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Economic
Research
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09 March 2017
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China
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Economic
Update
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China reported
its first monthly trade deficit since Feb 2014, given rapidly falling
exports, which were distorted by the Lunar New Year. However, import
growth remained strong amid recovery in up/mid-stream industries and a low
base effect. Looking ahead, we expect milder trade growth in March/April, as
the base of comparison rises. In addition, we believe there may be headwinds
from trade protectionism policies in the US,
and the start of de-stocking process in China in 2H17. On currency, we
believe CNY would likely depreciate again in the near term due to forthcoming
US
rate hikes, although the rate of decline is likely to be less given the tough
stance from President Trump.
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Thursday, March 9, 2017
First Monthly Trade Deficit In Three Years, Unlikely To Persist
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