|
MY: UMW Oil & Gas (UMWOG MK)
Share
Price: MYR0.91
Target Price: MYR0.80
Recommendation: Sell
|
|
Thong
Jung Liaw
(603) 2297 8688
tjliaw@maybank-ib.com
|
Ivan
Yap
(603) 2297 8612
ivan.yap@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY13A
|
FY14A
|
FY15E
|
FY16E
|
|
Revenue
|
737.8
|
1,016.3
|
1,057.4
|
1,002.9
|
|
EBITDA
|
311.8
|
411.9
|
254.0
|
168.1
|
|
Core net profit
|
166.4
|
248.5
|
(9.2)
|
(102.3)
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
7.7
|
11.5
|
(0.4)
|
(4.7)
|
|
Core EPS growth
(%)
|
182.5
|
49.4
|
nm
|
nm
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
0.0
|
100.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
11.8
|
7.9
|
(214.8)
|
(19.2)
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.7
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
|
Net dividend yield
(%)
|
0.0
|
109.9
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
10.9
|
8.2
|
(0.3)
|
(3.3)
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
5.7
|
5.2
|
(0.2)
|
(1.6)
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
26.6
|
15.0
|
17.1
|
25.3
|
|
Net debt/equity
(%)
|
net cash
|
33.6
|
74.0
|
73.7
|
|
§ 1H15 results below ours and consensus
expectations on weaker 2Q, hit by lower DCRs and utilisation.
§ Expects a weaker 2H15 vs. 1H15; earnings to
see red in 2015-17 as low DCR and utilisation hit.
§ Cut TP to MYR0.80 (-57%), based on 0.8x
EV/replacement value (vs. 10% discount to replacement value previously).
|
MY: Alam Maritim
(AMRB MK)
Share Price: MYR0.40
Target Price: MYR0.35
Recommendation: Sell
|
|
Thong Jung Liaw
(603) 2297 8688
tjliaw@maybank-ib.com
|
Ivan Yap
(603) 2297 8612
ivan.yap@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY13A
|
FY14A
|
FY15E
|
FY16E
|
|
Revenue
|
447.4
|
396.7
|
319.1
|
329.1
|
|
EBITDA
|
88.7
|
81.7
|
88.6
|
77.7
|
|
Core net profit
|
68.0
|
56.5
|
34.7
|
36.2
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
7.3
|
6.1
|
3.7
|
3.9
|
|
Core EPS growth
(%)
|
16.4
|
(17.0)
|
(38.6)
|
4.3
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
5.4
|
6.5
|
10.6
|
10.1
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.6
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
|
Net dividend yield
(%)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
12.0
|
7.9
|
4.1
|
4.1
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
4.9
|
3.9
|
2.5
|
2.5
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
21.2
|
8.1
|
4.2
|
4.2
|
|
Net debt/equity
(%)
|
70.4
|
9.0
|
0.7
|
net cash
|
|
|
§ Subpar OSV associate’s earnings (-93% YoY)
dragged down group’s performance in 1H15.
§ Cut 2015-17 earnings by 30%-32% on lower
associate earnings.
§ TP lowered to MYR0.35 (-22%), on 9x 2016
PER (unchanged).
|
MY: Berjaya Auto
(BAUTO MK)
Share Price: MYR2.02
Target Price: MYR2.70
Recommendation: Buy
|
|
Ivan Yap
(603) 2297 8612
ivan.yap@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Apr (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,450.8
|
1,829.9
|
2,301.0
|
2,810.0
|
|
EBITDA
|
172.1
|
302.0
|
296.0
|
357.9
|
|
Core net profit
|
141.0
|
233.8
|
216.8
|
261.1
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
12.4
|
20.5
|
19.0
|
22.9
|
|
Core EPS growth
(%)
|
186.8
|
65.6
|
(7.3)
|
20.4
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
3.8
|
12.1
|
9.5
|
11.4
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
16.3
|
9.9
|
10.6
|
8.8
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
6.7
|
4.8
|
3.9
|
3.2
|
|
Net dividend yield
(%)
|
1.9
|
6.0
|
4.7
|
5.7
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
56.1
|
57.0
|
40.8
|
40.1
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
25.6
|
34.7
|
26.6
|
26.5
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
8.8
|
10.0
|
6.9
|
5.6
|
|
Net debt/equity
(%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
§ Market pricing in the negative JPY/MYR
impact to COGS but not the positive PHP/MYR impact to BAuto’s earnings.
§ Cut FY15-17 net profit forecasts by 19%-24%
for higher COGS from weaker MYR, slower sales amid uncertainties.
