Tuesday, August 25, 2015

[Maybank Kim Eng] Today's Research - Malaysia

25 Aug 2015, Tuesday




MY: Harbour-Link Group (HALG MK)
Share Price: MYR2.19
Target Price: MYR3.65
Recommendation: Buy


Yen Ling Lee
(603) 2297 8691
lee.yl@maybank-ib.com


Results Review: Cheap Sarawak play

FYE Jun (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue
457.6
538.1
577.6
590.1
EBITDA
75.3
91.8
126.3
115.1
Core net profit
33.4
48.1
58.0
54.0
Core EPS (sen)
18.4
26.4
31.9
29.7
Core EPS growth (%)
9.0
43.9
20.5
(6.9)
Net DPS (sen)
2.5
5.5
6.4
5.9
Core P/E (x)
11.9
8.3
6.9
7.4
P/BV (x)
1.7
1.4
1.3
1.2
Net dividend yield (%)
1.1
2.5
2.9
2.7
ROAE (%)
15.5
18.8
19.9
16.6
ROAA (%)
7.2
8.9
9.6
8.4
EV/EBITDA (x)
5.3
5.4
3.1
3.1
Net debt/equity (%)
16.1
net cash
net cash
net cash
§  Softer 4QFY6/15 results in line with our expectation.
§  Stronger earnings ahead underpinned by logistics demand and mammoth construction projects in Sarawak.
§  Share price corrected by 25% in 3 weeks; stock trades at an undemanding ex-property CY16 PER of 7.8x. Maintain BUY.

MY: Eversendai Corp (EVSD MK)
Share Price: MYR0.72
Target Price: MYR1.00
Recommendation: Buy


Li Shin Chai
(603) 2297 8684
lishin.c@maybank-ib.com

Results Review: 2Q15: More variation costs

FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
Revenue
965.0
1,002.8
1,433.7
1,454.0
EBITDA
110.5
96.9
137.5
149.8
Core net profit
32.6
37.4
56.6
64.7
Core EPS (sen)
4.2
4.8
7.3
8.4
Core EPS growth (%)
(71.7)
14.6
51.4
14.3
Net DPS (sen)
1.0
1.3
1.5
1.7
Core P/E (x)
17.2
15.0
9.9
8.7
P/BV (x)
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
Net dividend yield (%)
1.4
1.7
2.0
2.3
ROAE (%)
4.0
4.3
6.1
6.6
ROAA (%)
2.0
2.0
2.8
3.0
EV/EBITDA (x)
10.2
9.3
7.7
7.0
Net debt/equity (%)
38.7
32.3
50.7
46.6
§  2Q15 results below estimates due to variation costs.
§  Positive orderbook replenishment outlook.
§  Reduced 2015 net profit forecast by 11%. Maintain BUY with unchanged TP of MYR1.00.

MY: NCB Holdings (NCB MK)
Share Price: MYR4.01
Target Price: MYR5.70
Recommendation: Buy


Yen Ling Lee
(603) 2297 8691
lee.yl@maybank-ib.com

Results Review: Positive results; stronger ahead

FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
Revenue
919.4
831.0
871.3
924.9
EBITDA
199.2
125.1
191.2
235.2
Core net profit
51.7
27.9
49.1
88.5
Core EPS (sen)
11.0
5.9
10.4
18.8
Core EPS growth (%)
(58.9)
(46.1)
76.1
80.3
Net DPS (sen)
8.0
7.0
7.0
8.0
Core P/E (x)
36.5
67.7
38.4
21.3
P/BV (x)
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
Net dividend yield (%)
2.0
1.7
1.7
2.0
ROAE (%)
3.7
2.0
3.5
6.1
ROAA (%)
2.8
1.3
2.2
4.0
EV/EBITDA (x)
8.6
9.6
9.9
7.9
Net debt/equity (%)
3.7
8.8
net cash
net cash
§  Positive 2Q15 results within expectation.
§  Looking forward to container tariff hike-driven earnings growth from 4Q15 onwards.
§  Maintain BUY, MYR5.70 TP; potential privatisation candidate.

MY: TIME dotCom (TDC MK)
Share Price: MYR5.52
Target Price: MYR5.50
Recommendation: Hold


Chi Wei Tan
(603) 2297 8690
chiwei.t@maybank-ib.com
Adrian Wong
(603) 2297 8675
adrian.wkj@maybank-ib.com
Company Update: No adverse guidance

FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
Revenue
548.3
596.3
658.4
717.4
EBITDA
193.2
217.8
256.8
279.8
Core net profit
260.2
127.3
159.2
171.6
Core EPS (sen)
45.4
22.2
27.7
29.9
Core EPS growth (%)
125.2
(51.1)
24.9
7.8
Net DPS (sen)
0.0
5.6
80.4
8.3
Core P/E (x)
12.2
24.9
19.9
18.5
P/BV (x)
1.6
1.3
1.5
1.4
Net dividend yield (%)
0.0
1.0
14.6
1.5
ROAE (%)
11.6
5.8
7.2
8.1
ROAA (%)
10.0
5.0
6.1
6.8
EV/EBITDA (x)
10.0
12.0
11.7
10.8
Net debt/equity (%)
net cash
net cash
net cash
net cash
§  Timing of Sukuk-raising mainly opportunistic; no imminent acquisition in the near term for now.
§  Strength in voice segment due to renewed focus on enterprise; overall business outlook remains intact.
§  Maintain HOLD, TP unchanged at MYR5.50.

