Regional Daily, Maybank KE (2014-10-07)

Daily 07 October 2014 TOP VIEWS Singapore Strategy | NEUTRAL Macau Gaming | OVERWEIGHT Thai Market Compass TCL Communication (2618 HK) | TP Revision Singapore Strategy Strategy Mine The Market NEUTRAL on market with 2015 FSSTI target of 3,440 (14x FY15E P/E). Top large-cap picks: DBS, FR, Ezion, POSH and Wilmar. At 13.2x FY15E P/E against 10% EPS CAGR for FY15E-16E, market is unattractive. No fresh leads expected. Bottom-up stock-picking recommended. Banks, especially DBS, to shine as rates rise. Property to remain in doldrums. Take refuge in selective OSV players as dynamics shift. (FULL REPORT WILL BE OUT SOON) Macau Gaming Sector update Dismal Sep GGR, but odds still good Sep 14 Macau GGR fell 12% YoY. Oct 14 likely to be still challenging. That said, anti-graft drive may be winding down and mortgage rules have been substantially relaxed. Click here for report » Thai Market Compass Strategy SET resilience tested; Liquidity still flush �X Since end of Sep we have been seeing negative economic data print: contracting exports, shrinking consumption, stubborn food inflation. �X SET for most part shrugged off negative news, dropping just 0.9% during 29 Sep to 3 Oct. But market now is in correction mode as domestic investors are disappointed foreigners are not piling back in. Technical pundits now saying SET could go to 1520 and 1500, a 6.25% correction from the recent 1600 peak. �X We believe this is temporary and recommend investors to accumulate. While SET at nearly 2xSD > LTM PER is still expensive vs its 2015F earnings growth outlook of 11% YoY, domestic liquidity has limited investment options, thus will continue to support the market. We also expect tax efficiency schemes like LTF & RMF to receive subscriptions providing liquidity to mutual funds. Our stock picks: BBL, BTS, CPN, DCC, INTUCH, TISCO, BGH, MINT, WHA & CK. Click here for report » TCL Communication (2618 HK) Still a good story Share Price: HKD9.22 | Target Price: HKD11.00 (+19%) | MCap (USD): 1.4B | ADTV (USD): 4M Lowering FY14/15 EPS forecasts by 13%/18% to factor in ASP erosion arising from product mix and competition, as well as the potential lower-than-expected profitability. Our revised TP of HKD11 (from HKD12) based on 8x FY15F PER vs 10x FY14 PER previously as TCL has largely reaped benefit of restructuring and is now entering stable growth. Stock remains attractively valued and may potentially re-rate should it withstand the increasingly competitive smartphone market in the global EM market. Click here for report » COMPANY NOTES Filinvest Land Inc. (FLI PM) | TP Revision CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB MK) | Company Update Top Glove (TOPG MK) | Company Update Vietnam Monthly View Filinvest Land Inc. (FLI PM) Medium term strong earnings growth Share Price: PHP1.52 | Target Price: PHP2.40 (+58%) | MCap (USD): 824M | ADTV (USD): 0.5M Slight decrease in NAV estimate and target price as we roll over forecasts to 2015, maintain BUY. Strong earnings visibility with three-year CAGR of 20.5%. Robust earnings growth will be driven by aggressive expansion in office and retail spaces while residential segment continues to anchor earnings. (FULL REPORT WILL BE OUT SOON) CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB MK) Delay in Indonesian bill is a relief Share Price: MYR7.38 | Target Price: MYR7.60 (+3%) | MCap (USD): 19.5B | ADTV (USD): 13M Delay in Indonesian bill buys time for Maybank and CIMB, maintaining shareholding status quo for several more years. Focus will now be on the merger announcement tomorrow, but this could be a non-event. HOLD maintained with an unchanged TP of MYR7.60 (CY14 P/BV of 1.7x). Click here for report » Top Glove (TOPG MK) Still unexciting Share Price: MYR4.90 | Target Price: MYR4.70 (-4%) | MCap (USD): 937M | ADTV (USD): 0.8M Expect flattish 4QFY8/14 results on higher gas cost. Earnings growth is muted given its cautious capacity expansion and cost pressure. Maintain HOLD and TP of MYR4.70 (15x CY15 PER). Click here for report » Vietnam Monthly View Strategy Continue to advocate buying on dips The VN-Index fell 5.9% in Sep14, largely skewed by ETF rebalancing and foreign investors taking profit. Opportunities to buy on dips emerged in Sep14. VIC (-17.9%) and GAS (-13.4%) plunged on profit taking. Foreign investors sold a net USD40m during the month. However, if ETF rebalancing trades and profit taking by VIC CB holders were excluded, foreigners would have been net buyers in Sep14. Click here for report »