§ Maintain BUY; cut TP to MYR2.70 (-23%) on
unchanged 12.5x CY16 PER. Ex-cash CY16 PER of 8.7x; 4+% yields (50% DPR).
|
MY: IJM Corporation (IJM MK)
Share Price: MYR6.05
Target Price: MYR7.80
Recommendation: Buy
|
|
Li Shin Chai
(603) 2297 8684
lishin.c@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Mar (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
6,006.5
|
5,448.3
|
6,371.5
|
7,168.0
|
|
EBITDA
|
1,540.4
|
1,440.9
|
1,412.3
|
1,568.8
|
|
Core net profit
|
539.0
|
536.3
|
683.8
|
757.7
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
38.4
|
36.4
|
46.4
|
51.4
|
|
Core EPS growth
(%)
|
23.7
|
(5.2)
|
27.5
|
10.8
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
25.0
|
15.0
|
15.0
|
15.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
15.8
|
16.6
|
13.0
|
11.8
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.3
|
1.1
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
|
Net dividend yield
(%)
|
4.1
|
2.5
|
2.5
|
2.5
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
8.7
|
7.1
|
7.9
|
8.2
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
3.2
|
2.8
|
3.4
|
3.6
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
9.4
|
11.2
|
9.6
|
8.5
|
|
Net debt/equity
(%)
|
53.4
|
51.4
|
38.6
|
31.3
|
|
|
§ 1QFY3/16 results met our and consensus’
expectations.
§ Beneficiary of mega infrastructure
projects. Potential special dividend payout from disposal gains.
§ Maintain BUY with an unchanged RNAV-based
TP of MYR7.80.
|
MY: Telekom Malaysia
(T MK)
Share Price: MYR6.48
Target Price: MYR7.30
Recommendation: Hold
|
|
Chi Wei Tan
(603) 2297 8690
chiwei.t@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY13A
|
FY14A
|
FY15E
|
FY16E
|
|
Revenue
|
10,628.7
|
11,235.1
|
12,123.0
|
12,762.2
|
|
EBITDA
|
3,518.9
|
3,728.2
|
3,889.8
|
4,142.3
|
|
Core net profit
|
1,038.5
|
941.2
|
966.6
|
1,004.8
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
29.0
|
25.9
|
26.1
|
27.1
|
|
Core EPS growth
(%)
|
17.9
|
(10.8)
|
0.8
|
4.0
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
26.1
|
22.9
|
23.5
|
24.4
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
22.3
|
25.0
|
24.8
|
23.9
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
3.2
|
3.2
|
3.1
|
3.1
|
|
Net dividend yield
(%)
|
4.0
|
3.5
|
3.6
|
3.8
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
14.8
|
12.8
|
12.7
|
13.0
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
4.8
|
4.3
|
4.2
|
4.4
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
6.6
|
7.5
|
7.1
|
6.8
|
|
Net debt/equity
(%)
|
46.5
|
39.5
|
49.5
|
54.5
|
|
|
§ We deem 1H15 results as being in-line; 2H
is usually seasonally stronger for TM.
§ P1 losses widened in 2Q15; LTE network
rollout remains a work-in-progress.
§ No change to our earnings forecasts.
Maintain HOLD with an unchanged TP of MYR7.30.
|
MY: Genting Plantations
(GENP MK)
Share Price: MYR8.92
Target Price: MYR11.26
Recommendation: Buy
|
|
Chee Ting Ong
(603) 2297 8678
ct.ong@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY13A
|
FY14A
|
FY15E
|
FY16E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,384.0
|
1,642.9
|
1,586.8
|
1,785.1
|
|
EBITDA
|
431.4
|
562.4
|
517.5
|
637.3
|
|
Core net profit
|
305.1
|
379.9
|
372.1
|
471.0
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
40.2
|
49.3
|
48.3
|
61.1
|
|
Core EPS growth
(%)
|
(6.7)
|
22.6
|
(2.0)
|
26.6
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
47.8
|
10.0
|
9.7
|
12.2
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
22.2
|
18.1
|
18.5
|
14.6
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
2.0
|
1.8
|
1.6
|
1.5
|
|
Net dividend yield
(%)
|
5.4
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
1.4
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
8.9
|
10.4
|
9.2
|
10.7
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
6.4
|
7.3
|
6.4
|
7.5
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
19.7
|
14.1
|
13.9
|
11.4
|
|
Net debt/equity
(%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
1.7
|
2.7
|
|
|
§ 1H15 core net profit was below our and
street expectations on low CPO ASP and low FFB output.
§ Keeping our EPS forecasts unchanged for now
pending finalisation of our industry wide CPO price review.
