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Regional
Telecommunications Sector Update: Staying
Connected- April 2014
RHB’s recent telecoms workshop
with Huawei was well-received by investors keen to understand the pressing
issues facing telcos. We continue to advocate a stock-picking strategy focusing
on telcos with: i) good operational execution, ii) discernible catalysts, and
iii) decent valuations relative to their growth prospects. Our top BUYS in the
region are DiGi, M1, Sarana Menara Nusantara and Telekomunikasi Indonesia
(Telkom). Top sell is Maxis.
¨ Up close and personal with Huawei. We recently organised an exclusive workshop with Huawei, a leading
Chinese networking and telecommunications equipment company. The workshop was
attended by over 20 fund managers and investors in Malaysia who learned about
technological shifts, spectrum issues and how changing customer behaviour is
shaping the way telcos position their data offerings amid stiff competition
from over-the-top (OTT) providers. More importantly, most participants walked
away with a better understanding of the key challenges telcos are facing in monetising
data. The highlight of the event was a tour of Huawei’s laboratory to witness
the actual workings of a mobile operator.
¨ Telekom Malaysia or TM (T MK, NEUTRAL, FV: MYR5.50) pays a controlling
premium for Packet One Networks (P1). We view TM’s acquisition of a controlling stake in P1 as opportunistic
to complement its fixed broadband offering, albeit marginally EPS-dilutive in
the medium term. The deal allows TM to expand its addressable market for
broadband subscribers with a converged mobile offering. Our concern is the
additional MYR1.65bn capital committed to fund the expansion of the 4G network,
which could suppress capital management opportunities. Our top pick for
exposure to Malaysia telcos is DIGI (DIGI MK, BUY, TP: MYR5.60).
¨ Thai telco stocks extended its gains in March, posting an 11% return on average with the worst of the street
politics possibly behind and foreign investors taking fresh positions on the
Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). The foreign shareholding levels (excluding
strategic holdings) of Advance Info Service (ADVANC TB, BUY, TP: THB248.00) and
Total Access Communication (DTAC TB, BUY, TP: THB116.00) are off their lows, at
24% and 23% at end-1Q14 respectively, consistent with the SET reversing its
five consecutive months of net foreign selling position in March.
¨ World Cup goes to the red camp. SingTel (ST SP, NEUTRAL, TP: SGD3.55) has landed the exclusive rights to
the 2014 World Cup which it must share with StarHub (STH SP, NEUTRAL, TP:
SGD4.60) under the content carriage guidelines. It is reasonable to expect that
SingTel paid a tidy sum for the rights, as viewers will have to pay 60% more
vis-à-vis the 2010 rights to watch the 64 matches on an ala carte basis.
The high subscription price will lead to reduced demand from viewers, making it
difficult for SingTel to defray the cost of the rights, in our view. Our
preferred exposure is M1 (M1 SP, BUY, TP: SGD3.65).
¨ Check out the Indonesian handset plays. The smartphone boom in China has contributed to a sharp re-rating of
handset component makers/value chain suppliers such as Truly (732 HK, BUY, TP:
HKD7.10) and Sunny Optical (2382 HK, BUY, TP: HKD10.30). We see a similar trend
in Indonesia, with the explosive growth in smartphone adoption likely to prompt
a re-rating of leading smartphone retailers such as Tiphone Mobile (TELE IJ,
BUY, TP: IDR1,000) and Era Swasembada (ERAA IJ, BUY, TP: IDR1,700)
Best
regards,
RHB
OSK Indonesia Research Institute
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