Friday, April 11, 2014

Affin Daily Insight (LV) - 11 April 2014 - PLANTATION / ECONOMY - IPI / ECONOMY - ASEAN OUTLOOK / DMR


Top Calls

Sector Update Plantation (NEUTRAL, maintain)

- Record March production, stock up 2%

After declining over the last four months, CPO production in March 2014 surged to 1.50m MT
the highest ever in the month of March - as yields rebounded. The unexpected strong recovery in CPO production coupled with weaker exports contributed to a 1.9% increase in palm oil closing stocks to 1.69m MT. Sentiment on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives seem to have turned bearish. The strength of the upturn in FFB yields and CPO production in coming months as well as recovery in exports ahead of Ramadhan in June/July will have a strong bearing on prices. Prospects for increased domestic usage for biodiesel production in Malaysia and Indonesia will continue to underpin prices, which may also surge if forecasts of an El Nio event in 2H2014 materialises. The soybean oil premium over CPO has also widened to US$130/MT. Prospects of another record US soybean planting in 2014 when South American stocks are high is however a key downside risk to sentiment and prices in the coming months. We maintain our 2014-16 CPO ASP assumption of RM2,700/MT, sector NEUTRAL rating and stock recommendations.


Other Calls

Economy IPI

- Robust manufacturing output of 9.8% yoy in February

Economy ASEAN Outlook Weekly Wrap (4 10 April 2014)

- Bank Indonesia kept policy rate unchanged at 7.5%

Debt Market Research

- Sustained volume, sustained flattening



For important disclosures, please refer to the Disclosure section at the end of the individual linked research reports.

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