Regional Daily, Maybank KE (2014-10-29)

Daily 29 October 2014 TOP VIEWS Standard Chartered (2888 HK) | Rating change India: US roadshow key takeaways Thailand Property | NEUTRAL CIMB Group (CIMB MK) | Company Update Standard Chartered (2888 HK) Disappointing 3Q; D/G to HOLD Share Price: HKD131.30 | Target Price: HKD137.00 (+4%) | MCap (USD): 41.1B | ADTV (USD): 18M D/G to HOLD, cut TP to HKD137 as well as earnings forecasts. Cut loan growth, NIM & non-interest income projections. Higher credit cost forecasts, partly offset by lower expenses. Click here for report » India: US roadshow key takeaways Confidence on India is growing Strategy update In over five days and 20 meetings, investors appeared unequivocally positive on the India growth story under the stewardship of PM Modi. Investors thought LT sustainable bull market was taking shape in India and next phase of broad-based rally will start when gov�t fulfills its promises on amending Land Acquisition Act, increasing foreign limits in insurance holdings, fixing mining and power sector imbroglio, and implementing GST. Among our Top Picks, clients were keen on Bajaj Auto, Ambuja Cement and Axis Bank. In our mid-cap coverage Eros, Tata Global Bev, Exide and Federal Bank elicited interest. Click here for report » Thailand Property 3Q14F- expect a strong quarter Sector preview Maintain NEUTRAL. Top Picks LPN and QH. BUY AP. LH, PS and SPALI are HOLDs. Forecast 3Q14 sector earnings grew 21.5% QoQ and 42.4% YoY on average to THB7.8b. SPALI should have the strongest QoQ and YoY earnings growth. 9M14 sector earnings should have reached 74% of our full-year forecast. 3Q14 pre-sales surged 34% YoY to THB47b; AP reported the highest YoY growth at 127% to THB8.2b, led by condos. Click here for report » CIMB Group (CIMB MK) No change in merger views Share Price: MYR6.20 | Target Price: MYR7.60 (+23%) | MCap (USD): 15.8B | ADTV (USD): 12M Merger views unchanged � estimated 11% accretion to FY15 EPS, 19% enhancement to BVPS, 0.9ppt ROE dilution. Already have a BUY on RHB (TP: MYR10.45) for exposure to the merger. HOLD maintained on CIMB but it is currently a 2% cheaper entry to the merger based on the 1.38 share swap ratio. Click here for report » COMPANY NOTES Nestle Malaysia (NESZ MK) Marcventures Holdings (MARC PM) | TP revision OSIM International (OSIM SP) | Results review Kiatnakin Bank (KKP TB) | Company update Nestle Malaysia (NESZ MK) Slow and steady Share Price: MYR68.50 | Target Price: MYR63.60 (-7%) | MCap (USD): 4.9B | ADTV (USD): 1M Nestle�s 9M14 domestic sales rose 5.8% YoY, while export sales declined 13.1% YoY. Slip in export sales is not a major concern as the domestic market is still the main earnings driver in the longer term. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged DCF-TP of MYR63.60. Click here for report » Marcventures Holdings (MARC PM) Moving forward after a tumble Share Price: PHP5.75 | Target Price: PHP8.40 (+46%) | MCap (USD): 234M | ADTV (USD): 1M Cut TP 11% to PHP8.40 but maintain BUY as earnings forecast for 2015 and beyond are unchanged. Slash 2014F earnings to PHP810m due to lower volumes (29% down) and grades (17% down). Personnel needed to meet saprolite production and grade targets unavailable when production resumed after ban. Click here for report » OSIM International (OSIM SP) In investing mode Share Price: SGD2.25 | Target Price: SGD2.72 (+21%) | MCap (USD): 1.4B | ADTV (USD): 4M 3Q14 below on weaker topline, higher costs to expand TWG Tea, and legal costs. TWG continues to expand but growing scale should mitigate start-up costs. Cut FY14E-15E EPS by 18% but maintain BUY with lowered TP of SGD2.72 from SGD3.50 (19x FY15E P/E). Click here for report » Kiatnakin Bank (KKP TB) Where is the ST catalyst? Share Price: THB40.75 | Target Price: THB42.00 (+2%) | MCap (USD): 1.1B | ADTV (USD): 2M Maintain HOLD and THB42 TP, implying 9x 2015F PER, 0.9x P/BV and 4.2% dividend yield. Prefer TISCO for small banks. Weak HP loan demand offset by corporate and SME segments; asset quality should gradually improve next year. Cut earnings by 6% in each of FY14/15F on slower loan growth and greater losses from sales of repossessed cars. (Full report will be out soon) ECONOMICS Thailand Economics: Sep exports jumped Sep exports jumped Imports rose first time this year Economics After falling two straight months, Thai exports in Sep jumped 3.19% YoY to USD19.91b, much better than expectations. Imports rose for first time this year; imports of raw materials and intermediate goods as well as capital goods rose. Agri momentum continued; industrial improved; exports to many markets were very positive, except to China. Looking at growth of no more than 1.00% in 2014 as this requires exports of USD20b/month till year-end, which is challenging, and 4.50% in 2015. Click here for report »