China:
An Economic Hard Landing is Unlikely
- The Chinese economy has been slowing since 2010, with growth decelerating further in the first quarter of this year.
- Recent economic indicators showed continued slowdown in real estate investment and downside risks to growth, including a lower-than-expected external demand and weak industrial activity.
- The spate of weak data, in tandem with people’s concerns about problems such as soaring local debt, financial deleveraging, shadow banking, property sector risk and onshore bond defaults have led some observers to forecast China’s recession or “hard landing”.
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