Special Discounts - a good method to grab undecided customers

Recently I was shopping for a resort to host my company's upcoming retreat. The specification was simple: somewhere beautiful, requires a short plane ride and all inclusive. The resort that I had in mind was Tanjung Rhu Resort in Langkawi. I started inquires about the prices as well as the flight tickets.

Within a space of 4 hours, I have not only committed to the Resort but also booked the flight tickets through MAS. This is not the normal speed for company type purchases. So why the difference?

Special Discounts. Both the resort and MAS suddenly offered a special deal to the company that is nearly 40% and 70% lower, respectively over the standard price. The catch is; the company must commit within 4 hours or the special rates will disappear.

In this case, although I knew what I wanted, it is still not a foregone conclusion that I will go to Tanjung Rhu. Cost matters considerably. Nevertheless, the "special discount" by both the resort and MAS was too good to resist.

On reflection, I realised the power of "special discounts". Although your margin drops considerably if it is offered, the positive angle to it is that you will get a big booking. Sometimes it is not the marginal profit that matters. Bottom-line profit and effective use of company assets should also be looked into.

In the case of the resort, they have sunk cost in terms of the rooms. If a big booking comes in, it makes sense to take up the booking as it ensures a good proportion of the rooms will be occupied. Keeping strictly to the standard rates reduce your potential to monetize your operating assets.

In the case of MAS, taking a big booking now ensures that a number of seat on their plane will be taken. Now, the other seats can be priced at standard rate without the need to offer any further concessions.

Net position - Revenue and profit gain!

Bond Index Monthly Report - January 2011 - Returns in the Malaysian bond market were mixed

Returns in the Malaysian bond market were mixed. Some bond classes fared better while others did not. Government Bonds improved when compared to the returns registered in December 2010 but Corporate Bonds returns moved in the opposite direction. Due to the concerns of the market of another rate hike by BNM, the yield for the bond market has been pushed higher. However, the status-quo in the Malaysian Overnight Policy Rate by BNM on 27 January 2011 did help reverse the hawkish market sentiment hence reducing the yields of the Government papers. Although this has an effect of improving the returns for government bonds, the same has yet to be seen for the corporate bond which tends to lag the Government papers.
Bond Index Monthly Report - January 2011; by Bond Pricing Agency Malaysia

"Betting on election plays" - the power of rumours and market movement

In today's article by The Edge Daily, titled "Betting on election plays", it states the following: "But closer to home, another acronym — GE13, the 13th general election — may well shape up to be a more exciting catalyst for investors on the local bourse......Indeed, the election play is expected to be one of the main investment stories this year and analysts are already betting on which stocks will ride on the theme."

It goes on further to state the following : "...market rallied in periods prior to previous GEs, with gains of at least 9% in the two months before polling day during the 1999 and 2004 elections."

This is a very interesting fact. If one can already prove to the market of such statistics, under efficient market hypothesis, such phenomena should not be seen again as the market players would have acted on the information already.

The only explanation is the most obvious: Market players, especially the retail players have very short memories. The advantage will always be to institutional investors. They will always act first and gain the bulk of the profits as retail players starts to catch up with the trading strategy.

In a nut shell: institutional investors will use the GE13 as an opportunity to milk the retail investors.

Politics and the Economy: a boxing match

The events in Egypt presents a very good case study on the effects of politics on the economy. Since the purpose of this blog is to discuss economics and finance, I would not dwell on the political aspects of the events but instead will look at its implication to the Egyptian economy.

Egypt is well-known for the tourism industry. But not a lot of people know that it also has a very deep processing industry due to its location as well as cheap labour. Many processed food found in the Middle East comes from Egypt.

How did the the protests effectively caused the whole country to grind to a standstill? Was there widespread bloodshed?

All the protesters needed to do was to force the Egyptian Stock Exchange to close. This has a knock-on effect to the banking sector. Since money is the life blood of any economy, the effect of just closing the exchange and banking sectors was enough to cause a nation to stop on its track.

Economic sabotage?

