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Economic
Research
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5
April 2017
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Thailand
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Economic Outlook
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Thailand’s GDP slowed to +3% YoY in 4Q16, undermined by a
pullback in private consumption and sharply lower tourist arrivals. Going
forward, things are looking up, with the brighter external outlook set to
prop up Thailand’s firming domestic growth. We reiterate our projection for
2017 GDP to grow 3.7%. The reasons for our confidence include:
1. Export recovery should continue to be supported by
fiscal stimulus in G3 (US, Japan, EU) economies, and stabilising commodity
prices;
2. Strong prospects for a significant increase in
private investments, especially in areas related to Thailand’s infrastructure
masterplan;
3. Rising private consumption following the completion
of the mourning period for the late king;
4. Continuation of government-led mega infrastructure
construction works.
With
the return of export growth, we believe that the Government may tone down its
stimulus measures and focus on rebalancing the economy for more balanced
growth going forward.
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Wednesday, April 5, 2017
External Upswing Helps Smoothen Domestic Transition
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