MY: IOI Corporation (IOI MK)
Share Price: MYR3.93
Target Price: MYR3.85
Recommendation: Hold


Chee Ting Ong
(603) 2297 8678
ct.ong@maybank-ib.com

Results Review: Hurt by weak Ringgit

FYE Jun (MYR m)
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
Revenue
13,516.5
12,664.1
11,621.0
12,352.4
EBITDA
2,791.2
2,376.3
847.4
1,882.2
Core net profit
1,659.6
1,549.4
860.1
1,183.3
Core FDEPS (sen)
25.8
24.0
13.3
18.3
Core FDEPS growth(%)
(9.2)
(6.9)
(44.6)
37.6
Net DPS (sen)
15.5
20.0
9.0
9.2
Core FD P/E (x)
15.2
16.4
29.5
21.5
P/BV (x)
1.8
4.2
5.0
4.5
Net dividend yield (%)
3.9
5.1
2.3
2.3
ROAE (%)
12.6
15.7
15.5
22.1
ROAA (%)
7.1
7.9
6.0
8.7
EV/EBITDA (x)
14.2
15.8
35.9
16.0
Net debt/equity (%)
32.3
58.6
96.1
80.9
§  FY6/15 results within our estimates but below street.
§  MYR weakened another 12% against USD since 30 June. Expect more potential forex losses in 1QFY6/16.
§  Maintain HOLD given limited catalyst; MYR3.85 TP.

MY: Felda Global Ventures (FGV MK)
Share Price: MYR1.21
Target Price: MYR1.94
Recommendation: Hold


Chee Ting Ong
(603) 2297 8678
ct.ong@maybank-ib.com

Results Review: Expect a tougher 2H15

FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
Revenue
12,568.0
16,434.3
16,065.2
16,672.2
EBITDA
1,593.3
1,293.9
1,117.8
1,258.9
Core net profit
14.8
95.7
342.3
442.7
Core EPS (sen)
0.4
2.6
9.4
12.1
Core EPS growth (%)
(97.9)
545.6
257.5
29.3
Net DPS (sen)
16.0
10.0
5.3
6.1
Core P/E (x)
297.7
46.1
12.9
10.0
P/BV (x)
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
Net dividend yield (%)
13.2
8.3
4.3
5.0
ROAE (%)
0.2
1.5
5.3
6.6
ROAA (%)
0.1
0.5
1.6
2.1
EV/EBITDA (x)
11.6
9.0
7.6
6.5
Net debt/equity (%)
net cash
18.8
22.5
14.8
§  1H15 results below expectations on poor plantation and downstream earnings, mitigated by stable sugar earnings.
§  2H15 outlook remains challenging amid low CPO ASP, which is below FGV’s cost of production, pressuring earnings.
§  EPS, TP and HOLD recommendation under review.

MY: Leading Indicator, June 2015

Suhaimi Ilias
(603) 2297 8682
suhaimi_ilias@maybank-ib.com
Zamros Dzulkafli
(603) 2082 6818
zamros.d@maybank-ib.com
Economics Research: Improved, but headwinds rising


§  Indices of leading and coincident economic indicators increased in June 2015 vs the declines in May 2015
§  But they slowed on 3MMA basis, pointing to softening economic growth momentum
§  As more headwinds buffeting the economy beyond the GST impact i.e. financial market and currency volatilities amid external uncertainties and weak commodity prices

SG: Singapore CPI, Jul ‘15

Suhaimi Ilias
(603) 2297 8682
suhaimi_ilias@maybank-ib.com
Zamros Dzulkafli
(603) 2082 6818
zamros.d@maybank-ib.com
Economics Research: Falling consumer prices


§  Consumer prices continued to fall in Jul 2015 by -0.4% YoY (June 2015: -0.3% YoY).
§  But core inflation (CPI ex-accommodation and private road transport) edged higher to +0.4% YoY (June 2015: +0.2% YoY).
§  We revised our 2015 headline CPI forecast to -0.5%-0.0% from 0.0%-0.5% previously (2015 YTD: -0.4%).

MY: Technicals

Lee Cheng Hooi
(603) 2297 8694
chenghooi.lee@maybank-ib.com

Technical Research: Relentless selling on the FBMKLCI


§  PBBANK - On a very strong downward Wave 3 and 5 move.
§  FBMKLCI – Index is hit with relentless selling.
§  Supports of 1,490 and 1,526 will be weaker.
§  Resistances of 1,532 and 1,583 will cap rebounds.

MY: Other News

Malaysia Research Team

Economics Research:


Outside Malaysia
    U.S: Fed credibility test looms as market doubts September rate rise
    Asia: Central banks from India to South Korea said they’re ready to offset market volatility
    Korea: Park says South Korea won’t back off as crisis hits markets
Other News
    Genting Malaysia: Issues MYR2.4b notes
    Sime Darby: Mulls ways to strengthen balance sheet
    Asia Media: Nod for oil palm venture
    Oversea Enterprise: Plans vegetarian restaurant

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