|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR3.95
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR4.50
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3QFY17 results
within expectations
|
|
While higher investment costs are likely to contribute to
flat earnings in FY18, we view these investments as a necessary step
towards extending the group’s overall value proposition and reach to
the SME/retail customer segments. We expect FY18 ROE to hold up above
10% and for its strong fundamentals and niche in the SME segment, we
continue to rate AFG a BUY with an unchanged TP of MYR4.50 (CY17 PBV of
1.3x).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Mar (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Operating income
|
1,383.0
|
1,424.1
|
1,501.7
|
1,542.6
|
|
Pre-provision profit
|
736.1
|
735.2
|
801.6
|
813.8
|
|
Core net profit
|
530.8
|
522.0
|
531.4
|
529.3
|
|
Core FDEPS (MYR)
|
0.35
|
0.34
|
0.35
|
0.35
|
|
Core FDEPS growth(%)
|
(5.3)
|
(1.7)
|
1.8
|
(0.4)
|
|
Net DPS (MYR)
|
0.15
|
0.14
|
0.17
|
0.16
|
|
Core FD P/E (x)
|
11.4
|
11.6
|
11.4
|
11.4
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.3
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
1.1
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.9
|
3.7
|
4.2
|
4.2
|
|
Book value (MYR)
|
2.95
|
3.17
|
3.35
|
3.53
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
12.3
|
11.2
|
10.7
|
10.1
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR6.14
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR5.90
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Subdued earnings
outlook
|
|
FY16 results were within expectations, and reflected the
ongoing impairment of Webe’s legacy assets. Near-term earnings outlook
remains subdued with Webe likely remaining EBITDA-negative in 2017-18.
TM’s investment case continues to straddle between concept
(fixed-mobile convergence) and reality (the associated earnings drag).
Maintain HOLD with a lower TP of MYR5.90 (-5%).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
11,721.6
|
12,060.9
|
12,488.0
|
12,990.4
|
|
EBITDA
|
3,677.0
|
3,820.0
|
3,921.2
|
4,156.9
|
|
Core net profit
|
894.9
|
847.9
|
764.5
|
783.6
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
23.8
|
22.6
|
20.3
|
20.9
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(8.1)
|
(5.3)
|
(9.8)
|
2.5
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
21.4
|
21.5
|
18.6
|
18.8
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
25.8
|
27.2
|
30.2
|
29.4
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
3.0
|
3.0
|
3.0
|
2.9
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.5
|
3.5
|
3.0
|
3.1
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
9.1
|
10.0
|
9.9
|
10.1
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
3.8
|
3.4
|
3.0
|
3.1
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
7.9
|
7.1
|
7.4
|
7.1
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
45.7
|
64.0
|
77.0
|
79.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
Chi Wei Tan
|
|
|
|
Syairah Malek
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR11.08
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR11.20
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
A strong finish
in 2016
|
|
Core PATMI was above expectations while reported PATMI was
further boosted by land disposal gains. While we look forward to a
better 2017, its recent price appreciation has reflected its near term
growth potential. GENP remains a HOLD, given limited upside to our new
TP of MYR11.20 pegged at 26x 2017 PER, its 5-year historical mean
(previously RNAV-TP of MYR10.18). We change our valuation method as we
believe the PER method will better reflect its earnings expectations.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,374.9
|
1,480.1
|
1,662.2
|
1,901.8
|
|
EBITDA
|
358.7
|
536.3
|
566.8
|
735.3
|
|
Core net profit
|
205.7
|
295.3
|
342.2
|
469.5
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
26.3
|
37.2
|
43.1
|
59.1
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(46.7)
|
41.5
|
15.9
|
37.2
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
5.5
|
21.0
|
8.6
|
11.8
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
42.2
|
29.8
|
25.7
|
18.7
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
2.1
|
1.9
|
1.8
|
1.7
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
0.5
|
1.9
|
0.8
|
1.1
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
4.7
|
8.3
|
7.1
|
9.1
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
3.2
|
3.9
|
4.3
|
5.6
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
24.9
|
17.6
|
16.6
|
12.5
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
8.1
|
11.8
|
7.4
|
3.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR0.41
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR0.45
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fabulous 2016
but more challenging 2017 looms
|
|
2016 core net profit was MY206m (vs. loss of MYR210m in
2015) after adjusting for one-off items, FX-translation and AAX’s share
of losses in associates. This was ahead of our expectations but in-line
with consensus. We raise our FY17-18 earnings forecasts by +6.9% and
+3.9% on the latest capacity output and fuel hedge ratio guidance. As
such, we raise our TP to MYR0.45 (+3 sen) based on an unchanged 8x 2017
PER, which is the bottom of the typical airline cycle of 8-15x.
