Wednesday, March 23, 2016

[Maybank IB] Today's Research - Malaysia






Astro Malaysia | Stable but still not cheap
Samuel Yin Shao Yang









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Malaysia | Up on capital flows
Suhaimi Ilias







Malaysia | Index is poised to test 1,727
Lee Cheng Hooi








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COMPANY RESEARCH





Results Review





Astro Malaysia (ASTRO MK)
by Samuel Yin Shao Yang





Share Price:
MYR3.00
Target Price:
MYR2.80
Recommendation:
Hold




Stable but still not cheap

FY1/16 core net profit and dividends were within expectations. While we opine that it is admirable that ASTRO managed to grow its subscriber base in this weak consumer climate, it continues to strike a cautious tone on its outlook. Furthermore, it has already hedged its content cost at forex rates above MYR4:USD1 which will limit content cost savings when the MYR recovers. Maintain HOLD and MYR2.80 DCF-based TP.



FYE Jan (MYR m)
FY15A
FY16A
FY17E
FY18E
Revenue
5,231.4
5,475.4
5,499.1
5,734.5
EBITDA
1,808.3
1,940.6
1,803.0
1,977.5
Core net profit
519.4
672.5
592.6
776.1
Core FDEPS (sen)
10.0
12.9
11.4
14.9
Core FDEPS growth(%)
15.9
29.4
(11.9)
31.0
Net DPS (sen)
11.0
12.0
9.0
12.0
Core FD P/E (x)
30.1
23.3
26.4
20.2
P/BV (x)
22.5
26.0
21.6
17.9
Net dividend yield (%)
3.7
4.0
3.0
4.0
ROAE (%)
79.5
103.9
89.5
97.1
ROAA (%)
7.5
9.9
8.1
10.1
EV/EBITDA (x)
9.6
9.1
11.0
9.9
Net debt/equity (%)
309.9
nm
nm
446.2


Samuel Yin Shao Yang






MACRO RESEARCH






Economics Research
by Suhaimi Ilias


Up on capital flows





External reserves increased USD0.5b to USD96.1b (MYR412.3b) at 15 Mar 2016 from USD95.6b (MYR410.5b) at 29 Feb 2016 amid intensifying net foreign buying of Malaysian equities. The latest count is equivalent to 8.4 months of retained imports and 1.2x of short-term external debt.












Technical Research
by Lee Cheng Hooi


Index is poised to test 1,727





The FBMKLCI gained 6.39 points to close at 1,724.75 yesterday, while the FBMEMAS and FBM100 gained 34.69 points and 37.90 points, respectively. In terms of market breadth, the gainer-to-loser ratio was 403-to-466, while 353 counters were unchanged. A total of 2.42b shares were traded valued at MYR2.88b.







NEWS


Outside Malaysia:

U.S: House prices climbed 0.5% MoM in January as inventory tight. Prices climbed 6% YoY. The low number of homes on the market is holding back home sales and driving up prices. Closings on purchases of existing homes decreased 7.1% to a 5.08 million annual rate in February, a three-month low, after a 5.47 million pace in January, the National Association of Realtors reported. (Source: Bloomberg)

E.U: Deflation risks persist even as Markit sees growth. Economic growth in the euro area probably picked up at the end of the first quarter, according to Markit Economics, which also said that concerns remain about the health of the region. Markit’s composite Purchasing Managers Index of manufacturing and services rose to a three-month high of 53.7 in March from 53 in February. That keeps the measure well above the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction. (Source: Bloomberg)

Germany: Investor confidence rebounded from a 16-month low after market turmoil calmed and the European Central Bank announced fresh euro-area stimulus. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months ahead, advanced to 4.3 in March from 1 in the previous month. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.K: Inflation rate was unexpectedly unchanged in February, remaining far below the Bank of England’s 2% goal. Annual consumer-price growth was at 0.3%, the Office for National Statistics said. Inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held at 1.2%. Inflation has been below the BOE’s target for more than two years, largely due to lower oil prices. With Governor Mark Carney warning about international risks to the U.K. economy, weak price growth is giving him leeway to keep interest rates at a record low. (Source: Bloomberg)





Other News:

Top Glove: Moves into healthcare business. Top Glove Corp, the world’s largest rubber glove manufacturer, is making a foray into the healthcare business via a joint venture (JV) with DHS Emergency Asia Sdn Bhd. The JV, when it is up and running, will have a total paid-up capital of MYR2m. Top Glove will provide 75% of the capital, while the rest will come from DHS. The JV is a long-term investment plan for the group and would also provide medical facilities to serve the large number of the group’s employees and the surrounding community. Its wholly owned subsidiary – Top Glove Sdn Bhd (TGSB) – had entered into a JV agreement with DHS to establish TG GD Medical Clinic Sdn Bhd. (Source: The Star)

CCM: Plans new plant and warehouse. Duopharma Biotech (CCMD), a maker of medicine and pharmaceutical products, is planning to build new manufacturing and warehousing facilities in Klang, Selangor, for a total cost of MYR140.8m. The construction of the new facility was necessary to keep up with the growing current operations and help expand the current portfolio into specialty products. The completion of the proposed state-of-the-art plant will cater for the future expansion plans of CCMD, including expanding its production capacity by 40% to 50%. MYR103.7m would be allocated for the new plant – including machinery – and MYR37.1m for the new warehouse with roof-top car park. (Source: The Star)

Sentoria: Clinches construction contracts worth MYR110m. Property developer cum resort operator Sentoria Group bagged two development projects in Kuantan and Sepang that are collectively worth some MYR110m. Its wholly-owned subsiiart Sentoria Bina Sdn Bhd (SBSB) had accepted the letter of award (LoA) from HA Properties Sdn Bhd yesterday. The LoA is for a contract for the design and build, including sales and marketing of a proposed development of 30.35ha of government land situated in Kuala Kuantan, Pahang. The project is expected to commence on March 21 this year and to be completed by March 31, 2020. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

IOI Corp: Could face downside risk if RSPO cert suspended. Roundable for Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) complaint’s panel is reported to have recommended the suspension to its board of governors following IOI Corp’s alleged non-compliance with some of RSPO’s rules on possessing environmental permits and clearing of fragile land in Indonesia. The RSPO board is expected to make a decision in the next few weeks and if certification is suspended, the company will be unable to claim that its products are certified as sustainable. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)


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