§ Defensive Buy backed by solid assets with
RNAV of MYR14.08/sh. SOP-based TP of MYR11.26 (20% discount).
|
MY: TSH Resources (TSH
MK)
Share Price: MYR1.83
Target Price: MYR2.32
Recommendation: Hold
|
|
Li Shin Chai
(603) 2297 8684
lishin.c@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY13A
|
FY14A
|
FY15E
|
FY16E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,017.8
|
1,079.9
|
1,112.6
|
1,191.7
|
|
EBITDA
|
179.5
|
229.4
|
216.9
|
256.9
|
|
Core net profit
|
111.5
|
137.4
|
133.9
|
164.4
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
8.2
|
10.2
|
10.0
|
12.2
|
|
Core EPS growth
(%)
|
44.8
|
23.7
|
(2.1)
|
22.8
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
3.5
|
2.5
|
3.0
|
3.7
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
22.2
|
18.0
|
18.4
|
15.0
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
2.3
|
2.1
|
1.9
|
1.8
|
|
Net dividend yield
(%)
|
1.9
|
1.4
|
1.6
|
2.0
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
11.5
|
12.2
|
10.8
|
12.2
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
4.8
|
5.5
|
5.1
|
6.2
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
20.1
|
18.4
|
16.5
|
14.0
|
|
Net debt/equity
(%)
|
73.6
|
81.5
|
76.8
|
69.8
|
|
|
§ 2Q15 results were below our and consensus
expectations.
§ Potential downside to EPS forecasts and TP
pending adjustment to CPO ASP and FFB production.
§ Our EPS, TP and HOLD call are under review.
|
MY: Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia
(CAB MK)
Share Price: MYR11.14
Target Price: MYR12.20
Recommendation: Hold
|
|
Liew Wei Han
(603) 2297 8676
weihan.l@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY13A
|
FY14A
|
FY15E
|
FY16E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,555.1
|
1,635.1
|
1,685.2
|
1,746.9
|
|
EBITDA
|
259.6
|
293.6
|
289.2
|
304.0
|
|
Core net profit
|
183.9
|
211.6
|
206.4
|
215.9
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
60.2
|
69.2
|
67.5
|
70.6
|
|
Core EPS growth
(%)
|
(4.0)
|
15.0
|
(2.4)
|
4.6
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
60.1
|
69.3
|
67.0
|
70.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
18.5
|
16.1
|
16.5
|
15.8
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
12.4
|
10.9
|
11.1
|
10.7
|
|
Net dividend yield
(%)
|
5.4
|
6.2
|
6.0
|
6.3
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
64.2
|
72.2
|
66.7
|
69.2
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
31.5
|
33.6
|
31.0
|
31.6
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
14.4
|
12.2
|
11.8
|
11.2
|
|
Net debt/equity
(%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
§ 1H15 results came in below expectations.
§ Trimmed earnings by 3-6% for FY15-17 on
lower sales and higher cost assumptions.
§ Lowered DCF-TP to MYR12.20 (-MYR1). HOLD
maintained.
|
MY: Malaysia Oil & Gas
Recommendation:
Neutral
|
|
Thong Jung Liaw
(603) 2297 8688
tjliaw@maybank-ib.com
|
Ivan Yap
(603) 2297 8612
ivan.yap@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
|
|
§ Challenging
times ahead, JU operators are suffering from weakness in utilization and
DCRs, symptomatic of previous down-cycle’s low.
§ Cut
Perisai and UMWOG’s earnings by 39%-142% to reflect lower DCRs (-14%-32%)
and utilization rates (-9-30-ppts).
§ Lowered
Perisai and UMWOG’s TPs to MYR0.22 (-12%) and MYR0.80 (-57%) on a 0.8x
EV/replacement value method.
|
MY: Labour Statistics, Jun 2015
|
|
Suhaimi Ilias
(603) 2297 8682
suhaimi_ilias@maybank-ib.com
|
Zamros Dzulkafli
(603) 2082 6818
zamros.d@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
|
|
§ The number of unemployed rose but jobless rate
steady on sustained job growth
§ No change in our full-year average jobless
rate of 3.1% (2015 YTD: 3.1%; 2014: 2.9%)
§ Labour market trends and developments to watch
are retrenchments and decision on minimum wage review
|
MY: Technical
|
|
Lee Cheng Hooi
(603) 2297 8694
chenghooi.lee@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
§ SIME - On a very strong downward Wave 3 and 5
move.
§ FBMKLCI – Low of 1,503.68 seen? Sell the
rebound though.
§ Supports of 1,503 and 1,560 may be areas to
nibble.
§ Resistances of 1,563 and 1,624 will cap
rebounds.
|
MY: Other News
|
|
Malaysia
Research Team
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Outside
Malaysia
— U.S:
The Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence increased to 101.5 in
August
— U.S:
Home prices in 20 U.S. cities climbed 5% in June
— Germany:
Business confidence unexpectedly rose in August
— China:
Falls back on rate-cut lever to stem stock market rout
— Singapore:
Lee calls election as country celebrates 50th year
Other News
—
Aviation: Nik Azli to oversee Malaysia Airlines Bhd’s contracts
—
Hartalega: Plays down dollar factor
—
CLIQ Energy: Proceeds with Kazakh acquisition
|
|
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