating economic growth would keep its growth rate at a modest level. The CNY is likely to remain weak amid rate hikes expected in the US, and rising capital outflow pressure, which may trigger tighter controls by the Government, in our view. Economist:  Zhang Fan| +8621 6288 9611 ext 105