Malaysia Daily, Maybank KE (2014-10-08)

Daily 08 October 2014 REGIONAL SECTOR UPDATE Plantations: Neutral Who�s Who FR, BAL and IOI Corp are the most profitable upstream players in 2013 and by inference, the lower cost producers. IOI Corp, Sime, FR, KLK and BAL are least sensitive to CPO price changes. Maintain our 12M NEUTRAL view. CPO price likely to range bound till November before it punches higher in December. Click here for full report » COMPANY UPDATE Axis REIT: Maintain Hold Buys industrial buildings in Johor  Shariah-compliant Latest industrial building acquisition in Iskandar Malaysia is value-enhancing, backed by long-term lease. Raise our FY15/16 earnings forecasts by 5.5%/5.4% to factor in this acquisition. Maintain HOLD; DCF-based TP is raised by 6% to MYR3.34 Click here for full report » ECONOMICS External Trade, Aug 2014 �Improved� vs July 2014 Both exports and imports were better in Aug 2014 vs July 2014 But external trade growth slowed and trade surplus narrowed in Jul-Aug 2014 after the robust 1H 2014 Supporting our view that real GDP growth will taper in 2H 2014 on diminishing contribution from net external demand Click here for full report » Technicals Plunging towards 1,829 and below The FBMKLCI declined 7.28 points to 1,833.54 yesterday, while the FBMEMAS and FBM100 also closed lower by 79.87 points and 61.75 points, respectively. We recommend a �Sell on Rallies� stance for the index. Trading idea is a Take profit call on MRCB with Downside target areas at MYR1.51 & MYR1.41. Click here for full report » Other Local News Banking: Bursa's call.Bursa committee to decide on EPF's right to vote on the mega merger between CIMB, RHB Cap and MBSB as they are soon entering a new phase, with 90-day exclusivity agreement between the three parties ending today. Under the current listing rules, the EPF would have been prevented from voting as it is a substantial shareholder of all three parties. However, it is learnt that RHB Cap and MBSB had written to the regulator to seek a waiver from complying with the rules. (Source: Business Times, The Edge Financial Daily) Oil & Gas: Petronas's LNG project in Canada could be shelved 15 years if tax rebates not given. Petronas warned that if tax incentives from the Canadian government were not acceptable, then it could shelve the project�s implementation by up to 15 years. (Source: The Star) Utilities: 1MDB set to gain USD1b loan to refinance debt. The USD1b one-year loan is to be used to refinance group debt ahead of its power business which is seeking to raise more than USD3b. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily) QL: QL's takeover of Lay Hong turns mandatory as its shareholding in the latter had exceeded 33%. Filings with Bursa showed that QL, between Sept 24 and Oct 2, purchased shares in Lay Hong at prices between MYR3.17 and MYR3.50 a piece. QL added that terms and conditions of the offer will remain the same under the mandatory general offer. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily) Green Packet: Appoints CEO to replace founder Puan. Tan Kay Yen, 42 was appointed as CEO, taking the helm from founder Puan Chan Cheong, 45, who is moving to head Packet One Networks (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd (P1) as its CEO and managing director. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily) Outside Malaysia Global: IMF cuts outlook as risk of 'frothy' stocks raised. The International Monetary Fund cut its outlook for global growth in 2015 and warned about the risks of rising geopolitical tensions and a financial-market correction as stocks reach "frothy" levels. The world economy will grow 3.8% next year, compared with a July forecast for 4%, after a 3.3% expansion this year, the Washington-based IMF said. U.S. growth is helping lead a worldwide acceleration that's weaker than the fund predicted 2 1/2 months ago as the outlooks for the euro area, Brazil, Russia and Japan deteriorate. (Source: Bloomberg) Germany: Industrial production fell more than forecast in August in the latest sign that the outlook for Europe's largest economy is deteriorating. Production, adjusted for seasonal swings, dropped 4% MoM from July, when it expanded 1.6% MoM, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said. (Source: Bloomberg) East Asia: World Bank cuts regions forecast on China. The World Bank lowered its forecasts for growth in developing East Asia this year and next as China's expansion moderates and policy makers' brace for tighter global monetary conditions. The region is forecast to grow 6.9% in 2014 and 2015, down from 7.1% projected in April, the Washington-based lender said in its East Asia and Pacific Economic Update released. China will expand 7.4% this year and 7.2% next year, compared with 7.6% and 7.5% previously forecast, the report showed. (Source: Bloomberg) China: Cuts thousands of �phantom� workers from state payroll. China's government removed tens of thousands of "phantom employees" from state payrolls amid a campaign by President Xi Jinping to crack down on corruption and eliminate waste. A total of 162,629 employees who had continued to draw salaries after leaving their posts were cleared out of central and provincial governments, state-controlled financial companies and universities as of Sept. 25, the official People's Daily reported. The country also disposed of 114,418 government vehicles, it said in a separate report. (Source: Bloomberg) Japan: The Bank of Japan maintained its record stimulus as the yen traded near a six-year low and economists pushed back forecasts for further monetary easing. The central bank kept its pledge to increase the monetary base at an annual pace of JPY 60t to JPY 70t (USD 643b), it said. (Source: Bloomberg) Indonesia: Holds key rate as central bank sees inflation risk. Indonesia's central bank held its key interest rate at 7.5%, keeping monetary policy tight as it signaled vigilance against inflation risks and anticipates an end to U.S. monetary easing. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo and his board kept the reference rate unchanged for an 11th straight meeting, according to a central bank statement in Jakarta. It also kept the deposit facility rate unchanged at 5.75%. (Source: Bloomberg)     Key Indices Value YTD (%) Daily (%) KLCI 1,845.3 (1.2) (0.1) JCI 5,140.9 20.3 0.1 STI 3,264.1 3.1 (0.4) SET 1,587.4 22.2 0.1 HSI 22,933.0 (1.6) 0.0 KOSPI 1,991.5 (1.0) (1.4) TWSE 8,990.3 4.4 0.3 DJIA 16,804.7 1.4 (1.4) S&P 1,946.2 5.3 (1.3) FTSE 6,557.5 (2.8) (1.0) MYR/USD 3.3 (0.1) (0.2) CPO (1mth) 2,210.0 (15.9) (1.0) Crude Oil (1mth) 90.7 (7.8) (0.5) Gold 1,213.8 1.0 0.5 TOP STOCK PICKS Buy rated large caps Price Target Tenaga 12.32 14.00 Axiata 7.01 7.60 Sime Darby 9.18 10.20 Gamuda 4.80 5.30 UMW O&G 3.86 5.15 AFG 4.95 5.50 Perdana Petroleum 1.85 2.55 Hock Seng Lee 1.88 2.25