Wednesday, August 19, 2015

[Maybank Kim Eng] Today's Research - Malaysia

19 Aug 2015, Wednesday


g Macro Research
- Malaysia: Technicals - A miniscule rebound move only
| Lee Cheng Hooi
- Malaysia: Other News -
| Malaysia Research Team



MY: Alliance Financial Group (AFG MK)
Share Price: MYR3.66
Target Price: MYR4.00
Recommendation: Hold


Desmond Ch'ng
(603) 2297 8680
desmond.chng@maybank-ib.com


Results Review: Shortfall in 1QFY16

FYE Mar (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Operating income
1,349.0
1,383.0
1,437.2
1,504.3
Pre-provision profit
720.8
736.1
770.8
809.7
Core net profit
557.8
530.8
532.3
550.7
Core FDEPS (MYR)
0.37
0.35
0.35
0.36
Core FDEPS growth(%)
4.1
(5.3)
0.3
3.5
Net DPS (MYR)
0.29
0.15
0.16
0.16
Core FD P/E (x)
10.0
10.5
10.5
10.1
P/BV (x)
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
Net dividend yield (%)
8.1
4.2
4.2
4.4
Book value (MYR)
2.74
2.95
3.14
3.34
ROAE (%)
13.6
12.3
11.5
11.2
ROAA (%)
1.2
1.0
1.0
0.9
§  1QFY16 net profit below expectations at 21% of our full-year forecast and consensus.
§  FY16/17/18 net profit forecasts lowered by 8/11/13% on higher credit cost and lower NOII assumptions.
§  TP rolled forward to CY16 and lowered to MYR4.00 (from MYR4.70). HOLD maintained.

MY: Padini (PAD MK)
Share Price: MYR1.35
Target Price: MYR1.35
Recommendation: Hold


Kevin Wong
(603) 2082 6824
kevin.wong@maybank-ib.com

Results Review: Earnings surprise in 4Q

FYE Jun (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue
866.3
977.9
1,029.0
1,119.5
EBITDA
147.6
142.5
152.0
174.6
Core net profit
90.9
80.2
89.8
103.3
Core EPS (sen)
13.8
12.2
13.7
15.7
Core EPS growth (%)
6.5
(11.8)
12.0
15.0
Net DPS (sen)
11.5
10.0
10.0
10.0
Core P/E (x)
9.8
11.1
9.9
8.6
P/BV (x)
2.3
2.2
2.1
1.9
Net dividend yield (%)
8.5
7.4
7.4
7.4
ROAE (%)
23.9
20.2
21.4
22.8
ROAA (%)
16.8
13.7
14.5
15.6
EV/EBITDA (x)
8.0
4.7
4.4
3.8
Net debt/equity (%)
net cash
net cash
net cash
net cash
§  4QFY15 net profit of MYR18m (+33% YoY) was above expectation; declared an interim net DPS of 2.5sen.
§  Maintain earnings forecasts, and FY16-17 net DPS forecasts at 10sen p.a.; yield attractive at 7.4%.
§  Maintain HOLD with an unchanged MYR1.35 TP.

MY: Star Media Group Bhd (STAR MK)
Share Price: MYR2.41
Target Price: MYR2.50
Recommendation: Hold


Samuel Yin Shao Yang
(603) 2297 8916
samuel.y@maybank-ib.com
Jade Tam
(603) 2297 8687
jade.tam@maybank-ib.com
Results Review: Surprises on DPS, but sustainable?

FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
Revenue
1,025.3
1,013.7
967.4
984.2
EBITDA
243.9
242.3
207.5
210.9
Core net profit
144.5
151.5
125.7
133.0
Core EPS (sen)
19.6
20.5
17.0
18.0
Core EPS growth (%)
(1.5)
4.8
(17.0)
5.8
Net DPS (sen)
15.0
18.0
15.0
16.0
Core P/E (x)
12.3
11.7
14.2
13.4
P/BV (x)
1.5
1.6
1.5
1.5
Net dividend yield (%)
6.2
7.5
6.2
6.6
ROAE (%)
12.6
13.1
10.9
11.4
ROAA (%)
8.5
9.0
7.7
8.5
EV/EBITDA (x)
5.8
5.7
6.8
6.6
Net debt/equity (%)
net cash
net cash
net cash
net cash
§  6M15 earnings in line, dividends positively surprised at 9sen.
§  That said, note that the 6M15 DPR was 109%. This cannot continue indefinitely.
§  Jul and Aug 2015 broad adex seem very weak. Maintain HOLD and MYR2.50 SOP-based TP.

MY: Magnum Berhad (MAG MK)
Share Price: MYR2.56
Target Price: MYR2.75
Recommendation: Hold


Samuel Yin Shao Yang
(603) 2297 8916
samuel.y@maybank-ib.com

Results Review: GST begins to bite

FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
Revenue
2,991.3
2,886.5
2,828.8
2,885.4
EBITDA
451.4
416.1
401.2
399.9
Core net profit
326.4
254.8
260.3
262.2
Core EPS (sen)
22.9
17.9
18.3
18.4
Core EPS growth (%)
40.5
(21.9)
2.3
0.7
Net DPS (sen)
18.8
20.0
15.0
15.0
Core P/E (x)
11.2
14.3
14.0
13.9
P/BV (x)
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.4
Net dividend yield (%)
7.3
7.8
5.9
5.9
ROAE (%)
11.1
10.4
10.6
10.4
ROAA (%)
6.8
6.9
7.1
7.2
EV/EBITDA (x)
11.4
10.7
10.4
10.3
Net debt/equity (%)
23.7
21.6
19.4
16.8
§  2Q15 results were in-line as they were weaker YoY and QoQ.
§  Near term challenging with GST impact still being felt.
§  Maintain HOLD and MYR2.75 DCF-based TP.

MY: Technicals

Lee Cheng Hooi
(603) 2297 8694
chenghooi.lee@maybank-ib.com

Technical Research: A miniscule rebound move only


§  IJM - On a very strong downward Wave 3 and 5 move.
§  FBMKLCI – A miniscule rebound move only.
§  Supports of 1,562 and 1,578 may be areas to nibble.
§  Resistances of 1,584 and 1,606 will cap rebounds.

MY: Other News

Malaysia Research Team

Economics Research:


Outside Malaysia
    U.S: New-home construction climbed in July to the highest level in almost eight years
    U.K: Inflation rate unexpectedly rose in July
    China: The People’s Bank of China tripled the amount of cash added to the financial system in its open-market operations
    China: Home prices rise in more cities as housing rebounds.
Other News
    Auto: Sales down 2.69% in July
    AirAsia: Sees USD160m in fuel-cost savings
    Wah Seong: Bags MYR189m deal
    Bina Puri: Clinches MYR100m contract to build hotel in Kenyir Lake

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