Maintain HOLD.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
3,062.6
|
4,006.5
|
4,190.3
|
4,531.2
|
|
EBITDAR
|
813.4
|
1,235.6
|
1,284.8
|
1,343.8
|
|
Core net profit
|
(209.6)
|
206.0
|
248.0
|
299.3
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
(6.2)
|
5.0
|
6.0
|
7.2
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
nm
|
nm
|
20.4
|
20.7
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
nm
|
8.4
|
6.9
|
5.8
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
2.3
|
1.6
|
1.3
|
1.1
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
(49.1)
|
24.8
|
21.8
|
21.1
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
(5.5)
|
4.8
|
5.4
|
5.9
|
|
EV/EBITDAR (x)
|
2.1
|
1.8
|
1.7
|
2.2
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
179.7
|
68.5
|
36.4
|
75.8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR2.42
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR3.15
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4Q16 trounced
expectations
|
|
A 70% QoQ jump in JV and associates’ income cumulatively
lifted MBM’s 4Q16 core net profit to MYR36m (record profit in the last
14 quarters) to surprise the market on the upside. We lift our FY17/18
net profit forecast marginally by 1%-3% on higher associates’ income
and introduce our FY19 earnings forecast. Rolling forward our
valuations to FY18, our TP is raised to MYR3.15 (+5%) on an unchanged
10x PER peg. Reiterate BUY on MBM for its exposure to Perodua.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,815.1
|
1,680.7
|
1,878.1
|
1,980.9
|
|
EBITDA
|
49.7
|
(21.6)
|
33.3
|
34.2
|
|
Core net profit
|
87.6
|
97.6
|
118.2
|
123.0
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
22.4
|
25.0
|
30.2
|
31.5
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(21.9)
|
11.5
|
21.0
|
4.1
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
10.0
|
6.0
|
8.0
|
8.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
10.8
|
9.7
|
8.0
|
7.7
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
0.5
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
4.1
|
2.5
|
3.3
|
3.3
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
5.4
|
3.9
|
7.2
|
7.1
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
3.7
|
4.2
|
4.9
|
4.9
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
28.2
|
nm
|
44.1
|
42.6
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
8.8
|
10.9
|
10.3
|
8.6
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR2.03
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR2.25
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3QFY17: FMCG the
main driver
|
|
3QFY3/17 results came in above expectations mainly due to
stronger-than-expected FMCG export sales. Moving forward, we expect
FMCG to continue to be the main driver of growth, riding on the
expansion of export sales into Greater China. As for F&B, we believe
that cost management is crucial as consumers continue to economize. We
raise our earnings forecasts by 13-15% for FY17-19. Our TP is raised to
MYR2.25 on rolling forward valuations (+30sen; unchanged 14.8x mean
FY18 PER).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Mar (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
397.7
|
393.4
|
438.7
|
480.3
|
|
EBITDA
|
82.9
|
84.7
|
102.1
|
107.9
|
|
Core net profit
|
51.0
|
55.3
|
65.7
|
70.4
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
11.2
|
11.9
|
14.2
|
15.2
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
4.2
|
6.1
|
18.8
|
7.2
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
6.0
|
9.0
|
7.8
|
8.4
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
18.1
|
17.0
|
14.3
|
13.4
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
2.7
|
2.6
|
2.4
|
2.2
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.0
|
4.4
|
3.8
|
4.1
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
14.2
|
15.0
|
17.4
|
17.3
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
11.8
|
12.5
|
14.0
|
14.0
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
8.2
|
6.4
|
7.6
|
6.9
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR4.45
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR4.10
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Better from here
on?
|
|
4Q16 results came in below expectations on
higher-than-expected raw sugar costs. Into 2017, we believe margins
could gradually improve on better ASPs through cost past through (eg.
