Tuesday, October 11, 2016

After recent data (including NFP) and Fed-speak, we lift short-term target for 10T with an end-month target of 1.85%, but maintain end-year 2016 target of 1.75%. As for this week, short term drivers include release of Sep FOMC meeting minutes, retail sales numbers and

Market Roundup
  • After recent data (including NFP) and Fed-speak, we lift short-term target for 10T with an end-month target of 1.85%, but maintain end-year 2016 target of 1.75%. As for this week, short term drivers include release of Sep FOMC meeting minutes, retail sales numbers and producer price indices. Upcoming UST auctions this week include 3T ($24 billion), 10T ($20 billion) and 30T ($12 billion).
  • Ringgit govvies ended a tad weaker, amid thinner liquidity on Monday. Daily volume was low, totaling RM 1.0 billion in contrast to RM2.5 billion registered last Friday. On top of anticipation of further pricing in of future Bank Negara loosening, short tenor MGS should remain supported this week. We maintain short-term 3-year MGS target at 2.79%.
  • Thai government bonds were under selling pressure, along with declines in stock markets, as sentiment was weighed by concerns over the King’s health, after the news reported that the King’s condition was not stable after treatment over the weekend. Similarly, USD/THB trended higher from 34.89, to 35.15 early this week.
  • Indonesian government bond market was pressured by net selling mode heading to auction day. We saw bonds were given with small volume. Market moved sideways on Monday and potentially rebound if the auction performs well. Meantime, daily volume increased to IDR8.13 trillion and was dominated by bonds maturing in over 10 years (34%) and bonds maturing between 1 and 5 years (34%).

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