RHB | US | Now You See It, Now You Don’t…

Economic Research	31 July 2015
US
Economic Highlights
Now You See It, Now You Don’t…   The first print on 2q15 real GDP growth of 2.3% annual rate was close to expectations (consensus and our forecast of 2.5%) and broadly in-line with the guidance from survey indicators (kindly refer to our June 11 note, “US: Improving but Uneasy?”). While the recovery in consumer spending of 2.9% was a tad better than our forecast, the -0.6% slippage in business fixed investment was much weaker than anticipated. The rest of the GDP-related categories were more-or-less consistent with our estimates, but the updated data on inventories, which seems more bloated through 2q15 (but the 2q15 figure is still subject to change), is likely to weigh on GDP growth in the near-term. Our rough exercise at this time implies that inventory change might detract at least 0.5%-point from headline growth in subsequent quarters. Economist:  Thomas Lam  | +65 6533 0389
To access our recent reports please click on the links below: 30 July 2015: Hike-On, Hike-Off 02 July 2015: Nowcasting and Forecasting 18 June 2015: Yellen and the Dots 11 June 2015: Improving but Uneasy? 11 May 2015: Some Elusive Details on the Labor Market… 06 May 2015: Early Stab at 2q15 Growth…