to the industries segment; 39% of volume mix). Upside risk would
include the upward adjustments or the removal of domestic retail
ceiling sugar prices (MYR2.84/kg).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
2,307.3
|
2,658.4
|
2,744.8
|
3,068.9
|
|
EBITDA
|
384.1
|
191.6
|
261.3
|
322.3
|
|
Core net profit
|
271.1
|
120.7
|
151.8
|
177.3
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
38.6
|
17.2
|
21.6
|
25.2
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
5.5
|
(55.5)
|
25.7
|
16.8
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
26.0
|
10.3
|
13.0
|
15.1
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
11.5
|
25.9
|
20.6
|
17.6
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.5
|
1.6
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
5.8
|
2.3
|
2.9
|
3.4
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
13.8
|
6.0
|
7.5
|
8.5
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
10.3
|
4.1
|
4.3
|
4.5
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
9.9
|
19.4
|
14.2
|
11.5
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
14.9
|
8.0
|
28.4
|
27.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Glomac (GLMC MK)
by Wei Sum
Wong
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR0.71
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR0.76
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9MFY4/17 results
below expectations
|
|
Glomac’s 9MFY4/17 results came in below expectations, with
weaker core net profit -53% YoY. Glomac sold MYR204m worth of
properties in 9MFY4/17 and sales are expected to pick up in 4QFY4/17
supported by MYR696m worth of new launches. We lower our earnings forecasts
by 16-26%. We maintain HOLD with a lower RNAV-TP of MYR0.76 (-6sen) on
an unchanged 60% discount to MYR1.91 RNAV (-14 sen).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Apr (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
473.3
|
598.9
|
535.2
|
829.4
|
|
EBITDA
|
172.0
|
157.0
|
191.6
|
168.9
|
|
Core net profit
|
54.8
|
70.2
|
52.8
|
87.9
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
7.6
|
9.7
|
7.3
|
12.2
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(41.2)
|
28.7
|
(24.8)
|
66.6
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
4.3
|
4.0
|
2.2
|
3.7
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
9.4
|
7.3
|
9.8
|
5.9
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.6
|
0.5
|
0.5
|
0.4
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
5.9
|
5.6
|
3.1
|
5.1
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
3.1
|
3.6
|
2.5
|
3.8
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
6.8
|
6.2
|
4.3
|
5.5
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
42.1
|
30.2
|
21.5
|
29.1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR6.49
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR4.55
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Sell
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Competition
eases
|
|
4Q16 operational earnings remained weak but bottomline
surpassed expectations on the recognition of a huge tax credit. While
we think LMC’s earnings have bottomed, any meaningful recovery will be
capped by capacity overhang as cement demand is only expected to grow
by only 3% in 2017 (2016E: c.-6%). Maintain our earnings forecasts,
SELL call and TP of MYR4.55 (26x 2017 EPS), pending an analyst briefing
today.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
2,750.8
|
2,552.2
|
2,609.6
|
2,816.6
|
|
EBITDA
|
509.4
|
302.1
|
427.1
|
500.7
|
|
Core net profit
|
251.0
|
84.9
|
148.8
|
202.1
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Core EPS (sen)
|
29.5
|
10.0
|
17.5
|
23.8
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Core EPS growth (%)
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(1.9)
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(66.2)
|
75.2
|
35.9
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Net DPS (sen)
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31.0
|
5.0
|
16.6
|
22.6
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Core P/E (x)
|
22.0
|
64.9
|
37.1
|
27.3
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P/BV (x)
|
1.8
|
1.8
|
1.8
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1.8
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Net dividend yield (%)
|
4.8
|
0.8
|
2.6
|
3.5
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ROAE (%)
|
8.1
|
2.5
|
4.9
|
6.6
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ROAA (%)
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6.0
|
2.0
|
3.5
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4.7
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EV/EBITDA (x)
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14.9
|
20.7
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13.1
|
11.0
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Net debt/equity (%)
|
1.0
|
4.6
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2.8
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0.2
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MACRO RESEARCH
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Shot up to 3.2% YoY
by
Suhaimi Ilias
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Headline inflation rate in Jan 2017 jumped to +3.2%
YoY (Dec 2016: +1.8% YoY) while core inflation rose moderately to
+2.3% YoY (Dec 2016: +2.1% YoY). Revised our full-year inflation rate
forecast to 3.0%-3.5% from +2.5% previously (2016: +2.1%).
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Suhaimi Ilias
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|
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Zamros
Dzulkafli
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Steady at USD95b
by
Suhaimi Ilias
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External reserves as at 15 February 2017 was the same
as at end-Jan 2017 i.e. USD95b, indicating offsetting outflows and
inflows amid the implementation of BNM’s measure to boost external
reserves via repatriation of export earnings, net foreign buying of Malaysian
equities and net foreign selling of Malaysian bonds. The latest count
equivalent to 8.4 months of retained imports and 1.1 times of
short-term external debt
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Suhaimi Ilias
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Zamros
Dzulkafli
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Phi, the golden ratio
by Tee
Sze Chiah
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FBMKLCI rose 1.53pts to close at 1,708.08 amid a
renewed interest in key blue-chip stocks. Broader market was also
positive with gainers outpacing losers by 474 to 389. Trading volume
of 2.69b worth MYR2.75b was recorded yesterday. Despite yesterday’s
rebound, FBMKLCI is still vulnerable to further correction as
follow-through was not convincing. We maintain our expectation that
the benchmark index may head lower, possibly towards our expected
range of 1,700 to 1,712.
