MARC
has affirmed Malaysia’s sovereign rating of AAA with a stable outlook based on
its national scale. The AAA rating reflects MARC’s opinion on the sovereign’s
ability to meet its local currency obligations. It represents the sovereign’s
ordinal ranking of creditworthiness within the country and excludes foreign
currency transfer and convertibility risks. It is based solely on an analysis
of information in the public domain. Malaysia has no local currency debt rated
by MARC.
Malaysia’s
AAA rating is supported by its track record of economic resilience that is
underpinned by credible institutions, as well as proactive and practical
economic management. It is among the most globally competitive nations in the
world, and continues to score relatively well in the government effectiveness
and regulatory quality components of the World Bank’s governance indicators.
Its macroeconomic fundamentals remain sound, due in part to successful economic
diversification efforts. In addition, financial sector reforms in the aftermath
of the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) have helped ensure financial stability,
which is critically important to maintain economic resilience. There have been
minimal spillovers to the real economy from episodic financial market
volatility, thanks to exchange rate flexibility, adequate buffers, a strong
banking system, and a deep and diversified financial market.
Another
rating support is Malaysia’s sustainable and strong external position, thanks
to a history of current account (CA) surpluses. The surpluses also reflect
Malaysia’s economic resilience. Over the 2011-2016 period, for example,
Malaysia’s CA surpluses had averaged 4.8% of GDP, ahead of Hong Kong and South
Korea – its rating peers in MARC’s sovereign rating universe. There are,
however, concerns that the CA is heading toward deficit territory as the
surpluses have been narrowing. Notwithstanding these concerns, we are not
overly worried about Malaysia’s external vulnerability, at least over the short
term. Malaysia has a strong policy framework. It is not reliant on external
funding, and has a positive net international investment position (December 2016:
6.6% of GDP). According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Malaysia’s
external position (in 2015) was stronger than warranted, thanks to fundamentals
and desirable policies.
Malaysia’s
strong and well-supervised banking system is another rating support. Banks are
highly capitalised overall, with ratios remaining on a rising trend. The sector
is profitable, though profitability has moderated with slower economic growth.
The current business outlook has also somewhat affected borrowing sentiment. In
addition, the pace of credit growth has moderated as a result of well-targeted
macro-prudential policies. Meanwhile, the system’s net impaired loans ratio is
stable, and its loan loss coverage ratio remains above the 90% level. We see
bank profitability moderating further due to expected slower loan growth and
weaker capital market activities going forward. Our analysis suggests that the
leverage position of the non-financial corporate sector remains manageable on
an aggregate basis. As of 3Q2016, the sector’s average and median aggregate
debt-to-equity (DE) ratios stood at 0.4x and 0.2x, respectively.
Malaysia’s
fiscal performance remains a rating constraint, especially with oil prices
remaining low and gross domestic product (GDP) growth expected to remain below
growth trend going forward. In response to the gradual fall in central
government revenue as a percentage of GDP, the government introduced the Goods
and Services Tax (GST) in April 2015 to expand its revenue base. In addition to
broadening the revenue base, expenditure rationalisation efforts have led to
enhanced efficiency and effectiveness in public spending. The subsidy
rationalisation programme, for example, has helped to reduce wastage. Malaysia
did meet its 2016 fiscal deficit target of 3.1% of GDP. However, the fact that
the deficit had reached 3.8% in the first three quarters of the year suggests
that 2016 had been a challenging year. Going forward, there are concerns about
pressure on the operating balance.
Another
rating constraint is the government’s high level of debt, though it should be
lauded for successfully keeping its domestic debt at about five percentage
points below the legally mandated 55% of GDP cap. Total government debt has
also been kept below 55% of GDP. Meanwhile, the maturity profile of government
debt has improved over the last five years. As of September 2016, total
outstanding government debt for maturities of three years and above stood at
70.6%, compared to 62.0% just five years earlier. Government foreign currency-denominated
debt remains low at around 3% of total debt. However, with foreigners holding
around 34% of outstanding ringgit-denominated Malaysian government securities
as of end-2016, the domestic financial market is exposed to sudden large
foreign investor portfolio re-allocations. Nevertheless, the impact should be
limited considering Malaysia’s deep and liquid domestic capital market coupled
with the capacity of domestic institutional investors to absorb the selling by
foreign investors.
Malaysia’s
high household debt, which is among the highest in Asia, is also a rating
constraint. In 2016, it improved slightly to 88.4% of GDP from the previous
year’s 89.1%. Loans to the household sector make up a significant 56.8%
(December 2016) of total loans in the banking system. In addition, house
financing is a key component of household debt, and non-performing loans (NPL)
associated with loans for residential property purchases have been creeping
upwards. Pre-emptive measures to dampen robust residential property loans
growth, as well as improve household debt sustainability, have been
implemented. While housing price inflation remains on a moderating trend, house
financing will likely continue to be a major growth driver of household debt.
MARC will continue to monitor financial sector risks coming from the household
loans sector, especially in an environment of slower economic growth.
Contacts: Quah
Boon Huat, +603-2082 2231/ boonhuat@marc.com.my;
Afiq Akmal Mohamad, +603-2082 2274/ afiq@marc.com.my;
Nor Zahidi Alias, +603-2082 2277/ zahidi@marc.com.my.
April 18, 2017
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