The problem of nationalizing the Toll Roads – who actually pays for it

The talk about the Government buying up the toll roads to enable users to use the roads for free is a very interesting topic which has many hidden problems. It is true that only the Government will have the necessary resources to buy such an asset but it is also true that such resources must come from somewhere.

The first problem is of asset allocation.

The suggested asset to be purchased is specific with specific contribution to the national economy as well as to a specific section of the population. One important question that should be asked: will it benefit the general population? Definitely NOT. Ask the people from Sabah, Sarawak, Kelantan, Terengganu, and Pahang. Do they get any direct benefit from it?

If you get the Government to allocate a substantial amount of asset for the purchase of the toll roads, some other parts of the national service machinery will have to suffer. Education? Medical? Security? Can we actually afford to give this subsidy when it will impact the general living standards of all Malaysians?

The second problem is maximization.

Free market economy dictates that resources should go to activities that can maximize its potential. Governments do not operate under the same mindset. If Governments have the same thinking, we would not have schools in the rural areas nor will we have security in the vast majority of towns in Malaysia as all will be concentrated in Kuala Lumpur. Let free market operate under the maximization axiom and let Government focuses on providing basis services. This two should not mix.

The final problem is cost.

It is not cheap to buy a major asset such as the toll roads. The Government will have to borrow and this will affect our economy. For the benefit of a few, the whole country will have to take the burden.

THIS IS NOT FAIR!

Economy Efficiency: definitions

Before I start my argument against nationalization, it would be best to look at the definitions of the key points that would be the basis of my argument. Let us start with the term: Economy Efficiency. This is defined as:

In economics, the term economic efficiency refers to the use of resources so as to maximize the production of goods and services. An economic system is said to be more efficient than another (in relative terms) if it can provide more goods and services for society without using more resources. In absolute terms, a situation can be called economically efficient if:

• No one can be made better off without making someone else worse off.
• No additional output can be obtained without increasing the amount of inputs.
• Production proceeds at the lowest possible per-unit cost.

These definitions of efficiency are not exactly equivalent, but they are all encompassed by the idea that a system is efficient if nothing more can be achieved given the resources available.

There are two main strains in economic thought on economic efficiency, which respectively emphasize the distortions created by governments (and reduced by decreasing government involvement) and the distortions created by markets (and reduced by increasing government involvement). These are at times competing, at times complementary – either debating the overall level of government involvement, or the effects of specific government involvement. Broadly speaking, this dialog is referred to as Economic liberalism or neoliberalism, though these terms are also used more narrowly to refer to particular views, especially advocating laissez faire.

Further, there are differences in views on microeconomic versus macroeconomic efficiency, some advocating a greater role for government in one sphere or the other.

Common views

The mainstream view is that market economies are generally believed to be more efficient than other known alternatives and that government involvement is necessary at the macroeconomic level (via fiscal policy and monetary policy) to counteract the economic cycle – following Keynesian economics. At the microeconomic level there is debate about how to maximize efficiency, with some advocating laissez faire, to remove government distortions, while others advocate regulation, to reduce market failures and imperfections, particularly via internalizing externalities.

The first fundamental welfare theorem provides some basis for the belief in efficiency of market economies, as it states that any perfectly competitive market equilibrium is Pareto efficient. Strictly speaking, however, this result is only valid in the absence of market imperfections, which are significant in real markets. Furthermore, Pareto efficiency is a minimal notion of optimality and does not necessarily result in a socially desirable distribution of resources, as it makes no statement about equality or the overall well-being of a society. 

Schools of thought

Advocates of limited government, in the form laissez faire (little or no government role in the economy) follow from the 19th century philosophical tradition classical liberalism, and are particularly associated with the mainstream economic schools of classical economics (through the 1870s) and neoclassical economics (from the 1870s onwards), and with the heterodox Austrian school.

Advocates of an expanded government role follow instead in alternative streams of liberalism; in the Anglosphere (English-speaking countries, notably the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand) this is associated with Institutional economics and, at the macroeconomic level, with Keynesian economics. In Germany the guiding philosophy is Ordoliberalism, in the Freiburg School of economics.