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NEWS
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Outside Malaysia:
U.S: Existing home sales rise more than forecast as supply
drops, indicating housing-market momentum will extend into 2017, National
Association of Realtors data showed. Contract closings rose 3.3% to a
5.69 million annual rate in January (forecast was 5.55 million), the
highest level since February 2007. Median sales price jumped 7.1% YoY to
USD 228,900, the fastest gain since January 2016. Inventory of available
properties fell 7.1% YoY to 1.69 million, making it the 20th consecutive
year-over-year decline. (Source: Bloomberg)
Germany: Business confidence unexpectedly improved,
underpinning the Bundesbank’s prediction that economic growth
strengthened at the start of the year. The Munich-based Ifo institute’s
business climate index rose to 111 in February from a revised 109.9 in
January. (Source: Bloomberg)
Germany: January tax revenue rises 4% YoY, finance
ministry says. Germany’s increase in January revenue driven by income tax
and value-added tax, Finance Ministry says in monthly report. German
economy’s expansion likely to continue in 2017, with consumer spending a
main source of growth, boosted by continued hiring and wage gains. Low
interest rates, euro’s exchange rate benefit domestic demand. (Source:
Bloomberg)
U.K: Economy grew more than previously estimated in the
final three months of 2016 but it may be the last hurrah. GDP rose 0.7%
instead of 0.6%, the Office for National Statistics said. It followed
growth of 0.6% in the previous two quarters. Trade and consumer spending
provided the biggest contributions as business investment fell. The
willingness of consumers to spend has kept the economy going since the
Brexit vote but signs of strain are now appearing as accelerating
inflation squeezes household incomes. Credit growth slowed sharply in December
and retail sales grew at their slowest annual pace in more than three
years in January, recent figures showed. (Source: Bloomberg)
Japan: Bought net JPY 48.2b in overseas debt last week.
Japanese investors were net buyers of foreign bonds during the week ended
Feb. 17 according to figures released by the Ministry of Finance in
Tokyo. Local investors bought JPY 48.2b (USD 425) in overseas bonds &
notes and JPY164.9b in overseas stocks. Foreign investors sold JPY 141.2b
in Japanese bonds while selling JPY127.9b in Japanese stocks. (Source:
Bloomberg)
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Other News:
Oil and Gas: Petronas, Saudi Aramco may sign new deal on
refinery project. Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) and Saudi Aramco are
expected to sign an agreement to collaborate in the country's Refinery
and Petrochemical Integrated Development (RAPID) project, two industry
sources said yesterday. Both parties appear to be closer to agreeing to
terms after sources told Reuters last month that Aramco had decided to
suspend its partnership with Petronas in the refining and petrochemical
complex in the southeast of the country. The signing is expected to take
place on Monday, said one of the sources with knowledge of the matter who
declined to be identified, during a visit by Saudi Arabia's King Salman
to Malaysia. Saudi Aramco declined to comment and Petronas was not
immediately available for comment. (Source: Reuters)
Econpile Holdings: Clinched MYR570m contract from Malton,
order book at record high. The company has clinched its single-largest
contract to date, worth MYR570.4m, for works at the Pavilion Damansara
Heights development here. The contract, which would see it undertake
piling and basement substructure works for the mixed project, was awarded
to its wholly-owned unit Econpile (M) Sdn Bhd on Feb 21, from Domain
Resources Sdn Bhd. The contract is for a duration of 28 months. With the
new contract, its order book is now at a record-high of MYR1.4b, to be
recognised over the next two years. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)
SapuraKencana: Secures USD1.5b financing facilities.
Through its unit SapuraKencana TMC Sdn Bhd, has signed a seven-year
USD1.5b (MYR6.68b) multi-currency financing facilities with a consortium
of Malaysian, regional and international banks. In a statement yesterday,
the oil and gas service provider said the proceeds from the facility would
be used to partially refinance existing borrowings. It involves raising
about USD658m (MYR2.93b) via a new conventional term loan facility and
issuing about MYR3.6b of unrated sukuk under the existing 30-year
multi-currency sukuk programme of up to MYR7b in nominal value. The
refinancing exercise is part of the group’s proactive capital management
initiative that will support their global operations. (Source: The Star)
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