Economics of Nationalisation: Misdirected allocation of national resources

I read with interest a number of comments being made in the newspapers regarding plans to nationalise the PLUS toll road. On a purely economic argument, such plans will do more harm than good.

Advocates for nationalisation usually will argue using the following theme:

1.       Weaknesses of the free market / private sector

a.       Free market price mechanism too volatile/uncertain;

b.      Efficiency gains in a private enterprise can come at expense of customer;

2.       Public ownership to meet economic & social targets

a.       Not for profit businesses – social aims / public interest;

b.      Natural monopoly arguments - in the interests of consumers;

c.       Quality of service: For example if medical service is private, rural households would lose out due to cost and location.

3.       Employment protection

a.       e.g. bank collapses – responding to the problems of systemic risk;

4.       Strategic justifications

a.       e.g. nuclear power, airlines

5.       Public sector can be a vehicle for macro-control

a.       Pay restraint

b.      Employment at different stages of the economic cycle

However, it is also worth mentioning that the world has become a global village with modern infrastructure in place/to be put in place. Markets are getting very efficient and there are ways and means to deliver the necessary services and products based on spending capacity. Due to the phenomenal changes in the market place, the following is the counter-argument.

a.       Cost to government/tax payer (opportunity cost)

b.      Inefficiencies arising from government ownership - inefficiency, weak productivity growth

c.       Overinvestment + Diseconomies of scale (overstaffing)

d.      Government has poor track record with efficient project management or budget control

e.      Public sector has poor record on industrial relations -often at direct cost to the consumer and to small businesses.

f.        Moral hazard if state owned industries cannot go bust in the usual way

g.       Poor record on customer service in some public enterprises

h.      Rate of Return regulation / Price Cap regulation could be used instead of full-blown nationalisation

i.         Promotes unfair playing fields

j.        Grey area on legislation on competition

k.       Political priorities can over-ride commercial issues on capital projects (regulatory capture?)

To argue convincingly, we need to apply some key concepts to the issue. For example:

• ·         Economic efficiency
• ·         Funding versus delivery of key public services
• ·         Public private partnerships
• ·         The role of regulatory agencies acting as surrogate competitor
• ·         State aid

My next posting will be on the argument why market would be the better judge of business instead of the Government.

Sometimes it makes sense to shop for your car insurance

It is now coming up a year since I got my new car. As usual, a new car insurance (or renewal) will have to be purchased before the authority issues a new road tax for the car. But which insurer should one go to?
As expected, the current insurer sent me a reminder. Interestingly, the end-financier for the car also sent me an introduction to another insurer.

In Malaysia, the rate for car insurance is standard. What makes the difference in the service as well as the other add-ons that comes with it. In this case, the difference between the incumbent insurer and the new one is a whopping RM600! This prompted me to do my investigation further.

The first thing that I noticed is that the original insurer did not reduce the sum assured for the car. It assumes the value of the car is the same as what it was a year ago while the second one did its homework and only quoted what they deemed as the current value of the car now. The second thing that I noticed is that the second insurer has a lot of add-ons that does not seem to be cost effective for the buyer. The third and final thing that I noticed is that these two insurers did not offer the expected 10% discount. This could only imply that the purchase still went through an agent.

To give myself some certainty, I approached the insurer that I have been using for the last 10 years for a quote. Surprisingly, I was given a smaller quote due to the actual market value of the car. Moreover, the windscreen cover was also cheaper, also using the actual market price. Finally, an additional discount of 10% was given as I was considered a “walk-in” customer. All-in-all, the insurer that I finally signed up with was RM1,000 cheaper from the first insurer.

Moral of the story: do shop around even for car insurance. It does pay!

The Bond Market League Tabled for 2010

The Bond Market League Tabled for 2010 by Bond Pricing Agency Malaysia.

The Bond Market League Tabled for 2010

Article: The Robust Bond Market - The Star - 01 Jan 2011

This was the article at the start of the new year that published my comments regarding the direction of the bond market for 2011.



Article: The Robust Bond Market - The Star - 01 Jan 2011